Preview: UFC on ESPN 62 ‘Cannonier vs. Borralho’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with UFC on ESPN 62 —a show that doubles as “The Ultimate Fighter 32” Finale. The main event provides an intriguing veteran-versus-prospect clash with some significant stakes, as Jared Cannonier looks to defend his place on the fringes of the middleweight elite against rising Brazilian upstart Caio Borralho . The theme carries through the rest of the main draw in a series of well-matched fights. Angela Hill tries to hold serve against Tabatha Ricci , Neil Magny once again finds himself on gatekeeper duty against Michael Morales and Gerald Meerschaert provides another litmus test for Edmen Shahbazyan . Add in “The Ultimate Fighter” finals, and it should make for a strong three hours.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 62 “Cannonier vs. Borralho” preview:

Middleweights

#5 MW | Jared Cannonier (17-7, 10-7 UFC) vs. #12 MW | Caio Borralho (16-1, 6-0 PFL)

ODDS: Borralho (-218), Cannonier (+180)

After how his last fight ended, this is a crucial spot for Cannonier, since “The Killa Gorilla” could use a well-timed win to put himself back in the title picture. Cannonier’s first few years under the UFC banner were nothing special, as he started things off as an undersized heavyweight and eventually wound up as an unremarkable light heavyweight. Then Cannonier cut down to middleweight, and at that point, everything changed. It’s hard to think of a weight cut that unlocked more for a fighter in recent memory, as Cannonier suddenly found an elite level of horsepower relative to his peers. Cannonier’s game was still fairly pared down, but that didn’t seem to matter much. His physical strength made him difficult to overwhelm in close quarters, leaving opponents to deal with the knockout threat of one of the hardest hitters in the division. Cannonier’s limited approach only came back to bite him at the absolute top tier of the division, as both Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya were able to outmaneuver him ahead of decision victories. However, Cannonier rebounded from his unsuccessful title challenge against Adesanya in impressive fashion, beating Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori to put his name right back in the mix for contention. That was especially true once Adesanya’s title reign gave way to those of Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis , but an injury kept Cannonier out of the mix for a title fight, leaving him to return against Nassourdine Imavov in June while coming off a one-year layoff. Things were going well enough for Cannonier through three rounds against Imavov, as he seemed slightly ahead in a fairly unremarkable affair, but then his title hopes suddenly went up in smoke. Imavov landed a hard shot that seemed to stun Cannonier, and while his reactions weren’t the greatest, the referee stepped in for what felt like an extremely early stoppage. Luckily for Cannonier, things have shaken out where there isn’t an obvious next title challenger for Du Plessis, so with an impressive performance against Borralho, there’s a chance that his resume can sneak him back into the championship picture.

Borralho has spent the last three years proving he’s ready to take on the middleweight elite, and the Brazilian finally gets that shot here. Dating back to his two fights on the 2021 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, “The Natural” has proven himself as both a powerful striker and a control-heavy wrestler. Borralho has mostly leaned on the former to find his success in the UFC, but that hasn’t dissuaded the promotion from featuring him prominently. Given the opportunity to show off a wrestling advantage, Borralho is more than content to turn things into a grind. Of his six wins in the UFC to date, the four that have come by decision are by far the cleanest. As for the situation on the feet, that’s a bit harder to parse. Borralho shows some solid ideas with a bouncy approach from range and can hit like a truck when he commits, but he ate a lot of offense before staging a comeback against Michal Oleksiejczuk and an eventual knockout win of Paul Craig was messier than it needed to be. Cannonier is now 40 years old with a style dependent on athleticism, so there’s always a chance the wheels could fall off at any moment. For now, this does appear to be a tough matchup for Borralho, particularly over five rounds. Cannonier’s takedown defense can be spotty, but he’s underrated in terms of being able to outgrapple and control on the mat; and if this is a striking match, Borralho’s movement-heavy approach figures to tire the Brazilian out more as the two exchange power. Essentially, all of Borralho’s options seem to exhaust his gas tank, so unless he can score a quick finish, this looks like a fight that Cannonier can take over late. The pick is Cannonier via fourth-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Borralho
Ricci vs. Hill
Valentin vs. Loder
Ofli vs. Alves
Morales vs. Magny
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

#11 WSW | Tabatha Ricci (10-2, 5-2 UFC) vs. #9 WSW | Angela Hill (17-13, 12-13 UFC)

ODDS: Ricci (-112), Hill (-108)

