Preview: UFC 307 Prelims

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Salt Lake City with a surprisingly strong preliminary slate at the Delta Center. Two big fights top the UFC 307 undercard, as Joaquin Buckley attempts to break through to welterweight contention against Stephen Thompson and rising young women’s strawweight Iasmin Lucindo gets thrown into the fire against fringe contender Marina Rodriguez . Further down the lineup, two-time women’s strawweight champion Carla Esparza caps off an underrated run in MMA in her retirement fight against Tecia Pennington , and Ovince St. Preux looks to get an unlikely late-career winning streak going against Ryan Spann at 205 pounds.

Now to the preview for the UFC 307 “Pereira vs. Rountree” prelims:

Welterweights

#11 WW | Joaquin Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) vs. #9 WW | Stephen Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC)

ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

He might yet hit a ceiling in his new weight class, but Buckley’s cut down to welterweight has paid a ton of dividends thus far. A 2020 signing, Buckley stood out as a middleweight prospect to watch even before he became an overnight sensation, going viral with one of most spectacular knockouts in UFC history, a jumping spinning back kick to beat Impa Kasanganay in Buckley’s second UFC fight. Both the UFC and Buckley did well to capitalize on things in the short term by keeping him active—Buckley’s always been willing to keep up an active schedule—but a knockout loss to Alessio Di Chirico stopped his momentum and affirmed the issues in Buckley’s game. Buckley’s standout ability heading into his UFC debut was that he could throw power for three rounds without getting tired, but he’s always done so in fairly straightforward fashion. When “New Mansa” runs into an opponent that can survive his onslaught and get a feel for his rhythms, there’s a solid chance that Buckley will charge right into a knockout. That happened enough times that Buckley decided to cut down to 170 pounds last year, and while he’s much the same fighter, warts and all, his physicality as a welterweight has papered over those flaws. He still hits like a truck, his cardio hasn’t been affected and he’s not getting hit as hard in return, so Buckley should at the very least remain a fun gatekeeper for the welterweight elite for the next few years, even if he doesn’t improve from here. This fight against Thompson serves as Buckley’s big test to try and make it as a welterweight contender, but it also feels like just as much a referendum on where Thompson is at 41 years of age. A pure karate specialist, Thompson seemingly got exposed by Matt Brown shortly after his 2012 UFC debut, but that proved to be the low point for “Wonderboy.” The loss aged well, as Brown started his own ascent towards title contention, and Thompson learned enough takedown defense to typically keep his fights standing. From there, Thompson’s combination of size, speed and accuracy allowed him to outclass and embarrass a lot of mixed martial artists in a kickboxing match, sometimes with spectacular results. Things started to fall apart a bit when Thompson got into title contention. His two-fight title series with Tyron Woodley —a second fight was necessary because the first ended in a draw—highlighted a lot of the worst issues in Thompson’s approach, as both men’s commitment to counterstriking led to some unwatchable stretches due to inactivity. Given that result, the UFC didn’t particularly prioritize putting Thompson back in the title picture, but he’s hung around as a relevant fighter in the years since. With that said, he’s clearly aged out of title contention, with losses to Gilbert Burns , Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov showing that while Thompson’s still quite effective as a striker, he’s lost enough steps in terms of quick-twitch athleticism that he can now be effectively outwrestled. Even his most recent win, a decision victory over Kevin Holland to cap off 2022, was a messier affair than you’d prefer from someone that made his name with so much craft. Buckley’s dangerous-but-rudimentary approach is the type of game that Thompson would’ve carved up a few years ago, so a lot of this comes down to whether or not the former title contender still has sharp enough reflexes to fight a clean three rounds without getting caught. That’s a coinflip in and of itself, but adding in the chance that Buckley can wrestle his way to victory leads to the read that he can announce himself as a fresh welterweight contender here. The pick is Buckley via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee

Women’s Strawweights

#14 WSW | Iasmin Lucindo (16-5, 3-1 UFC) vs. #6 WSW | Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2, 7-4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Lucindo (-175), Rodriguez (+145)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

