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Preview: UFC 306 Prelims
By Tom Feely,
1 days ago
UFC 306 should be fascinating, if only for the much-hyped production the Ultimate Fighting Championship plans to put on inside the Sphere on Saturday in Las Vegas, but the matches themselves should make for a good time; and some strange choices in bout order have led to some engaging stuff on the prelims. Two interesting fights bookend the undercard. The top prelim sees Irene Aldana —fresh off a surprising “Fight of the Year” contender against Karol Rosa in December—take on Norma Dumont in a clash that could put the winner in the women’s bantamweight title picture, while the opener serves as the latest test for bantamweight wunderkind Raul Rosas Jr. , who draws a winnable but dangerous assignment against Qileng Aori . Other than that, the lineup offers fights that feature some high-upside prospects on the rise, from lightweights Manuel Torres and Ignacio Bahamondes to women’s strawweight Yazmin Jauregui and flyweight Joshua Van .
The women’s bantamweight division remains fairly wide open for whoever is able to make a statement, so this well-matched fight could put the winner in a strong position. Aldana did well to overcome a tough start to her UFC career. Regarded as one of the top talents available when the UFC signed her in 2016, the Mexican lived up to the scouting report as an entertaining striker but struggled to keep up with Leslie Smith and Katlyn Cerminara , both in terms of pace and speed. However, Aldana eventually found her level, helped by the development of a bit of knockout power and the fact that she never gets out over her proverbial skis. That has made for some frustrating showings when Aldana cannot find a clear avenue to break the fight open, which included her most high-profile fight to date—a main event title fight against Amanda Nunes in June 2023. Aldana simply never got going out of the gates, losing a one-sided decision in what turned out to be Nunes’ retirement fight. Aldana quickly regained her momentum with a win over Karol Rosa in December. Beyond the result, it was a late entry for the potential best fight of 2023, a tooth-and-nail war that saw Aldana essentially ignore Rosa’s highly successful leg-kicking game and keep marching forward. Aldana looks to keep the good times rolling with a win over Brazil’s Dumont, who appears to be on her way towards affirming herself as a bantamweight contender.
A big part of that is Dumont actually proving she can make the bantamweight limit. Brought in as a featherweight and mostly fighting at 145 pounds, Dumont’s cuts down to 135 pounds went disastrously until she made weight for her fight against Germaine de Randamie in April. Dumont has made a solid adaptation from a straightforward bully to a slow-paced neutralizer over the course of her four years and change under the UFC banner, and now she is typically able to either counter her opponents effectively from range or slow things to an absolute crawl in the clinch. It can be a bit dull at points, but Dumont showed some additional pop in her hands against Chelsea Chandler prior to her win over de Randamie; and while that last victory was a wrestling-heavy slog, it’s also hard to blame Dumont for taking that approach against a decorated striker. The main concern from an Aldana standpoint is that Dumont is strong enough to smother her and grind this out, though that figures to be a tough ask. Aldana has some strength herself, and she’s able to fight back with some violent offense whenever things wind up in the clinch position. Add in that Aldana seems more willing than ever to keep moving forward and landing offense, particularly after the Rosa fight, and the Mexican figures to win this on the scorecards, even if it won’t be a blowout. The pick is Aldana via decision.
Torres has looked quite impressive thus far in his UFC career, but it’s time for Mexico’s “El Loco” to answer some questions. Torres was a pure flier ahead of his 2021 showing on Dana White’s Contender Series. On the regional scene, he was a reckless wildman who tended to rely a lot on getting to his wrestling and grappling game, and even then, he had walked himself into a few quick losses. To his credit, Torres suddenly looked much sharper in his Contender Series bout, even if his contract-earning win was marred a bit by the finish being set up by an inadvertent eye poke. At any rate, once Torres had his foot in the door, he continued to impress. His fights have all still ended within a round, but Torres has shown a willingness to pick his spots to throw with power, scoring two quick knockouts before finally pivoting back to his ground game with a submission win over Chris Duncan in February. Torres has looked sharp, but there’s still the question of how he fares against an opponent who can drag him into a longer fight. That’s where Bahamondes comes in.
Chile’s Bahamondes is another talented young prospect, and while “La Jaula” has put together a solid UFC campaign, there’s still a sense that everyone’s waiting for him to take another leap in terms of effectiveness. Massive for the lightweight division at 6-foot-3, Bahamondes has shown flashes of a grappling game but mostly looks to march forward and swamp his opponent with striking volume made all the more intimidating by his frame. That has overwhelmed opponents up to a point, during which Bahamondes has looked like an absolute terror, but that has made his losses all the more frustrating. John Makdessi and Ludovit Klein , much shorter fighters, found success standing their ground and either blasting Bahamondes or taking him down, landing hard enough to win rounds while slowing down his pace. Torres certainly has the tools to follow that game plan, but it’s essentially a complete unknown as to whether or not he can keep that approach up for more than a round. A Torres win wouldn’t be a shock, but this is basically a coinflip and he doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. The pick is Bahamondes via second-round stoppage.
