“The dynamics of the race have been totally upended": Poll shows Harris leading in key swing states

Vice President Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in five of seven battleground states, according a new poll conducted by Focaldata.

Harris leads by more than the margin of error in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, the poll found. The poll surveyed 651 voters between August 6-16 and was originally shared with Semafor.

Harris leads 48-47 in Pennsylvania and 47-46 in North Carolina, while Trump leads 46-45 in Arizona and 49-45 in Georgia. Inflation and immigration were the top two issues cited by battleground state-voters.

“The dynamics of the race have been totally upended,” James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata, told Semafor. At the same time, he said the race “looks like it has the potential to be extraordinarily close.”

Pennsylvania has emerged as a critical swing state, with both candidates campaigning heavily in the Keystone State this past weekend. Harris and Walz embarked on a bus tour of Pennsylvania before heading to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention.

Trump also campaigned in Pennsylvania on Saturday, where he drew criticism for personally attacking Harris rather than sticking to policy issues in his speech.

“Nobody seems to have locked up Pennsylvania, and if that’s the case come election day we will be heading into an election of great uncertainty,” Kanagasooriam told Semafor.

Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, but the state voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.

Battleground polls have widely shown Harris taking the lead or narrowing Trump's advantage in battleground states since Biden dropped out.

A New York Times/Sienna College poll showed that Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent across an average in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. In a previous poll conducted in May, Trump led Biden 50 to 41 percent across Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.