Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (58-40) welcome the Tampa Bay Rays (48-48) to Yankee Stadium Friday to kick off a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 5-4

The Yankees won 2 of 3 games at the Baltimore Orioles before the All-Star break. However, they lost 6-5 as -113 favorites in the series finale Sunday as the Over (9) hit. New York has struggled in July, going just 4-8 over 12 games. It is 25-19 at home this season and 52-46 against the spread (ATS) overall.

The Rays offense struggled heading into the break, but that hasn’t mattered much, as they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games. Tampa Bay won 2 of 3 home games against the Cleveland Guardians in its last series July 12-14 while scoring exactly 2 runs in each outing. It is 21-21 on the road this season, 45-51 ATS overall, and 4-2 ATS over its last 6 games.

Rays at Yankees projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Eflin (5-6, 3.99 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 99 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 home setback to Yankees July 10
• 2024 away splits: 2-4, 5.37 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 8 HR, 7.3 K/9 in 10 starts
• Career vs. Yankees: 3-2, 1.50 ERA (42 IP, 7 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 7 starts, including 0-1 with 0.69 ERA (13 IP, 1 ER) in 2 starts this year

Cole (2-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 23 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-1 road victory over Orioles July 12
• 2024 home splits: 0-0, 6.48 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 1 HR, 14.0 K/9 in 2 starts
• Career vs. Rays (regular season): 4-7, 3.55 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 in 19 starts, including 2-0 with 3.65 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts last season

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Rays at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:58 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Rays +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Yankees -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread : Rays +1.5 (-146) | Yankees -1.5 (+122)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Rays at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Rays 2

Moneyline

PASS .

The Yankees (-172) are strong favorites here, and they are too expensive to take on the moneyline. Considering the Rays’ offensive woes, they aren’t worth taking as plus-money road underdogs.

Run line/Against the spread

BET YANKEES -1.5 ( +122 ).

In Cole’s last 3 outings, he has started to figure it out. He allowed 8 ER in his 1st 2 starts but has given up a combined 6 ER in his last 2, including just 1 ER in 2 of his last 3 outings. The Yankees have covered in Cole’s last 3 starts.

New York is 3-2 ATS over its last 5 games and 19-22 ATS (which ranks in the top-3rd of the league) as a home favorite. The Rays rank in the bottom half of the league in covering as underdogs at just 24-20 ATS.

Considering those trends, take YANKEES -1.5 ( +122 ).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 ( -105 ).

Both teams will have solid pitchers open the game. The Yankees have gone Under in 2 of Cole’s last 3 starts and are 2-4-1 O/U in their last 7 games, allowing just 1 run in 3 of their last 5.

The Rays have gone Under in 3 straight games and are 3-9-1 O/U in their last 13. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games and allowed 2 or fewer 3 times over that span.

Given both teams’ recent performances, back UNDER 8 ( -105 ).

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