Normal wildfire risk expected through fall in NM, forecast says

Homes and rubble remain interspersed between trees burned in the South Fork fires on Aug. 20, 2024. The September forecast from the National Interagency Fire Center says wildfire risk in New Mexico will be normal through December. (Photo by Danielle Prokop / Source NM)

A new wildfire risk forecast says New Mexico and most of the Southwest will not have above-average wildfire risk through December, though global weather patterns still add some uncertainty.

The September outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center no longer predicts that northwest and central New Mexico will see above-normal wildfire risk through October, which would have meant a much later end to the wildfire season than is typical here. The wildfire season in New Mexico typically ends when monsoons arrive.

Early monsoon rains fell across much of the state in mid-June, which aided firefighters’ efforts to contain the most destructive wildfires in New Mexico this year. The South Fork and Salt fires in the Ruidoso area burned about 25,000 acres and destroyed more than 1,100 homes.

Forecast: Reduced wildfire risk in New Mexico in August, as much of the West burns

Still, how hot and dry New Mexico will be this season hinges on sea temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean, according to the outlook.

Forecasters expect El Niño to transition to La Niña in the fall.This typically means drier conditions for New Mexico, but that shift has happened slowly.

According to the outlook, the longer the climate pattern stays “neutral,” not falling into either El Niño or La Niña, the weather will be more unpredictable.

“The possible emergence of a La Niña will be monitored as that could strongly impact the fall weather and climate for the Southwest Area,” the outlook says.

So far in New Mexico this year, 712 wildfires have been detected. In total, those fires have burned more than 87,000 acres. Of them, 315 were human-caused, 319 were lightning-caused, and 78 more are “unknown,” according to the Southwest Coordination Center.

According to the center, two wildfires are currently burning in the state, both in the Gila National Forest. The Cooper Fire burned about 160 acres and was first reported Aug. 27; the Ridge Fire has burned about 4,300 acres and was first reported July 2. Both are 95% contained.