'Multiplier' puts economic impact at $2.9B for St. Louis mass transit expansion

(The Center Square) – Building and operating an extension of a mass transit line in St. Louis would result in billions in construction spending, create jobs and bring economic development, according to a report prepared by a local university.

The word, “multiplier,” is used 20 times throughout a 14-page document projecting the impact of the project. It projected $58.5 million in economic activity during the line’s first five years.

“Over the seven years of projected construction of the Green Line, there would be a cumulative direct and multiplier impact of almost $2.9 billion in the Missouri economy,” measured in 2024 dollars, according to the report commissioned by Citizens for Modern Transit. The study was prepared by the Saint Louis University Community Planning Lab within the Department of Earth, Environmental and Geospatial Science of the School of Science and Engineering.

An ongoing analysis by a libertarian organization in Missouri states the reports numbers are questionable.

“When they start claiming $2.9 billion and all these jobs, they’re just trying to gin up excitement,” David Stokes, director of municipal policy at the Show-Me Institute, said in an interview with The Center Square. “When looking at competing projects at the federal level, they’re not going to move near the number of people and 5,000 riders is an underwhelming amount for a billion-dollar project.”

The proposed 5.6-mile extension to St. Louis’ current mass transit system would impact statewide economic activity, household earnings and jobs during construction and when operations begin, according to the study. It projected construction of the line to be completed by 2030.

“The price tag associated with the development of the St. Louis MetroLink Green Line is significant,” Kimberly Cella, executive director of Citizens for Modern Transit, said in a statement. “It is imperative that area leaders, stakeholders, transit riders and the community at-large better understand the ripple effects of an infrastructure investment of this magnitude. The projected impacts cannot be understated – it would be a huge win for the region.”

Stokes stated the current lack of riders on bus routes in the area shows the project isn’t relevant.

“It seems there was this huge pot of federal money available and they came up with a plan because they want the federal money,” Stokes said. “They don't have a good plan that they needed money for. So they came up with the plan to apply for it.”

The study estimated an annual average of more than $121.6 million in additional household earnings resulting in a cumulative amount of $850 million during the seven-year project. The annual average of jobs is projected to be 1,690 with a peak of 3,920 jobs in 2027. The line’s operations are predicted to have 100 direct and indirect jobs.

The Federal Transit Administration approved the project’s development application, according to Citizens for Mass Transit.

“If awarded, this will enable the request of federal funding to cover up to 60% of the total project costs, potentially bringing as much as $600 million back to the St. Louis region for capital expansion,” Cella said.