Warriors claim change is coming, but the future might look similar

The Warriors are going to look different next year. That much, we have been assured. At least, that's what they keep telling us, while also telling us how much they want to retain the core.

"This offseason is going to be different," Steve Kerr told Willard and Dibs. He did not know what that would look like, just that things would change.

Mike Dunleavy Jr's press conference was blunt about the realities the Warriors are facing in a Western Conference that will only get tougher.

"I think we've still got really good players. For me, we're closer to the top than we are the bottom even though we finished 10th in the standings," Dunleavy Jr. said. "But that could change, next year will be tough. The teams that didn't make the playoffs this year, looking at the outside in, with Houston, Memphis, San Antonio, I don't see a way for those teams to get worse. They're only gonna get better. So this is a tough conference and this is why we've got to improve. We've got to get a lot better."

Great. Change. Blow it all up. Start fresh. Clean slate. Let it rip. Only, the fact that the Warriors did not make the playoffs means that they are unlikely to actually do that.

The Warriors are, well, let's not accuse them of lying. But they are pushing forth this idea that they will continue to spend well, while also seeking to cut major costs. This is an oxymoron in some ways, and reality in others. There are levels to spending, especially with the new collective bargaining agreement punishing the highest spenders.

It's not just the money, either. The NBA has put brutal restrictions on mid-level exceptions and other benefits for taxpaying teams which kick in this offseason, and the Warriors need to reset their framework to avoid the punitive measures.

It all points towards a potential reality that they are going to cling to the dying embers of the dynasty and perhaps hope for a playoff series at home next season.

See: the fact that they have explicitly stated that the first priority is cutting the payroll.

Joe Lacob told Tim Kawakami bluntly that the plan is to get under the luxury tax. He has clearly been as blunt with Kerr and Dunleavy Jr., who repeated that sentiment, in slightly less direct ways.

"I think if you've got a team that you feel can contend for a championship, you do what it takes financially," Dunleavy Jr. said Thursday. "You know how Joe is with his willingness to spend and compete, that I don't think there will be any restrictions, but we'll also be prudent. To put a team out there that can't make the playoffs - like, we spent $400 million this year - I wouldn't recommend that."

Kerr preempted that statement Wednesday with his own.

"Personally I don't think it makes sense to have a massive payroll right now with our team," Kerr said. "It just doesn't."

But here's the thing: unless the Warriors are willing to make a major, ballsy move, say, trading Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga for an upgrade like the, very-good-at-basketball-and-basketball-specifically, Miles Bridges, in a sign-and-trade, this thing is going to look incredibly similar next year.

(Regarding Bridges: He had three criminal counts of domestic abuse dropped in February , but he is serving three years of probation after a no contest plea, following June 2022 domestic violence case with the mother of his two children. She has a 10-year protection order from Bridges.)

Maybe, perhaps, a less morally ambiguous deal. What about Caris LeVert and Georges Niang for Wiggins and Kuminga with some second-round or 2027 first-round draft sweeteners? Anyone? No one. Okay.

Sorry to drag us all down some very dark, hypothetical paths together, but this is the predicament the Warriors are in. Lacob might calculate that getting rid of Paul and finding some cheap help on the fringes will allow the Warriors to remain interesting.

Without a $200-plus million tax burden, the Warriors would be in for a very profitable season, and a theoretically intriguing one if they are healthy from start to finish. Remember, they won 46 games. That usually gets you into the playoffs. Counterpoint: time rolls on, ruthlessly.

Let's do the math here on why the Warriors, barring a major trade, will look quite similar.

They spent, as Kerr and Dunleavy Jr. both said, more than $400 million on a roster that did not make the playoffs. Even if they cut major costs, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green will cost nearly $80 million combined next season. The tax threshold is projected around $171 million, and the salary cap at $141 million.

That gives you about $91.5 million under the tax, and $61.3 million under the cap to fill out, let's say, 12 more roster spots. Gary Payton II has a $9 million player option that he wants to parlay into an extension (maybe a 5.5+6 deal?). For now, that's about $89 million for three players.

Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody are both extension eligible, which should be intriguing, especially with a report from Logan Murdock that Kuminga could command up to $30 million per year. But for next season, they, along with Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, count for a combined, nearly $19 million. So you've got seven players for $108 million. Seven more to go, and $63 million left under the tax, and $33 million under the cap.

We have not mentioned Andrew Wiggins or Chris Paul. Paul, to be clear, is gone. His $30 million salary has no guarantees.

Wiggins, meanwhile, will cost $26.27 million unless the Warriors can trade him. They may believe, understandably, that they cannot find an upgrade, or shed enough salary, while maintaining a similar level of performance, and without attaching too many assets, to warrant moving on from Wiggins.

With Wiggins, the Warriors number goes down to $37.2 million below the tax threshold, and $6.87 below the salary cap.

Kevon Looney is an interesting case. He could be gone, potentially, depending on his price. He's got an $8 million cap figure with $3 million guaranteed. Do the Warriors work something out with both him and Payton II do decrease their deals this season and extend them for one more?

If they cut Looney, the Warriors would have about $34 million with six spots open. If they kept him at the same price, it would be $29 million left with five spots open. Let's say they come to a 5.5+6 extension for Payton, and a 5+5.4 extension for Looney, with the second year non-guaranteed for Looney, and half guaranteed for Payton II.

That's five spots open with about $36 million left under the tax and $5.5 million under the cap. Add in Gui Santos' $1.89 million and that's four spots with roughly $34 million left under the tax, and $3.6 million below the salary cap. Santos' deal is not guaranteed, but even if he's cut, there will be someone in there at a similar price.

In short, if the Warriors let Paul go, and decrease Looney and Payton II's numbers by about $3 million each, they are left with about $137.4 million committed next season, with 10 roster spots filled. They have a theoretical $3.6 million to spend on free agents before hitting the cap, if they were to renounce all their holds, and up to $12.86 million in a standard mid-level exception. That cap space doesn't really exist given their cap holds.

The Warriors' only draft pick, as it stands, is the Bucks' at No. 52. They can use the brand-new second-round pick exception, meaning the roughly $1-1.5 million they'll pay a second-round rookie will not count on the cap for next year. That's three spots left.

You need a shooting guard, a backup point guard unless Podziemski will take on that role, and athletes, preferably who can shoot. Good luck.

So... if Klay Thompson costs, say $25 million, do you do it?

That would leave you with around $8.9 million of a potential $12.8 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. You want to budget at least $1 million for additions throughout the season (Lester Quinones cost about $550k) to make sure you don't hit that tax threshold.

Let's say the Warriors re-sign Thompson for $25 million a year. He, and the 52nd overall pick leave them with 12 players. You an add one player for the veteran minimum of about $2 million, and around $5 million for the mid-level exception. Oh god, is that Damion Lee's music?

That gives the team about $2 million in breathing room below the tax threshold, with one open roster spot.

Because of the realities of their cap commitments, the Warriors can't afford to go after someone like a Malik Monk at a cheaper price than Klay Thompson, even if that's what they wanted to do. Thompson is the best option they have for his position, and yet, he could completely screw up their ability to fill out the roster if he demands $30 million instead of $25 million. And he might. That's his prerogative.

If Thompson leaves, the Warriors can work with their little bit of cap space, which they can get up to $5.6 million by cutting Looney, and even more if they can find a way to shed some of Wiggins' salary. They'd have a full $12.8 million mid-level exception to use. But is that route more advantageous than just retaining Thompson? I don't think the Warriors will feel that way. But it's up to him.