Mike Johnson faces GOP rebellion if he presses ahead with a spending bill backed by Democrats

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has a choice: risk a government shutdown on Oct. 1, just one month before the election, or defy the presidential nominee of his own party, compromise with Democrats and pass a spending package.

To date, Johnson has tried to pass legislation that would require only GOP votes, but that has failed to please anyone. He and his allies hoped that tacking on a provision to require proof of citizenship for voter registration would please his right flank, but it still wasn't enough to placate members frustrated over the bill's $1.6 trillion price tag and suspicious that the House speaker is disingenuously setting up a "fake" fight with Democrats. Moderate Republicans, meanwhile, are unhappy that the bill would punt a potential government shutdown to March and saddle a future President Donald Trump with a term-opening spending fight, while defense hawks are squawking over the extension of current military spending levels that, with inflation, would essentially amount to a budget cut.

According to Politico, it's clear from the volume of Republican opposition that the package has little prospect of passing the House. Johnson, bowing to reality, announced that the GOP leadership would delay a scheduled Wednesday vote on the bill until next week so the caucus can "build consensus" around it. Left unsaid was the high possibility that Johnson would be forced to cut a deal with Democrats to avoid a shutdown, a scenario that right-wing Republicans are fretting is the speaker's unwanted but unavoidable endgame. Democratic leaders have said that they will only support a "clean" spending bill that does not include voter ID provisions.

If the government shuts down, Republicans fear that it will confirm to voters that their party is not fit to govern. If Johnson passes spending legislation with Democratic support, however, he will enrage the same hard-line conservatives who already wrenched the gavel away from Kevin McCarthy, the last speaker who disappointed them. Johnson wriggled his way out of similar situations before with help from across the aisle, but trying again so close to the beginning of the next Congress carries additional risk for him. Johnson might have had a chance to make progress on spending this July, but the GOP leadership instead decided to go on summer recess early and punt the debate to the fall.

Moderate Republicans are urging Johnson to accept the inevitable and cut out the voter ID legislation sooner rather than later.

“Playing fast and loose with government on the eve of a national election is not going to be good for our nominee for president,” Rep. Tom Cole, R-Ok., told Politico. “It’s not going to be good for our prospects for keeping the government and functioning while we carry out the most important elections in national history."

Other members are accusing Johnson of failing to properly vet his funding plan and listen to feedback from his caucus. And the criticism is coming in all directions, including from Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. Two sources close to both Rogers and Johnson told Politico that the speaker did not discuss defense spending provisions with Rogers before announcing the plan.

During a closed-door meeting on Tuesday morning, Johnson attempted to rally his members to support the measure.

“I believe we can fund the government responsibly, and I believe that we can do right by the American people and ensure the security of our elections,” Johnson told reporters afterward, describing the attached provision as “a fight worth having.” Despite the GOP routinely warning that American elections are being hijacked by waves of undocumented immigrants, there is scant evidence that noncitizens even try to get past existing government safeguards. Democrats say that the real problem is Republicans fanning xenophobia against immigrants and attempting to suppress the voting rights of poor and minority citizens who are unable to obtain physical government identification.

Although many Republican lawmakers left the Tuesday meeting unmoved, the House voted later that day to at least debate on the legislation. Minutes later, Trump weighed in with his customary bombast, pressing Republicans to "close it down" if Democrats would not vote for the voter ID measure.

"If Republicans in the House, and Senate, don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security, THEY SHOULD, IN NO WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM, GO FORWARD WITH A CONTINUING RESOLUTION ON THE BUDGET,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

Both Johnson's allies and his chief antagonists have been reaching out to the former president with their own pleas to lend some of his political capital. One person familiar with Johnson's efforts told Politico that the speaker is seeking to persuade Trump that his potential second term would start on a much better footing if the current spending fight were resolved before January, even if Republicans might miss a chance to dictate terms should they regain full control of Washington. Hard-right Republicans, meanwhile, are not-so-privately invoking Trump to pressure Johnson.

"I don’t speak for President Trump … but I think the speaker needs to be honest with President Trump about what he will and won’t do on Sept. 30,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who tried to oust Johnson in May, told reporters. “That’s crucial, and I don’t think that’s been the case.”

Adding to the possibility that Johnson will have to end up working with Democrats: Even if a GOP-only bill passes the House, it faces certain death in the Democratic-controlled Senate. With less than two months to go before Election Day, another embarrassing and pointless defeat is the last thing Republicans want and need. The problem for Johnson is that some members of his caucus still seem to think that total victory is possible.