The age factor election: "A vote for Trump could easily be a vote for a President Vance"

With less than a month to go until Election Day, the American people and the world will soon find out if the epic that is the Age of Trump is about to be over or if they will be forced to suffer through a sequel featuring the various characters and spin-offs that the MAGAverse 2.0 may spawn. In these final weeks, the story that is the Age of Trump most closely resembles some type of crime novel, one in which the crimes are announced and planned in public and then committed in plain sight.

Donald Trump is amplifying the Big Lie 2.0 as he primes his MAGA followers to preemptively reject the results of the 2024 election and to engage in acts of civil unrest and violence. Trump and the MAGAfied Republican Party are also attempting to recruit tens of thousands of “poll watchers” to stop virtually non-existent “voter fraud”, i.e. to intimidate Black and brown voters. On the state and local level, through legal, extra-legal, and illegal means Trump’s agents and other MAGA supporters are also attempting to infiltrate, manipulate or through acts of outright fraud to steal the 2024 election on his behalf. As Reuters recently highlighted, this danger is especially acute in the key battleground states. Georgia is one such battleground state where a small group of local Trump election deniers are in key positions to overturn the results of the 2024 presidential election. And as they did in 2020, Trump’s agents and allies are already preparing to flood the courts with specious lawsuits to stop Kamala Harris from assuming office if she wins the 2024 election.

America’s democracy crisis is global. Donald Trump’s campaign is being supported by hostile foreign actors such as Russia who are engaging in a sophisticated propaganda disinformation psyops campaign online, via social media and across the wider right-wing media space with the goal of weakening America’s democracy at home and the country’s influence and power abroad. One of Trump’s main propaganda points is that America is imperiled by an “enemy within.” This appears to be an act of projection. Bob Woodward reports in his new book that Trump appears to be beholden to Vladimir Putin – and has acted in service to that loyalty in ways that have imperiled the collective safety and well-being of the American people.

The choice between Kamala Harris, a responsible leader and defender of American democracy, and Donald Trump, a demonstrated enemy of democracy and the nation’s interests, who has promised to be a dictator on “day one” of his “presidency,” should not be easier or clearer. Nonetheless, public opinion polls continue to show that the 2024 election is one of the closest in modern American history. A new poll by the New York Times and Siena shows that an increasing number of Americans view the vice president as representing a force for positive change (Harris leads Trump by 2 points on this question). These findings complement other polls that show Harris with momentum and leading Trump in the national vote (again by relatively small percentages that tend to be within the margin of error). While approximately half the voters want the book and story that is the Age of Trump to be over and done with there are likely just as many who want many more stories and more time with their favorite character, Donald Trump.

In an attempt to make better sense of this unprecedented and truly historic election, where we are as a nation, and what may happen next, I recently spoke to a range of experts.

Norm Ornstein is emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and co-author of the bestselling book "One Nation After Trump: A Guide for the Perplexed, the Disillusioned, the Desperate, and the Not-Yet Deported."

I am nervous. No matter how many disgraceful things Trump does and says, his support is stable. His floor is probably 45% and the ceiling is maybe 47%. That could well be enough to win the requisite electoral votes. Combine that with the voter suppression, voter intimidation and chicanery by his MAGA allies in key states and it makes me nervous. I believe Harris is ahead and should win. But….

I am encouraged by the Harris campaign, which moved into professional high gear without a hitch when Biden withdrew, and she, and [running mate Tim] Walz, have run a strong campaign. Trump has clearly deteriorated and, as the Times pointed out, turned not just more incoherent but much darker. By all rights, his authoritarian, mean, lying and threatening rhetoric should have disqualified him from any office or position of trust. That it has not is truly troubling.

In these remaining weeks, I am worrying about more October surprises, including more hurricanes and the possible widening of war in the Middle East. And maybe even Supreme Court rulings. I fear Trump will grow more desperate, knowing if he loses, jail could be in the offing. Who knows what Trump is capable of doing?

If Kamala Harris wins, the key question is what happens with the House and Senate — especially the Senate. If it goes to the Republicans, we will have a rough couple of years, with executive and judicial confirmations facing rocky roads — and a radical right Supreme Court that will do its best to cripple executive action, its immunity decision notwithstanding. If, somehow, Democrats win the trifecta, the critical question will be whether there are 50 votes in the Senate to change the rules to allow some key policies — reinstating Roe, passing democracy reforms, sensible gun reforms — to pass ultimately with simple majority votes.

If Trump wins, expect his pledges to invoke the Insurrection Act, provoke political violence, focus on retribution, pardon the January 6 criminals, blow up our alliances and form a new one with dictators. Expect an administration run by thugs like Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Ric Grenell and Roger Stone.

Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University, is the author, most recently, of “Birchers: How the John Birch Society Radicalized the American Right.”

Why has the presidential campaign remained a razor-thin contest since Vice President Kamala Harris became the de facto Democratic Party’s nominee? First, some voters seem to be willing to overlook Trump’s manifest unfitness for office. Much of the public believes that Trump has no morals, revels in the dehumanization of minority groups and tramples on the rule of law — but many voters also have concluded that he, more than Harris, is able to promote people’s economic security, which is one reason why he has remained so competitive.