After settling in as the strawweight division’s top gatekeeper, it’s nice to see Hill quietly on one of the best runs of her career. Hill got off to a late start in mixed martial arts and was thrown into the deep end early on, landing in the UFC through “The Ultimate Fighter” after only one professional win, but “Overkill” proved to be a quick study. After sliding out of the UFC, she put together a breakout 2016 in Invicta Fighting Championships and was back in the Octagon after about a year. From there, Hill stood out as a tough kickboxer before breaking through with a prolific six-fight run that started in 2019, cramming six fights into an 11-month span and earning a reputation as someone able to fight against anyone, anywhere at any time. By that point, Hill had solved her cardio issues and turned into a well-rounded striker, but some hard luck stopped her from ever getting over the hump into title contention. Split decision losses to Claudia Gadelha , Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Amanda Lemos all came in big spots where Hill had a case to win, and each could have changed the course of her career. After a loss to Mackenzie Dern in May 2023, Hill had seemingly settled into the gatekeeper role for good, though her last two results are enough to keep the glimmer of title contention alive. It’s not necessarily a shock that she was able to turn back Denise Gomes and Luana Pinheiro , but it’s extremely impressive that she did so on the back of her wrestling and grappling, even earning the first submission win of her career against Pinheiro. Hill looks to take care of another rising Brazilian talent here, as Ricci steps up to try and score the biggest win of her career.

Coming to the UFC in 2021 as a raw prospect, Ricci has done well to develop a solid game for herself in short order, though it’s unclear how much further up the ladder she can climb. “Baby Shark” comes from a grappling and judo background, and while she always has those skills in her back pocket, she has made a surprising amount of hay on the feet. Despite having one of the smallest frames in the UFC’s strawweight ranks, Ricci has found a lot of success leveraging her speed into a sniping approach from range. After a late-notice UFC debut at flyweight, there’s a case that Ricci should be undefeated as a strawweight inside the Octagon, as her only loss was a narrow decision against Lupita Godinez where she was able to land a lot of sharp offense. Ricci rebounded with a win over Tecia Pennington , leaning back on her clinch game against another small but speedy opponent, but it doesn’t appear that will be a safety valve in this test. Hill has always been underrated as a terror in the clinch, and that point was driven home in her last two fights. There’s a chance that Ricci can outquick Hill on the feet effectively for three rounds, but it’s up to her to make that choice; and even in a striking match, things are clicking enough for Hill that the American gets the nod. The pick is Hill via decision.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Borralho
Ricci vs. Hill
Valentin vs. Loder
Ofli vs. Alves
Morales vs. Magny
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims

‘The Ultimate Fighter 32’ Middleweight Final

Robert Valentin (10-3, 0-0 UFC) vs. Ryan Loder (6-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: N/A

Two solid talents square off for the “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 32 middleweight crown here. Switzerland’s Valentin was one of the highlights of the season, both inside and outside the cage. Beyond being a standout personality, “Robzilla” also brought the violence whenever the opportunity called for it. That’s consistent with Valentin’s pre-reality show career, which included a lot of blood being spilled in some all-offense, no-defense affairs. Valentin’s disregard for defense figures to come back and bite him at some point, but it hasn’t proven to be much of an issue thus far, particularly since he’s dangerous in every phase. While he comes off as a bit of a rudimentary slugger, Valentin’s ace in the hole is a surprisingly crafty and vicious grappling game that he gets to break out from time to time. Valentin will look to put those skills to good use against California’s Loder, who leans towards a more neutralizing approach.

A former collegiate wrestling standout, Loder has about the game you’d expect from a prospect with that background who’s only a few years into his career. He has shown some solid ideas on the feet and has some knockout power, but it’s mostly in the name of keeping things safe until he can take opponents to the mat. There’s a lot to work with for Loder, particularly given his long frame, but there is the worry that his upside might be a bit limited as a 33-year-old who came into mixed martial arts on the later side. Loder might succeed at turning this into a grind given his adversary’s openness for takedowns, but the read is that Valentin’s sheer commitment to activity will eventually wear the American out and result in a finish. The pick is Valentin via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Borralho
Ricci vs. Hill
Valentin vs. Loder
Ofli vs. Alves
Morales vs. Magny
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims

‘The Ultimate Fighter 32’ Featherweight Final

Kaan Ofli (11-2-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Mairon Santos Alves (13-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: N/A

As it turns out, Alves’ UFC debut was just delayed a year. Sean Woodson had issues finding an opponent for a fight in August 2023, and Alves was one of the fighters attached to that spot before visa issues got in the way. After working his way to the featherweight final of this season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” the Brazilian gets his long-awaited first trip to the Octagon and a shot at a UFC contract. Just 24 years old, Alves is a solid striker with some power in his hands, even though he’s still a bit one-dimensional at the moment. The most prominent of his pre-UFC fights saw eventual UFC signee and previous “The Ultimate Fighter” alum Dan Argueta outwrestle Alves without much issue. That’s the obvious weakness against fellow finalist Ofli.