While 2023 was a lost year for Jauregui, it looks like the experience might pay off for her in the long run. Jauregui rightfully had a ton of hype ahead of her UFC debut in 2022 and lived up to it in her first two trips to the Octagon. Primarily a striker, she brings a rare level of technical aggression to her fights, which allowed her to overwhelm Iasmin Lucindo and Istela Nunes over the long haul. However, Jauregui’s lone fight of 2023 showed that her style wasn’t sustainable—a point that was proven in particularly definitive fashion with Denise Gomes meeting her head-on and scoring a knockout in just 20 seconds. Jauregui eventually returned for a fight against Sam Hughes in February, and it appears she has learned the right lessons from the loss. Rather than attempt to feel her way into a fight early through all-out aggression, Jauregui picked her spots much more effectively while still keeping up a pace, resulting in a one-sided decision victory over an underrated gatekeeper. The UFC has decided against rushing Jauregui back up the ladder for a follow-up, since this bout against Souza looks quite winnable for the Mexican prospect.
Brazil’s Souza seemed to be clicking on all cylinders ahead of her UFC callup in 2023, which has made her recent performances a bit of a disappointment. After quickly falling into a kneebar against Karine Silva in her UFC debut and suffering an injury as a result, Souza’s rebound win over Marnic Mann wasn’t particularly inspiring. Souza seemingly had every advantage but meandered her way to a slow-paced and wrestling-heavy decision victory, even allowing Mann a late comeback in the process. Souza might succeed in slowing things down a bit if she dedicates herself to an ugly grind, but this looks like a bout where Jauregui should be able to break the Brazilian down to an increasing level of success as things go on. The pick is Jauregui via third-round stoppage.
Van is coming off his first loss inside the UFC, but he’s still one of the promotion’s brightest young prospects. A professional since 2021, Van has kept a busy schedule and proved a surprisingly quick study. Initially an aggressive and one-dimensional striker, Van developed an effective wrestling and grappling game over the stretch of a few months leading up to his UFC debut in June 2023. Once Van made it to the Octagon, his fights started to follow the same script. Things would be exciting throughout, but it would take Van about a round to feel his way into the fight until he started breaking down opponents with some impressively diverse and precise aggression. Things seemed to be going the same way in a barnburner against Charles Johnson in July. Then Johnson caught Van with a brutal uppercut at the start of the third round, stopping his momentum along with the fight itself. Van’s UFC career has been marked by a willingness to accept late-notice fights—the Johnson bout was only his second of the year, though four other potential matchups fell through—so it’s not a shock to see him step in again, this time against Chairez.
Mexico’s Chairez might not have championship potential, but he has the type of well-rounded veteran game that figures to make him a divisional stalwart. Large for a flyweight, “Puro Chicali” is typically content to stay at range and slowly pick his opponents apart on the feet, then lean on a crafty grappling game—including a well-practiced guillotine choke—if they decide to close ranks and take things to the mat. Chairez’s UFC debut saw him frustrate Tatsuro Taira for three rounds and survive to a decision loss—a result that looks more impressive as time goes on—but he has mostly wasted the past year being booked against Daniel da Silva . Chairez seemingly had a first-round submission well in hand before an early referee stoppage, resulting in the UFC repeatedly rebooking the fight until he simply scored another quick submission victory. At any rate, Chairez should once again be able to survive three rounds against a talented young opponent, but it’s hard to see him taking this on the scorecards. Even if Van takes his foot off the gas a bit after his recent knockout loss, the Burmese-American should consistently hit the sharpest shots of the fight. The pick is Van via decision.
It’s time for Rosas to get another test. Rosas’ main selling point thus far has been his youth, as he was signed off the Contender Series at the age of 17 and made his UFC debut a few months later at 18. As a fighter, “El Nino Problema” is still fairly one-dimensional, but that one dimension has served him well thus far. An aggressive wrestler and grappler, Rosas has scrambled his way towards finding a finish in three of his four trips to the Octagon. It’s that fourth fight that’s the issue, as Rosas got off to a hot start but faded badly against Christian Rodriguez , eating a one-sided beating by the later portions of what wound up as a decision loss. The hope was that Rosas might have used that result as a learning experience, particularly in terms of pacing himself, but he has been much the same fighter since, which has still resulted in two straight wins. Up next for Rosas is Aori in a winnable matchup that nonetheless has the potential to go sideways.
Aori had a rough start to his UFC career as a high-powered flyweight with some cardio issues, but he has looked much better since moving up to bantamweight in 2022. “The Mongolian Murderer” has retained his power, finding success with a style focused around blasting opponents with some hard counters. However, Aori hasn’t done particularly well against opponents willing to pressure, and his planted style tends to leave a lot of defensive openings, whether for takedowns or big counters. There’s certainly the chance that Aori can land a knockout blow or pour on some damage if he finds himself on top of Rosas. at any point. With that said, Rosas should be able to take the initiative, turn this into his kind of fight and eventually find the finish. The pick is Rosas via second-round submission.
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