Data:
U.S. Census Bureau via
housingdata.app ; Chart: Axios Visuals
The San Francisco metro area is on track to permit fewer new housing units this year compared to 2023, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Why it matters: That's a problem for people facing steep housing prices , with fewer permits resulting in a smaller inventory .
Zoom in: The San Francisco metro area, which includes the city, Oakland and Fremont, is projected to permit over 4,600 this year compared to almost 7,500 in 2023.
- That means a projected 10.1 new units permitted per 10,000 residents, down from 16.4 in 2023 — a 38% decrease in total new units permitted per capita.
What to watch: San Francisco might see a reversal in the next year after triggering a new state law that will expedite the permitting approval process for developments that meet certain criteria under the city's planning department.
- These projects will no longer need to undergo discretionary hearings, review through the California Environmental Quality Act or Neighborhood Notification.
- San Francisco is the first city to trigger the law, which mandates an expedited process if the California Department of Housing and Community Development determines that a city is falling short of its state-mandated goals for new housing.
The big picture: Higher interest rates for loans are slowing new home and apartment construction , according to the National Association of Home Builders.
- Labor and lot shortages are also weighing on builders, per the group's latest survey . Experts estimate America is short over 3 million units of housing, either to rent or to buy.
Yes, but: Homebuilding has proved resilient, partly because there's low inventory of existing houses for sale.
- 1.3 million units nationwide were permitted in 2023 — most of which (60%) were single-family homes, the data shows.
Zoom out: Some areas, particularly fast-growing U.S. metros in the South , are seeing more homebuilding than others.
- Cape Coral, North Port and Lakeland, all in Florida, are projected to lead large metros this year in total new units permitted per capita.
Between the lines: A cascade of new apartments , financed when interest rates were lower, helped recently to slow rent growth across the nation.
- With the peak of the construction wave behind us, per an analysis from real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield, landlords could raise rents .
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