Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Seattle Mariners (56-52) and Boston Red Sox (56-49) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-2

Seattle headed to Boston after sweeping the White Sox on the South Side of Chicago, but fell 14-7 Monday night. The Red Sox got to RHP Logan Gilbert early, roughing him up for 7 ER over 2 2/3 IP. They did get homers from new addition LF Randy Arozarena and C Cal Raleigh, though. Seattle fell to 29-25 on the road this season and 46-62 against the spread (ATS).

The Red Sox had 16 hits Monday. LF Masataka Yoshida led the way offensively for Boston, going 3-for-5 with a home run, a double, 2 runs scored and 4 RBIs. The Red Sox also got home runs from 1B Dominic Smith and 3B Romy Gonzalez. RHP Nick Pivetta struck out 10 to earn his 5th win of the season as Boston improved to 26-27 at Fenway Park and 48-57 ATS.

Mariners at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. LHP James Paxton

Castillo (8-10, 3.38 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 130 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-1 home loss against Los Angeles Angels Wednesday
• 2024 road splits: 3-6, 4.11 ERA (57 IP, 26 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 10 starts
• Career vs. Red Sox: 1-2, 5.06 ERA (16 IP, 9 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 3 starts

Paxton (8-2, 4.43 ERA) makes his 19th start and 1st as a member of the Red Sox this season. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 89 1/3 IP with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Was traded from L.A. to Boston Friday
• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 9-6 home victory over Red Sox July 21
• 2024 home splits (at Dodger Stadium): 4-0, 3.03 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 7 starts
• Only career start vs. Mariners: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 4 K in 7-3 road victory Aug. 28, 2019, with New York Yankees

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Mariners at Red Sox odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Twins -1.5 (+128) | Mets -1.5 (-154)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Mariners 2

BET RED SOX (+102).

I’ve got Boston winning Tuesday with Paxton on the mound for the 1st time since the trade. This will not be an easy win against Castillo, but he has struggled on the road. He is 1-4 in his last 5 starts away from Seattle. The whole Mariners staff does not like pitching away from the Pacific Northwest with a 4.07 ERA.

I like the Red Sox to get to Castillo, as they hit .261 against right-handers, while the Mariners struggle against lefties with a .215 team average.

PASS.

I’m going to keep my bet to the moneyline.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-112).

The Under has hit in 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings, 3 of Castillo’s last 4 starts, and 2 of Paxton’s last 3 outings.

Castillo has allowed 4 total ER in his last 4 starts (25 2/3 IP). This may be Paxton’s 1st start at Fenway since the trade, but he was 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA this year in front of the Dodgers’ home crowd.

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