Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (41-42) welcome the Washington Nationals (39-43) to Tropicana Field Sunday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Rays are 22-25 at home after losing 8-1 to the Nationals 8-1 Saturday after winning the opening game of the series 3-1. Tampa Bay has won 4 of its last 6 games. It has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 6. The Rays are 38-45 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Nationals are 22-24 on the road and have played 8 straight away games, going 3-5 in those. Washington’s offense has been clicking as of late, scoring at least 5 runs in 4 of its last 5 games. The Nationals are 48-34 ATS.

Nationals at Rays projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Taj Bradley

Corbin (1-7, 5.46 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 89 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 7-6 road loss to the San Diego Padres Monday
• 2024 away splits: 1-4, 5.29 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 4 HR, 5.7 K/9 in 9 starts
• Career vs. Rays: 0-1, 7.36 ERA (11 IP, 9 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 4.9 K/9 in 2 starts

Bradley (2-4, 3.81 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 8 K in a 4-3 home win over the Seattle Mariners Monday
• 2024 home splits: 1-3, 2.04 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 4 HR, 12.5 K/9 in 6 starts
• First time facing Nationals

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Nationals at Rays odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Nationals +154 (bet $100 to win $154) | Rays -184 (bet $184 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+116)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Nationals at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6, Nationals 3

PASS.

The Rays are too expensive to take on the moneyline. For the Nationals, they have struggled to win as of late, yet all signs point to being worth the risk on the run line here.

BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-140).

The Nationals are among the best teams at covering in the MLB. They are the 6th-best road-covering team at 28-18 ATS and their 41-26 ATS as an underdog ranks in the top half of the MLB. Despite Corbin’s struggles, he still is a 2-time All-Star pitcher and should be able to turn it around.

For the Rays, Bradley’s last 3 starts have resulted in a 1-run spread. Tampa Bay is also the 2nd-worst home-covering team at just 16-31 ATS. Considering those trends, back NATIONALS +1.5 (-140).

BET OVER 8 (-105).

The Nationals have gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games, scoring at least 5 runs in 4 of those 5. They are 5-2 O/U in Corbin’s last 7 starts and are 6-2 O/U in their last 8 on the road.

The Rays are 42-37-3 O/U on the season and are 2-1-1 O/U in their last 4. Tampa Bay sits 6th in the majors in Over-hitting rate at home with a 24-20-3 O/U record. With that in mind, back OVER 8 (-105).

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