This is a fascinating fight to sort things out at strawweight, pairing off two Brazilians whose success has been a bit hard to parse at times. Lucindo made her UFC debut in 2022, dropping an entertaining decision to fellow newcomer Yazmin Jauregui . Because Jauregui was considered to be the elite prospect at the time, it’s been fascinating to see her struggle while Lucindo has worked her way up the ranks. Lucindo started her fighting career at 15 years old, so she’s already well-tested at 22 years of age, and she’s an obvious physical talent, which has carried her through some inconsistent performances. At her best as a wrestler on the regional scene, Lucindo didn’t really get a chance to dominate with those skills in either of her 2023 wins. A clear victory over Brogan Walker saw her accomplish little in a striking match where Walker did even less, and a submission victory over Polyana Viana came after a lot of messiness that Lucindo wasn’t particularly getting the better of. Her most one-sided UFC win to date came in her last fight, a May victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz that saw Lucindo land some hard shots early and use that to set up both successful striking and wrestling. It wasn’t the type of awe-inspiring performance that suggests Lucindo is immediately ready to join the strawweight elite, but it was a good showing against a tough veteran who has been hard to look good against in recent years. At any rate, Lucindo gets a big shot against Rodriguez, who’s settled in just outside of strawweight contender status. Rodriguez rose through the ranks after her 2018 UFC debut with a game that was more than the sum of its parts. Primarily a striker and not particularly athletic, Rodriguez showed enough takedown defense in spots to be able to keep pouring striking volume onto her opponents, even if it felt like she was scraping by at times. Rodriguez only lost one of her first nine UFC fights, which could’ve set her up for a title shot in 2022 had things broken differently, but instead, it seems like a lot of her issues have finally come back to bite her. Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade brought enough horsepower to stay ahead of Rodriguez—Lemos knocked her out—and Virna Jandiroba neutralized Rodriguez by going after an all-out wrestling attack. With that said, Rodriguez is still effective, as she ran over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in the midst of those losses and nearly got the decision win over Andrade; and her approach does make a lot more sense than what Lucindo is working with at the moment. While it’s entirely possible that Lucindo either makes the leap into a consistently effective fighter or lands one or two fight-changing moments of offense, the safer bet seems to be Rodriguez surviving and stringing together three solid rounds to take this on the scorecards. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee

Middleweights

Cesar Almeida (5-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Ihor Potieria (20-6, 2-4 UFC)

ODDS: Almeida (-410), Potieria (+320)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

While the dream of Almeida working himself into middleweight title contention now seems to be over, he should at least continue having some fun fights like this one. The Brazilian was the latest high-level kickboxer to transition into the UFC’s middleweight ranks when he appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series last year, and the hope was that he could find a level of success similar to Israel Adesanya or Alex Pereira . Almeida figured to have a narrower path to contention, however, in part thanks to his late start, as he is now in his mid-30s. Things went fine enough given the expectations in Almeida’s Contender Series win and his UFC debut. He’s obviously not the same level of explosive finisher as Adesanya or Pereira, but he did show a solid level of grappling defense for someone with his lack of experience. However, after his loss to Roman Kopylov in June, it doesn’t appear that Almeida will be able to thread the proverbial needle and rise through the ranks. Kopylov is typically a striker by trade but outwrestled Almeida for three rounds without much issue. Almeida looks to rebound here against Potieria, who’s attempting to become known for more than being the man that ended the career of Mauricio Rua . For a while, that looked like it’d wind up as Potieria’s lone UFC win. The Ukrainian had some physical talent, but an untested regional career left him settling in as a brawler who would often charge into knockouts. To his credit, Potieria showed some more ideas in a fight late last year against Rodolfo Bellato —albeit in a loss—and does seem to be a viable middleweight since cutting down to 185 pounds a few months ago, even if he got quickly finished by Michel Pereira in May. Potieria’s going to try a lot of things, and that might be enough given the one-dimensionality of Almeida’s game at the moment. Still, it does seem like the Ukrainian’s approach is going to give Almeida a decent shot at scoring a knockout blow. The pick is Almeida via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee

Lightweights

Alexander Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC) vs. Austin Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC)

ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

It’s unclear where Hernandez goes from here, but at least he’s at a point where he’s overcome the issues that threatened to completely derail his mixed martial arts career. Hernandez was one of the UFC’s breakout newcomers of 2018, debuting with a 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush and following that with a dominant win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier , seemingly setting him up for a run towards title contention in 2019. Then came his fight against Donald Cerrone . In one of the last great performances of Cerrone’s career, the veteran blew apart every hole in Hernandez’s aggressive approach, eventually scoring a second-round knockout and sending him careening into the proverbial wilderness. Hernandez at first wildly overcorrected with a distressingly inactive fight against Francisco Trinaldo , then cycled through various ideas that never seemed to fix his issues. He could still blow through the lowest reaches of the UFC’s lightweight roster but also consistently imploded against any opponent able to stick around. It wasn’t until a 2023 win over Jim Miller that Hernandez seemed to finally put everything together, but it hasn’t resulted in any sort of major momentum. Hernandez has been plying his trade at featherweight since and wound up losing decisions to Bill Algeo and Damon Jackson . They were both surprisingly solid performances against the type of fighter that would’ve easily broken Hernandez in the past—he even staged a late comeback against Jackson—but it seems like he’ll be destined to settle in as a solid midcard fighter, which isn’t quite what most would’ve hoped five years ago but is also much better than things were looking in recent years. He now takes a late-notice fight up at lightweight against Hubbard for what should be a solid affair. The UFC quietly cut ties with Hubbard in 2021, but he was back in the promotion within two years and has continued his trend of alternating wins and losses. That all feels about right for “Thud,” who’s about the most solidly unexciting fighter on the UFC roster. He’s a tough out who’s technically sound and can handle his own anywhere, but the lack of wrinkles in his game has made it hard for him to surprise his opponents and find a finish. Now that Hernandez can put together three solid rounds, he should be able to take an early lead and cruise to a win in a decent enough fight. The pick is Hernandez via decision.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee

Women’s Strawweights

Tecia Pennington (13-7, 9-7 UFC) vs. Carla Esparza (19-7, 10-5 UFC)

ODDS: Pennington (-180), Esparza (+150)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

This marks the retirement fight for Esparza, ending what’s destined to become one of the most underrated careers in UFC history. The UFC first established its strawweight division with a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2014 to crown a champion, and Esparza cashed in on her status as both the favorite and the top seed, using her wrestling game to control the competition before beating Rose Namajunas for the vacant belt. However, “The Cookie Monster” quickly became an afterthought. Esparza’s first title defense saw her get torn apart by Joanna Jedrzejczyk , who’d go on to establish herself as the queen of the division. As for Esparza, she stayed relevant but seemed destined to become a footnote in the grand scheme of things. She threaded the needle the best she could as a one-dimensional wrestler who was quite undersized for the division, but she kept running into better athletes that would seemingly keep her permanently away from a return to title contention. Just when it seemed safe to write Esparza off as a title contender, she quietly reeled off five straight wins and suddenly found herself as the top contender for Namajunas, who had become strawweight champion by 2022. The resulting rematch was compelling in its own way, even if it’s one of the worst title fights in the history of mixed martial arts. Namajunas had developed all the tools to dominate the rematch but was seemingly so focused on freezing out Esparza’s wrestling that she didn’t throw out any offense herself. It led to five rounds of inactivity on both sides and Esparza walking away with the decision win and the belt. No matter the circumstances, Esparza finding her way to a second strawweight title reign was a massive accomplishment, even if things ended in much the same way as the first. Weili Zhang rolled over Esparza in her first title defense, and she has been out of action for nearly two years since due to pregnancy. Her return comes in a fight that somehow technically hasn’t happened yet. She faced Pennington on “The Ultimate Fighter,” but they have never had an official fight despite being relevant for the entirety of the UFC’s strawweight divisional history. While Esparza was the clear top dog at strawweight when the UFC launched the division, the Pennington was one its brightest prospects, having quickly established herself at a high level. “The Tiny Tornado” didn’t have much in the way of knockout power but lived up to her nickname as someone able to drown her opponents in striking volume with her considerable speed. Impressively—for better or for worse—Pennington has remained almost exactly the same fighter for the next decade. Her squat frame has given her some trouble against someone of the better athletes in the division that also have some size, but Pennington has never been an easy out and is still capable of beating a vast swath of the division. That nearly included Tabatha Ricci , who barely walked away with a decision win over her in May in Pennington’s own return from pregnancy, and it might include Esparza. Pennington is an absolute tank who won’t be easy to take down, and it’s hard to tell exactly how the former champion will look between coming back from pregnancy after two years and with retirement in the imminent future. Pennington might actually be the smarter pick, especially with the elevation of Salt Lake City also potentially affecting Esparza’s spotty gas tank, but the benefit of the doubt goes to the former champ and the potential that she can outwrestle the rare opponent who’s her own size. The pick is Esparza via decision.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee

Light Heavyweights

Ryan Spann (21-10, 7-5 UFC) vs. Ovince St. Preux (27-17, 15-12 UFC)

ODDS: Spann (-340), St. Preux (+270)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

