Week 8 Predictions: Battle of unbeatens headlines rivalry week

By ANDREW SIMONSON | Sports Editor

Just four weeks remain in the Alabama high school football season, but before we get to the playoffs, we’ve got some bad blood to sort out.

Four of our biggest matchups this week are longtime rivalry battles, including the return of Briarwood’s series with John Carroll, Shelby County and Montevallo now meeting in region play and the latest chapter in one of the state’s best rivalries: Helena and Pelham.

As for that fourth rivalry? It’s one of the most anticipated games of the season between 6-0 Spain Park and 6-0 Chelsea in a potential championship game for Class 6A, Region 3. It’s a no-brainer choice for our Game of the Week.

However, no matter which of our 11 county games you choose to watch this week, you should be in for a treat as every team buckles in for the final weeks of region play, setting up a closing stretch where just about anything can happen.

Hopefully this week’s predictions can give you a good preview as for what to expect, especially since last week, I picked every game right except for Vincent’s loss to Tuscaloosa Academy. That one’s not entirely my fault as the Jackets players helped sway me into picking them.

While I won’t be so easily influenced this week, the unpredictable nature of rivalry week may prove to be my downfall this week, so let’s see how I fare.

Last Week’s Record: 10-1

Overall: 45-14

Teams on Bye: None

Spain Park (6-0) vs. Chelsea (6-0) (Thursday, Game of the Week)

Raise your hand if before the season you had the Hornets and Jags both at 6-0 for this game. Me neither, but I’m more than happy to be wrong. Both teams have outperformed their own high expectations to this point, and as a result, we have one of the most highly-anticipated games of the season. The similarities don’t just stop at their record as both teams are very similar statistically. Chelsea is scoring 35.8 points per game, but Spain Park has the slight edge at 37.2 points per game. The Jags defense is allowing 19.3 points per game, but the Hornets have the advantage on that side of the ball with 16 points allowed per game. I believe both of these defenses will be crucial here with each team’s offense operating at a high level. For Spain Park, it’s all about getting past the offensive line and bringing down Chase Stracener, something that’s been easier said than done all year. Chelsea’s goal will be to use its secondary to limit Brock Bradley’s impact, particularly when connecting with one of the state’s top receivers in Corey Barber. While the Hornets are becoming a more balanced offensive team by the week, the Jags have been more consistent with their success both in the air and on the ground, which leads me to believe they’ll find more ways to make plays. Spain Park 28, Chelsea 21.

Helena (3-3) vs. Pelham (1-5)

It’s one of the biggest rivalries in the entire state, but both teams are going in the opposite direction this season. Helena is clicking on all cylinders after capitalizing off opportunities to demolish Benjamin Russell, while Pelham is reeling from a lopsided loss to one of the best teams in Class 6A in Spain Park. With just two region games left, it’s now or never for the Panthers if they want to make the playoffs. They’ll need to play with that urgency to secure a win on the field for the first time since 2018. While Pelham has shown that it can compete with high-powered offenses like Chelsea and Calera, the team will likely need to step up to another level and consistently get points. That’s easier said than done in a hostile road environment, especially against a hot team like the Huskies. Stranger things have happened in rivalries like this, but Helena seems to have its balance on offense figured out and trending in the right direction, and that makes me believe this will be another big night on that side of the ball. Helena 35, Pelham 17.

Shelby County (5-2) vs. Montevallo (1-5)

The records and each team’s form coming into this one point towards it being a blowout, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned from attending each of their last four meetings, it’s that Shelby County vs. Montevallo always delivers. Dating back to the resumption of their annual series in 2018, each game outside of Joseph Anderson running wild in 2021 has been decided by two scores or less. With that said though, it’s harder to picture this one being as close as those games. Both teams do enter with solid defenses, but while the Wildcats are generally consistent on that side of the ball, the Bulldogs have let close games get away from them, particularly in their last two losses to John Carroll and Selma. That doesn’t bode well if Shelby County opts to consistently run the ball as it has for much of the season. The Wildcats were shut down on the ground last week against Demopolis, and they’ll be motivated to use this rivalry game as a bounce-back night for Anthony Palmieri and the rushing attack. If Shelby County gets the chance to not only make big plays on the ground but continually wear down Montevallo, it could be a long night. I like the Wildcats defense to set the tone with another strong performance against a stagnant Bulldogs offense and then let the ground game open up from there. Shelby County 21, Montevallo 7.

Oak Mountain (3-3) vs. Vestavia Hills (2-4)

For as much as the Eagles offense has led the way this season, last week, it was the defense that kept them in the game against Hoover thanks to some forced turnovers. Now, they’ll have to find a way to capitalize against a Rebels team that’s similar on paper to them but is very battle-tested. All of Vestavia’s losses have been to teams currently in the top five of the Class 7A rankings, and against teams like Prattville that Oak Mountain has played close with, it’s been blowouts like last week’s 49-14 win over the Lions. If the Eagles defense continues to show holes, this one could end similarly. However, I believe Will O’Dell, Marty Myricks and the Oak Mountain offense will come into this one motivated to perform after a disappointing result against Hoover with a playoff berth still very much alive. This one has the chance to be a firefight, but I foresee the Rebels getting more stops than the Eagles to decide this one. Vestavia Hills 35, Oak Mountain 24.

