US job growth not nearly as high as originally estimated, new data reveals

Job growth in the U.S. was slower than initially thought for much of 2023 and the start of 2024, according to revised data released by the Department of Labor on Wednesday.

Revised data shows that the U.S. economy added 819,000 fewer jobs than estimated in the 12-month period ending in March, based on counts derived from state unemployment insurance tax records.

The 819,000 figure represents 0.5% of the entire workforce. Generally, past estimates have been within 0.1% of the entire workforce.

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Between March 2023 and March 2024, it was believed that the U.S. added an average of about 242,000 jobs a month. The revised numbers now suggest the U.S. added a mere 173,000 per month during the time frame.

While the Biden administration has frequently touted that the U.S. has had a stronger-than-normal economy, the revised figures indicate job growth has been much closer to historical norms. From July 2014 through July 2014, the U.S. averaged about 164,000 new jobs per month.

The Federal Reserve has also cited strong numbers as justification to maintain the highest federal interest rates the U.S. has had in 23 years. The Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates in hopes of reducing the annual inflation rate closer to 2%. As of July, the consumer price index rose 2.9% for the 12-month period. Last month marked the first time in nearly three years that consumer inflation dipped below 3% after topping 9% in 2022.

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Over the last decade, inflation generally has gone up 3.2% per year.

The next potential change to the federal interest rate would come on Sept. 18.