A late scratch from a card last month, this solid light heavyweight bout instead lands here. Somehow, St. Preux isn’t done just yet. “OSP” has hit some high points in his career since coming to the UFC via Strikeforce in 2013, including fighting for the interim title against Jon Jones , but the fall figured to be hard for him whenever the end of his career drew near. St. Preux has never had much of a consistent approach, instead picking up a grab bag of skills along his career that only held together thanks to his high-level athleticism. In a division like light heavyweight, that made St. Preux both a viable knockout and submission threat at his peak—including a surprising run as a newfound master of the Von Flue choke—but once he slowed down in terms of both speed and output in his late 30s, that made for extremely tough going. Beyond the issues with his offensive approach, St. Preux’s durability seemed to fail him in a few knockout losses, so it was a shock when he suddenly turned around a rough stretch with a win against Kennedy Nzechukwu in March. The result said a lot about Nzechukwu’s tendencies for slow starts and inability to pick up the pace, but it was nice to see St. Preux simply survive against a hard hitter for three rounds, with the victory only serving as a bonus. Spann seems like a tough next matchup given that “Superman” has only just fallen out of the UFC’s rankings after his last loss. Then again, inconsistency seems to be the only thing consistent about Spann’s UFC career. This is a mirror match in a way, given that Spann is another elite physical talent who doesn’t always seem comfortable inside the cage. While St. Preux learned to stay cautious and wait for his spots, Spann tends to try and lead the dance and see where things go from there. That’s led to some grinds when Spann feels like clinching and wrestling, but it just as often makes for some exciting coinflips, with his lack of defense resulting in him trading shots with his opponent in the hopes of scaring each other off—and usually scoring a knockout. After looking sharp against Dominick Reyes to cap off 2022, things have wound up going against Spann in his last three fights, with an April knockout to Bogdan Guskov completely derailing what momentum he has had in recent years. There’s certainly a chance that Spann could walk himself into one of St. Preux’s off-kilter techniques. However, the lean here is that things don’t go quite as sanguine for St. Preux this time around against someone willing to take some risks offensively. The pick is Spann via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee

Welterweights

Tim Means (33-16-1, 15-13 UFC) vs. Court McGee (21-13, 10-12 UFC)

ODDS: Means (-225), McGee (+185)

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

Some solid matchmaking here pairs off two beloved veterans at the end of their careers, and it will be interesting to see if this fight in Salt Lake City winds up as the retirement bout for Utah’s McGee. “The Crusher” won season 11 of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2010, and while McGee didn’t shoot to stardom from there, he was a welcome addition to any card. His toughness and solid grasp of the fundamentals usually resulted in an entertaining fight, and his background of overcoming drug addiction and helping others do the same also provided a clear rooting interest. McGee chugged along for over a decade as a tough midcard fighter, even after missing two years due to some major injuries. Back-to-back losses against Jeremiah Wells and Matt Brown were the first worrying signs that McGee might be nearing the end of the road. He’d obviously slowed down in his mid-30s even while having patches of success, but those two losses saw his durability betray him for the first time. Given that standard, it was nice to see McGee survive to the final horn in a loss to Alex Morono in April, but there is a sense that he might not have much of a margin for error left in terms of getting into the win column, so the UFC did well to match him with Means, who finds himself in a similar spot. After a forgettable first stint in the UFC that saw Means drain himself to try and make lightweight, “The Dirty Bird” returned to the UFC at 170 pounds and immediately became one of the cult favorites of the division, showing off a surprising amount of technical skill for someone who is clearly a brawler at heart. A sure bet to bring the violence every time out, Means never got a true breakout victory despite being a consistent highlight of the card, and a few rough losses circa 2019 and 2020 seemed to be the first sign that his career was finally catching up to him. However, he reeled off three workmanlike wins before settling into what seems to be a final late-career slide. Means still has his moments of brilliance, but having such an aggressive style that’s also often reliant on sharp counters has made it a rough go now that his chin appears to be a liability. A win over Andre Fialho about a year ago raised some hope that Means might have just worked his way through another tough patch, but after quickly getting starched by Uros Medic in April, it does seem like time is running out. This fight is a double-edged sword, as these two should wind up having one more war that’s likely going to end with one of them getting knocked out by something they could’ve eaten a few years ago. As to who, that’s essentially a coinflip. McGee’s chin does seem like more of a liability on a punch-for-punch basis, but Means’ style allows for many more openings to get hit by something he doesn’t see coming. The benefit of the doubt goes to the more aggressive fighter. The pick is Means via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee