"The Vance effect among independents is negative": How Trump's running mate is a drag on the ticket

Over the last few weeks, the political ground has been moving under the feet of the American people (and the world). We “the Americans” are still trying to regain our balance and make sense of it all. In a turn of events that one would likely not believe if they saw it in a movie or TV show or read it in a book, in rapid succession President Biden was soundly defeated by Donald Trump in what would be their first and only debate. Trump then survived an assassination attempt and was coronated as a type of god-king by the Republicans at their national convention. Several days later, President Biden stepped aside and passed the torch for his party in the 2024 election to Vice President Kamala Harris. Donald Trump was winning in the polls by such a margin that a landslide victory in November was looking more likely than not. Now, matters have changed dramatically, and in such an extreme way that it is now Trump and the Republicans who are lagging behind Harris and the Democrats.

A series of new polls show Harris leading Trump by a significant margin nationally. In addition, Harris is leading Trump in five of the key battleground states as well. At this early point, she also has more paths to victory in the Electoral College than Trump.

Given the ex-president’s cantankerous and what appears to be an increasingly unwell mental and emotional state — even by his already low standards where deviance is a baseline — he is reacting to this change in political fortunes very poorly. It is being reported that Donald Trump is lashing out at his campaign advisors and replacing several of them, increasingly paranoid and full of rage, and increasingly detached from reality. Hitler retreated to his bunker and became increasingly delusional after six years of war; Donald Trump is acting like a mad king after only two weeks of seeing his political fortunes rapidly blunted and then apparently reversed.

In an attempt to go beyond the too-much-discussed “vibes” about the current state of the 2024 election and what may happen next, I recently spoke with Mike Kulisheck. He is Managing Director of BSG, a consulting and strategic research firm that worked as Barack Obama's pollster during the 2012 presidential campaign.

Kulisheck explains what he has learned from new polling and focus group research about the presidential contest between Vice President Harris and Donald Trump how the public’s emotions and moods have been impacted by these tumultuous last few weeks in American politics, and in what ways Harris’ personhood and identity as the first Black and South Asian woman to be a major party’s presidential nominee is impacting voters’ decisions to support her or not.

At the end of this conversation, Kulisheck shares his warnings about what Harris must avoid going forward if she is to defeat Trump and win the White House. Kulisheck also offers advice for Donald Trump about the need for him to remain disciplined and on message if he is to have any chance of clawing his way back into the 2024 presidential race and defeating Kamala Harris.

Given this onslaught of events these last few weeks how are you feeling? How are you making sense of it all?

In politics, whiplash is usually the result of spin. This summer the whiplash was real. When we talked earlier this year, I said that politicos should be planning for low-probability events this election cycle. We had three extremely low-probability events in a row! Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance was followed by an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and then the lowest probability event: the president bowing out and endorsing his vice president. Making sense of the past two months is the wrong frame. It’s been about just keeping up.

How was this reflected in the public opinion data? What is the story the data is telling us?

Polling in June and July was extremely relevant as the country struggled to make sense of what was going on. The country is divided, and voters are sorted into camps, but polling over the summer showed how big events can still shape people’s attitudes, priorities, and preferences in real time.

Our polling immediately after the debate revealed voters’ deep concerns about Joe Biden’s ability to serve a second term and manage the responsibilities of the presidency based on his debate performance. Voters watched the debate, paid attention, and reevaluated their choices. Polling about how Democrats and Independents were interpreting the debate helped drive the conversation that led to the president eventually dropping out.

Trump’s assassination attempt led into the Republican convention, which was defined by the GOP’s jubilant confidence about their candidate and the matchup against a damaged Joe Biden. As Republicans celebrated and Democrats struggled, polling showed an election breaking clearly in Trump’s favor.

When Biden passed the torch to Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party fell in line (and in love), and the race reset again. In our early August polling, we see voters looking at Harris with fresh eyes – her favorability ratings are up compared to June – and rethinking Trump now that the choice is between the former president and Kamala Harris instead of Joe Biden.

What are the polls and focus groups telling us at this moment?

Donald Trump opened a consistent lead over Joe Biden after the debate and assassination attempt. Kamala Harris has snapped the horserace back to what it looked like in the spring: basically a tie. The August BSG poll shows Harris leading Trump 48% to 46%. Our March poll had Trump leading Biden by 1-point.

The horserace isn’t everything. Harris has changed the energy around the election for president. Her entry into the race is motivating people on the left and the right to vote. Seventy percent of Democrats say they are more motivated to vote now that Harris is in the race. And importantly for Democrats, her candidacy is motivating voters under age 30, Black voters, and Latino voters. Harris’ candidacy is also galvanizing Republicans, with 59% saying that are now more motivated to vote compared to when Biden was running.

Harris’ entry into the race has jumpstarted how Democrats are thinking about the election for president. In our March polling, 47% of Democrats said they were worried or fearful about the election for president, just 32% said they were excited or energized, and the remaining 21% were resigned, conflicted, or confused. The numbers flipped in our August poll with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. Now, 52% of Democrats say they are excited or energized about the election and only 36% are worried or fearful. Just 12% of Democrats say they are resigned, conflicted, or confused.

Republicans are a different story. Their feelings about the election are basically unchanged from March. In our August poll, 47% of Republicans say they are worried or fearful about the election for president, 36% are excited or energized, and 17% are resigned, conflicted, or confused.

Voters believe Kamala Harris being on the ballot will help other Democrats running for office. This is a big change from when Joe Biden was in the race. Currently, 40% of voters say that Harris will help other Democrats, compared to just 28% who say she will hurt them. By comparison, only 29% of voters in mid-June said Biden would help other Democrats and 38% said he would hurt them.

Voters are divided on whether Trump will help or hurt other Republicans, with 35% saying he will help and 35% saying he will hurt. This is a slight improvement from mid-June when 33% said he would help other Republicans and 37% said he would hurt them.

In the aggregate how does the public feel about the general direction of the country and the national mood? How has that changed (if at all) with Harris being the Democratic Party’s nominee?

Harris has reset the race for president, but the mood of the country has not changed. Voters still believe the country is off on the wrong track, that the economy is in bad shape, and that inflation is getting worse. What has changed is the choice voters have about the future.

On the one hand, Donald Trump has not changed his tone or message. His campaign continues to be about grievances and dividing people. Trump is offering voters a vision of the future based on his backward-looking, dystopian interpretation of America.

Democrats, however, are talking about the future differently with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. Instead of trying to convince people that the economy isn’t that bad, and that inflation is getting better (both are true statements that voters largely reject), Harris is exciting voters with talk about an inclusive future and expanding opportunity. She talks about "not going back" and she is a strong and constant advocate for abortion rights. Voters are still pessimistic about the economy and the direction of the country, but Harris is offering an optimistic vision of the future that is in stark contrast to what voters hear from Trump and the Republicans.

You just got back from doing public opinion and focus group work. What have you learned in terms of where the election is right now, on the ground, as they say?

Comparing our August and March polling, Harris is neutralizing important issues on which Trump enjoyed big advantages over Biden. Harris has drawn even with Trump on "getting prices and inflation under control", "growing the economy", and "getting the US out of foreign wars and conflicts." Trump had double-digit leads over Biden on these issues in March. Harris now trails the former president by just 2 points. Harris is also expanding Biden’s advantages on "dealing with climate change", "fixing our schools" and "standing up for working people."

This is not to say the race flipped. On "fixing health care" and "restoring civility and decency to politics," voters give Harris the same advantage Biden had over Trump. Importantly, Trump maintains leads over Harris on top-of-mind issues like "cracking down on illegal immigration at the border" and "enforcing law and order."

The Harris reset means that the race for president is competitive. At the Republican convention, it looked like Trump could coast to victory. Now, he’s going to have to work for it.

Vice President Kamala Harris literally and symbolically embodies a range of historic firsts in this country. How is that a factor in support for her? Opposition by the Republicans, “conservatives”, and Trump MAGA people and others against her?