Representing Australia, Ofli leaned on his ground skills to make his way through the “The Ultimate Fighter” bracket, though his regional record does show that he has enough striking in his back pocket to keep most opponents honest. That might not be the case in this outing, but it also figures to be a moot point since Ofli should be able to make this a grind. The pick is Ofli via decision.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Borralho
Ricci vs. Hill
Valentin vs. Loder
Ofli vs. Alves
Morales vs. Magny
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims

Welterweights

Michael Morales (16-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #12 WW | Neil Magny (29-11, 22-10 UFC)

ODDS: Morales (-800), Magny (+550)

It’s time once again for Magny to put a top welterweight prospect to the test. Magny overcame a rough start to his UFC career and put together a shockingly successful run over the course of 2015 and 2016, fighting five times per year and winning nine of those 10 bouts. That streak landed “The Haitian Sensation” in the welterweight rankings, and he has remained there since, essentially serving as the gatekeeper for the promotional Top 10. Magny takes an approach that has been surprisingly tough for the opposition to crack, as his game is built around two ideas. Magny will first use his long frame to flick out strikes at his opponents from range, and once they are frustrated enough to close distance, he drags them into a sneakily strong clinch game that usually exhausts them over time. It’s a trap that opponent after opponent has fallen into, with the caveat that things tend to get blown wide open if someone can beat Magny handily in one of those two phases. Magny has suffered some rough losses against foes who have either chopped him down from range or proven to be physically stronger grapplers. At 37 years old and after an active decade of fights, it does appear Magny is starting to slow down in his last handful of performances, though his January win over Mike Malott was a reminder of just how tough he remains. Malott was handily winning the fight for the better part of two and a half rounds until Magny suddenly turned things around and scored a finish. Next on the docket is Morales, who has marked himself as a high-upside talent since his win on the Contender Series in 2021.

Representing Ecuador and fighting out of Mexico, Morales was a fairly straightforward knockout threat on the regional scene before mixing things up on the Contender Series, staying patient against his toughest opponent to date and coasting out a decision victory. That’s where things have stayed for the better part of Morales’ four-fight UFC career. He has found some knockouts against Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt but hasn’t really pressed the action, relying on his athleticism and vision to see him through some striking matches from range without much of a greater plan. It’s hard to complain, given that Morales has an undefeated record against some solid competition at just 25 years of age, but it will be interesting to see if and when he can hit another gear to truly lay the wood on opponents like his talents would suggest, even though it might take him having to suffer some adversity to get there. It’s unclear if Morales will fall into the usual Magny trap of clinching with the American. By default, it does seem like this could wind up as a fairly frustrating striking match, with Morales content to trade with Magny from range at a pace that never gets above a simmer. That could wind up as a coinflip, but Morales’ perpetual potential for something more—and Magny seemingly being on a slow decline—gives the prospect the edge. The pick is Morales via decision.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Borralho
Ricci vs. Hill
Valentin vs. Loder
Ofli vs. Alves
Morales vs. Magny
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims

Middleweights

Edmen Shahbazyan (13-4, 6-4 UFC) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (36-17, 11-9 UFC)

ODDS: Shahbazyan (-310), Meerschaert (+250)

Shahbazyan is somehow still 26 years old, so there’s still hope for “The Golden Boy” to work his way back towards the top of the middleweight division, particularly since he has shown some progress in his last few fights. Shahbazyan was easy to write off ahead of his 2018 appearance on the Contender Series. His connections to Ronda Rousey seemingly helped him get the spot, given that Shabazyan’s record consisted of quick wins against what barely qualified as professional competition. No matter how he got the opportunity, Shahbazyan immediately proved he was a prospect to watch, racking up quick wins—and one wrestling-heavy decision over Darren Stewart —to break his way into the UFC’s middleweight rankings. However, once Shahbazyan started getting big opportunities, beginning with a main event spot against Derek Brunson in 2020, the wheels started to fall off. Shahbazyan continued to prove he was as sharp as anyone with his weapons for about a round, but once Brunson, Jack Hermansson and Nassourdine Imavov were each able to survive that early onslaught, he seemingly folded under the pressure, sometimes in particularly brutal fashion. After the Imavov loss, Shahbazyan took some time off to retool, and there has been clear improvement in fits and starts. He paced himself well against Dalcha Lungiambula , and while that just got him thrown into a loss against Anthony Hernandez in a particularly poisonous style matchup, he did manage to stage the first real comeback of his career in a bounce-back win over A.J. Dobson in March. However, concerns about Shahbazyan’s cardio still persist—the Dobson fight was over within a round despite its momentum swings—so it’s up to Meerschaert to try and drag Shahbazyan into deep waters.

That has typically been the name of the game for Meerschaert, who took the long road to the UFC roster, getting the call about a decade into his professional career. Meerschaert has settled into a gatekeeper role with a clear set of skills. He has improved greatly as a striker during his time on the UFC roster, but his lack of speed means that his best course of action is still to try and turn things into a grind and work for a submission. Sometimes that fails miserably, but Meerschaert also has his fair share of comeback wins against much better athletes, so it’s hard to entirely count “GM3” out until things are completely over. This is a clear two-true-outcome bout, with Shahbazyan either scoring the early finish or Meerschaert wearing him out and ending this late. Shahbazyan’s sharp enough that he gets the benefit of the doubt, making for a big win that also won’t answer a lot of questions. The pick is Shahbazyan via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Borralho
Ricci vs. Hill
Valentin vs. Loder
Ofli vs. Alves
Morales vs. Magny
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
The Prelims