Battleground state? California could be key to control of U.S. House

California is one of just two states in the U.S. with enough swing districts to determine control of the House of Representatives. That fact has filled the Golden State with must-win races and launched some interesting strategies from Democrats and Republicans alike.

California Republicans are attempting to distance themselves from the national party in a bid to maintain gains they made in the lower chamber in 2022. Democrats, on the other hand, see the presidential election environment as the perfect opportunity to flip seats currently held by the GOP.

Republicans currently have the hot hand. In 2022, the party won all five races in the state's most competitive districts. While Republicans are still well in the minority among California's representatives, the pickups were just enough to deliver their party a narrow majority in the House. These five seats are now top targets for Democrats looking to flip the House in 2024.

California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks told Salon that the party has “ramped up” on-the-ground efforts in their effort to retake the House and feels that they enjoy an advantage in enthusiasm this year when compared to 2022.

“Presidential elections are different than gubernatorial elections,” Hicks said. “Certainly with Vice President Kamala Harris and Tim Walz on the ticket we have an energy tailwind in a way that we did not in 2022.”

Hicks added that he believes turnout in 2022 was depressed after the 2021 gubernatorial recall election. He thinks 2024 will shake out differently with increased turning, noting that having a “daughter of California” at the top of the ticket has been a boon to enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

At the same time, the California Democratic Party has more House races on its plate than any other state party. Of the state’s 52 House seats, ten are considered competitive by the Cook Political Report, and five of those are rated as true “toss-ups.” All of the coin-flip districts are currently held by Republicans.

“These seats have been battleground seats for several cycles going back to 2018,” Hicks said. “These are always going to be tight races with significant resources being spent from around the country. What we are focusing on is that we close out the last five yards to a touchdown.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has set up six district-level headquarters in the state, hired around 30 staffers to help with fundraising and campaign organization and invested $55 million in ads for House races in the state so far this cycle.

DCCC spokesperson Dan Gottlieb told Salon that the campaigns have the “resources, the tangible momentum, and the army of volunteers they need to reach voters wherever they are, and we’re excited to support their efforts to win these races in the home stretch.”

At the same time, Republicans have announced significant investments in California. Earlier this year, the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund invested $30 million into ad buys in the state. In addition to holding onto their five toss-up seats, the National Republican Congressional Committee is attempting to pick up three seats that lean Democratic: the 9th, 47th and 49th. A recent poll from SurveyUSA and KGTV found that the Democrats lead in the 49th by 12 points.

Those three districts are far from the only California seats in play, however. Recent district-level polling from California State University Long Beach, University of Southern California and Cal Poly Pomona suggests that Democrats currently lead in the close 13th, 22nd, 27th and 45th districts, while Republicans lead in the 47th District. The 41st District is currently neck-and-neck between Democrats and Republicans. All of the poll’s results were within the margin of error.

While the state’s battleground districts are often discussed together, they are geographically diverse. The 13th and 22nd are mostly rural districts in the state’s Central Valley. The 27th, 41st, 45th and 47th are in the Los Angeles metro area.

USC political scientist Christian Grose, who helped conduct the recent check on the district races, said that a similar story is playing out across these races. Republicans are performing well with white voters and Democrats are performing well with minority voters.

In Grose’s analysis, these races will come down to two factors: turnout and potential Republican gains among minority voters. Grose said that he would rather be in the Democrat Party's position in most of these districts. He noted, however, that many of the Republicans running in California have gone out of their way to localize the election and present themselves as more moderate than the national party.

“They have made real attempts to reach out to voters in ways that would present themselves as problem solvers,” Grose said.

Rep. David Valadao, who represents the 22nd District, is the last Republican in Congress who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump. Rep. Michelle Steel, who represents the 45th District, has taken many conservative positions in Congress but advertises herself as a champion of victims of sexual abuse.

California State University political scientist Matt Lesenyie agreed with Grose's take. He told Salon that Republicans were trying to detach their fortunes from Trump, albeit with some growing pains.

“I look at these races as emblematic of how Republicans will run in the future,” Lesenyie said. “If they succeed they’ll be more of a template that will be replicated.”

In one notable example of the state party's split from national Republican politics, there was an effort by moderates within the state party to strip opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion from their platform. While it ultimately failed, it is indicative of the fact that Republicans understand they need to change to remain competitive in the state. The California Republican Party did not respond to a request for comment.

At the same time, both pollsters agreed that voter enthusiasm appears to be on the Democrats' side this year. This factor alone might be enough to push most of the Democratic candidates over the edge.

“In a lot of these districts occasional Democratic voters did not show up in 2022 and it looks like they’re going to show up in 2024,” Grose said. “That means that Republicans are in the hot seat in most of these districts.”