Second, this tight campaign — Kamala Harris should be winning by a landslide given Trump’s status as a felon and an insurrectionist — reflects the metastasizing belief that the United States is broken, a system beset by unfixable ailments. Rather than an economy producing opportunity for all, and a politics organized to address the public’s most urgent problems and concerns, many Americans have become jaundiced and cynical. Interviews with swing voters conducted by major news outlets reveal their disquiet: their belief that whoever prevails this November will not improve their lives and that Washington, D.C. is corrupt and inept. Neither Trump nor Harris, these undecided voters seem to be saying, will help them afford college, childcare, home ownership and health care. The public’s dyspepsia helps explain Trump’s political viability; his brand promises to destroy a rigged system and Americans’ rage and cynicism act as fuel to his campaign.

This year’s election is fraught. It puts the United States at an inflection point echoing some of the most destabilizing developments of the 21st century — nine-eleven, the Great Recession, Trump’s 2016 victory, the pandemic, January 6. Not since the late 1960s and early 1970s has the country experienced such a spate of political violence. If Trump were to lose, it’s virtually impossible to envision him accepting the election results; he is likely to accuse his enemies of stealing the election and urge his most passionate followers to take to the streets.

If Trump prevails in November, however, the nation would likely be plunged into a different kind of chaos. A Trump victory would sow a crisis of democratic legitimacy and the nation would probably enter a period of prolonged instability. Trump seems poised to move with speed to advance his autocratic, isolationist, nativist, anti-rule-of-law agenda. As president, he would escape accountability for his alleged and proven criminal conduct. A Trump presidency would strain the nation’s judiciary, election system, Department of Justice and international alliances. Put differently, the nonstop traumatic impact of the Trump years is unlikely to end on Election Day and the next few months pose the latest in a string of stresses on the nation’s democratic resiliency.

Hal Brown is a clinical social worker and was one of the first members of the Duty to Warn group. He has extensive expertise in working with multiple personality disorder (now called dissociative identity disorder).

As Election Day approaches, I am experiencing mixed emotions. I am feeling run-of-the-mill trepidation to off-the-charts trepidation. I am not debilitated because my partner and close friends are here to support each other and because I write a political blog.

I always anticipated that the election was going to be down to the wire, but nobody could have guessed that Trump would have had two people attempt to assassinate him. These events played right into his narrative as being some kind of Heaven-sent heroic savior.

As a retired psychotherapist who is always balancing looking inward and looking outward, I weigh worst-case scenarios. I do with myself what I would have done with my clients who would be living in terror over the prospect of a Trump win. In my inner life I know I will hold my friends close and my loved ones closer. In my outer life, I will make a plan for myself to join the resistance against a Trump regime in whichever ways I feel I can be the most effective.

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As the election approaches, I think we will see, excuse the cliche, more of Trump being Trump. I also think we will see an increase in his cognitive decline, which I hope against hope is covered in the mainstream media. The public must be reminded that while the vice president is the only member of the Executive Branch who can’t be fired, the president can essentially be fired by the vice president should he become significantly impaired. This is accomplished through the 25th Amendment. People must realize that a vote for Trump could easily be a vote for a President Vance.

If Harris wins life will go on for me. I will breathe a sigh of relief once she is sworn in. I will probably be hard-pressed to find subjects to write my blog about. I can’t say much more than if Trump wins my life will go on even as he bends the country towards a nationalistic brutal authoritarianism. I know that because of my living circumstances here in liberal Oregon, my life won’t change that much. I will, however, see draconian changes in other parts of the country. How quickly and how harshly these will be implemented can’t be predicted. Neither can the blowback coming from Democracy loving protesters. Like others, I think violence is a very real possibility.

I want to share some advice, and hopefully some wisdom, from my 40 years as a psychotherapist and from the insights I gained from both my own clients and from my own therapists. In addition to what I said above, I would remind everyone who feels overwhelmed that no matter how horrific things get you are not alone in the resistance. The most insidious feeling during times of stress is loneliness. If you feel this and want to hide your head under a blanket force yourself to rally whatever strength you can muster and reach out to like-minded people.

David Pepper is a lawyer, writer, political activist and former elected official. His new book is "Saving Democracy: A User's Manual for Every American."

I am feeling disturbed. The scale of disinformation dominating the country is foreboding about the politics of the future. And the normalization of far-right extremism (in the form of JD Vance) is very dangerous. In the end, while Trump is the central focus of this election, the broader extremism of the anti-democracy right is on the ballot on many levels — along with truly dark tactics on how they advance that agenda. The bottom line: even if Trump loses, this election makes clear the long-term challenges we face go far beyond this particular cycle.

In the weeks until Election Day, I expect more October surprises. More lies. Attempts at suppression. Outside interference. Election denialism. We are seeing the extent people are willing to go to secure power.

If Donald Trump wins, every promise he and JD Vance have made — and everything written in Project 2025 — become fair game for them to fulfill beginning next year. From privatizing weather forecasts to attacks on public education, unions and workers, to bans on abortion and IVF, everyday Americans will quickly see how long-sought right-wing priorities will quickly upend their own lives, their communities and the nation as a whole.