Kamala Harris is an historic candidate on multiple fronts, but for many voters, this election is about who they are voting against, as much as who they are voting for.

Democrats are excited about Harris' firsts, but the firsts are less important as drivers of their vote. While 72% of Democrats are excited about Harris being a woman running for president, just 44% say that it is important to their vote. Similarly, 58% of Democrats are excited about Harris being Black and 52% are excited about her being South Asian, but only 39% say Harris being Black and South Asian is important to their vote.

Overwhelmingly, Independents and Republicans tell us that Harris being a woman and her identifying as Black and South Asian is neither exciting nor important to their vote. This doesn’t mean these factors won’t figure into their vote, but they are not what Independents and Republicans say matter. For Democrats, Trump’s actions and behavior are more important than Harris’ firsts. The fact that Trump appointees to the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade is important for 71% of Democrats. Likewise, Trump being a convicted felon is important for 72% of Democrats and his being held liable for sexual assault is important for 71% of Democrats.

What do we actually know about JD Vance and Tim Walz and how the public is responding to them?

Democrats and Republicans are happy with their nominees’ choices for VP — but independents view Tim Walz and JD Vance differently.

The base voters approve of the VP nominees: 77% of Republicans approve of JD Vance and 78% of Democrats approve of Tim Walz. Independents, however, disapprove of Trump choosing Vance by 40% to 32% approve. At the same time, they approve of Harris choosing Walz by 39% to 23% disapprove.

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Few voters cast ballots for president based on the VP, but it can matter on the margins. Walz is a net positive for Harris among independents, with 20% saying Walz being on the ticket makes them more likely to vote for Harris and 16% less likely. The Vance effect among independents is negative. Just 13% of independents say Vance makes them more likely to vote for Trump and 23% say he makes them less likely to vote for Trump. Two-thirds of independents say that Walz and Vance don’t really affect their vote either way.

Harris is leading at present. What are some pitfalls she must avoid? How can Donald Trump potentially turn around his extreme loss of momentum and support?

Harris’s greatest risk – as is the case for most campaigns – is unforced errors. So far, the Harris campaign has been organized, disciplined, and executing at a high level. This was in no way preordained. The Biden campaign morphed into the Harris campaign without drama or intrigue. There will be bumps, but so far, Harris has avoided missteps as she started to introduce herself to voters, chose her VP, and decided when and how to engage with Donald Trump.

Looking ahead, challenges for Harris include managing takeaways from the Democratic convention, as well as interactions with the press. Kamala Harris has been introducing herself to the country on a whirlwind tour of speeches in front of thousands of adoring supporters. She has to be ready for tough questions about issues and policy. She is going to be asked to defend past positions as well as explain what she wants to do as president.

To win, the Trump campaign needs to be disciplined, on message, and ready to pounce on Harris' mistakes. The Trump campaign appears to understand this reality, but its candidate has slipped back into loose cannon mode. Trump’s rambling speeches and interviews are not focusing on his strengths or Harris’ weaknesses.

Of course you are not psychic. But what are some things that you think we will see as having been important in hindsight, that are being overlooked in the moment, with the endless maw of the 24/7 news cycle and all of these surprises?

If Kamala Harris wins, history will look back on Joe Biden’s decision to step aside as a unique example of selfless leadership. Harris will win based on her own decisions, actions, and campaign, but Biden’s decision on July 21 to step aside will be credited for making her win possible. History will pay attention to Harris’s path to the nomination, the way she wins, and what her candidacy and success says about America.

I believe history will interpret a Trump victory as part of an ongoing and inevitable shift to the right. I don’t think historians will focus as much on how Trump won a second term. Instead, they will focus on what his victory means in the context of broader global rightwing populist movements.

Based on the data and your other insights, who would you rather be right now Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

I would rather be Kamala Harris right now. In addition to her strengths, the mere fact of her candidacy has thrown Trump off balance. Harris is gaining in the polls and Trump is not executing the case against her with any discipline. The fact that Trump continues to pine for Biden when addressing the MAGA faithful is a clear sign that he has not found his footing as it relates to Kamala Harris.