Thompson (5-2) at Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa (4-3)

The Warriors continue to play championship-caliber defense, and that showed in last week’s defensive stand against Hewitt-Trussville. Thompson’s offense still has plenty of questions to answer, but that unit will get some opportunities to make a statement against a Hillcrest defense that hasn’t exactly been potent against Class 7A’s best. The Patriots gave up 35 to Hoover, 47 to Hewitt and 49 to Vestavia Hills in their three losses this season, and they are giving up 27.2 across their whole schedule. When you consider how Trent Seaborn and company have feasted upon the lower half of Class 7A, Region 3, that could be the recipe for another massive night. This Thompson defense has been stellar at providing the offense with opportunities to win. They’ll capitalize on those chances this week. Thompson 42, Hillcrest-Tuscaloosa 7.

Calera (2-4) vs. Chilton County (2-5)

After adjusting to win on the road against Brookwood in non-region play last week, the Eagles have the chance to get another victory this Friday as they host a struggling Chilton County team. Calera continues to impress with its dynamic offense led by the big play ability of AJ Johnson and his receivers Braxton Brooks and KD Young. However, it was the defensive adjustments that swung last week’s game in their favor after a slow start, and the Eagles will need to show their improvements on that side of the ball this week against a Tigers offense that has been able to get on the scoreboard at times, including in a 39-7 win over Brookwood two weeks ago. With both teams giving up over 30 points a game on defense, whichever unit can get off the field unscathed more will win the day. This could be one of the closest games of the week, but I believe Scott Rials has this Calera team trending in the right direction over the past few weeks, and that will continue to show here. Calera 42, Chilton County 28.

Briarwood (2-5) vs. John Carroll (2-5)

The Lions certainly proved that their non-region upset of Leeds was no fluke as Luke Reynolds and the offense hung another 31 points on a top 10 team, this time on the road at Corner. This team is night-and-day different since the start of the season, but it’s crucial that Matthew Forester’s side doesn’t slip back to its former self. The Lions need to win both of their last two region games against John Carroll and Hayden to get into the playoffs. The Cavs also enter this matchup 1-3 in Class 5A, Region 5, making this renewing of a longtime rivalry even more crucial. Outside of a couple of wins over struggling offenses in Hayden and Montevallo, John Carroll has struggled to keep games close on defense, including giving up 30 to Wenonah last week. Mix in a Cavs offense that is scoring just 15.7 points per game, and that looks like a recipe for Briarwood to succeed. Expect the defense to lead the way with another consistent showing that keeps John Carroll out of the end zone and another big day from this resurgent Lions run game. Briarwood 28, John Carroll 7.

Vincent (5-1) at Aliceville (2-4)

After watching the Jackets live for the first time this season, I walked away extremely impressed despite the lopsided scoreline. I’ve seen so many teams pack it in down four scores to a top-five team, and all Vincent did was outscore a dynamic Tuscaloosa Academy team 21-7 in the second half. This team will be absolutely fine even though they took their first loss of the season last week. With three games left in region play, the Jackets are still in pole position to secure the No. 2 seed, but this week, they will have to go on the road and face another team that is 2-1 in region play in Aliceville. Granted, the other set of Yellow Jackets hasn’t exactly impressed this season, scoring 19.3 points per game and allowing 32.5. Outside of an explosive 47-27 win against Isabella, Aliceville has either kept it close or lost going away. The Vincent defense will be looking for a bounce-back performance, and it will have a great chance to get it here if it continues to defend the pass well and bring pressure up front. Combined with an offense that is ready to erupt with a big play at a moment’s notice, especially as Casen Fields and Landon Archer continue to bond, this is where Vincent will start rebuilding its momentum for the postseason. Vincent 28, Aliceville 7.

Evangel (6-2) at Southern Christian (4-1)

While the Lightning lost again to one of the best teams in AISA 11-man play last week, they get to get back to their bread and butter of 8-man football for the rest of the way. Evangel has its most crucial stretch of the season over the next two weeks against the two other teams with winning records in the ACSC: Southern Christian and East Central. This week, it’s a Patriots team that has yet to score less than 40 in a game. I expect Evangel to take that season-long dominance by Southern Christian and last week’s result at Chambers as challenges to come out and perform here, especially on offense. Evangel 48, Southern Christian 22.

Cornerstone (6-0) at Lakeside (3-2)

The Chargers enter this one well-rested after back-to-back bye weeks, the latter a result of Coosa Valley’s forfeit last week. While that could lead to rust for lesser teams, this Cornerstone side is well-disciplined and clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. With an important game against Macon-East next week that could be a battle of the unbeatens and a state championship preview, it’s important that the Chargers focus this week on a Lakeside team that has won three of its last four. However, the Chiefs haven’t shown themselves to be quite on the same level as the top of Class A, as they lost 46-28 to a Springwood team that Cornerstone dominated 60-12. The Chargers have left no doubts when facing opponents that they are favored to beat this season, and that should continue this week. Cornerstone 60, Lakeside 15.

Coosa Valley (1-5) vs. Macon-East Academy (5-0) (Thursday)

After forfeiting last week’s rivalry game against Cornerstone, we’ll have to see if the Rebels will be able to take the field this week. If they do though, they’ll be in for a stiff challenge against another undefeated team from Class A in Macon-East, which is averaging 52.4 points per game on offense and giving up 11.2 over on defense. While Coosa Valley was trending in the right direction with a three-quarter shutout of Evangel-Montgomery, the team has yet to show its ability to prevent an opponent’s fast start and climb out of an early hole. If that trend continues, it likely won’t lead to success against one of the best 8-man teams in the state. Macon-East 65, Coosa Valley 6.

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