Brandon Aiyuk's prospective extension will likely be a steal for the 49ers

With veterans set to report to training camp a week from Tuesday, the San Francisco 49ers are seemingly no closer to an agreement with Brandon Aiyuk on a long-term contract extension.

San Francisco has a strong track record of getting its players signed to contract extensions around training camp but, should the 49ers fail to do so this year, it would mark a second successive year in which they have missed that deadline.

The 49ers did not sign Nick Bosa to a deal that, at the time, made him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, until a few days before the season.

That contract, a five-year, $170 million deal with $122.5 million in guarantees with $88 million guaranteed at signing, was a complete financial win for the 49ers' star pass rusher. The longer the Aiyuk negotiation goes on, the larger the potential for the All-Pro wide receiver to come out as the perceived 'winner' will grow.

Yet the reality is the 49ers are in a situation where, from a financial sense, they can't really lose.

San Francisco is reported to have offered Aiyuk a deal in the region of $26 million a year. He is said to want to beat Amon-Ra St. Brown's four-year, $120 million extension with the Detroit Lions, reported to be worth $28 million annually over the first three years.

Even if the 49ers acquiesce to Aiyuk's demands and have to pay him somewhere around the $30 million a year, the trajectory of his career suggests that will soon look like a steal.

Aiyuk is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, with the 1,342 he racked up last year making him only the fourth 49ers pass-catcher to record 1,300 yards in a single campaign since 2000.

Yet the raw numbers undersell Aiyuk's prowess as a route-runner, which was illustrated by Reception Perception's recently released profile on his 2023 season.

The data revealed Aiyuk had a 78.7 percent success rate versus man coverage, putting him in the 96th percentile. He was in the 97th percentile against press with an 83.6 percent success rate. On top of that, he had an 85.4 percent success against zone coverage, earning him a spot in the 91st percentile.

In short, Aiyuk is an elite route-runner who consistently beats all types of coverage to frequently produce explosive plays. The latter point is evidenced by his 28 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, second in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill, and his lead in Expected Points Added per target (0.63) and positive play rate (69.2%) among pass-catchers with at least 50 targets, per Sports Info Solutions.

Aiyuk hasn't delivered elite production consistently enough across his four-year career to this point to be paid at close to the same level as Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings, who broke Bosa's non-quarterback record when he signed a four-year, $140 million extension worth $35 million annually.

But at just 26 years old, Aiyuk is an ascending talent set to enter his prime years. He is only going to get better. Barring an injury or an unexpected drop-off, Aiyuk is on a path where he would be worthy of the Jefferson contract.

And with the salary cap likely to increase and the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, George Pickens and DK Metcalf entering the fray for contract extensions next offseason, a deal around the $30 million mark for Aiyuk should look very cheap very quickly as the market moves.

History suggests the 49ers will come to terms on a deal with Aiyuk around the training camp reporting date on July 23. Regardless of when a resolution actually happens, the likelihood is the result will be a deal that will become a bargain for San Francisco.

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