Air Cargo’s Double-Digit Demand Growth Streak Hits 9 Months

Air cargo demand has maintained its steady pace in 2024, coming in at a double-digit growth pace for the ninth consecutive month.

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According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 11.4 percent on an annual basis in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, demand contracted by 0.2 percent month over month.

Through the first eight months of the year, air cargo demand was 13 percent above 2023 levels. Even though the high year-over-year growth rates in 2024 are inflated by an overall weak 2023 market, IATA says, demand is still reaching near-peak levels of late 2021 and early 2022.

For instance, August brought about the second straight month with record year-to-date demand.

International routes helped prop overall demand up, with CTKs rising by 12.4 percent.

In line with the prior four months, the largest contributors to the annual surge in CTKs were carriers from Asia Pacific and Europe, which contributed 43 percent and 25 percent to the global increase, respectively.

The association pointing out that international airlines have benefitted from surging e-commerce demand from consumers in the U.S. and Europe, as well as ongoing capacity limitations in ocean shipping.

The e-commerce demand is expected to linger beyond air freight’s current peak season, as Temu, Shein and Amazon among others continue to flood planes with cargo. In a prior interview with Sourcing Journal, Thomas Kempf, senior director of global air freight at Flexport, said those players have already procured some air cargo capacity into the second half of 2025.

Companies like FedEx , UPS and DHL all even levied their own “demand surcharges” ahead of the anticipated volume surge, with the three acknowledging the strength of air freight being exported out of Asian markets .

Airlines registered in the Asia Pacific market saw the highest annual growth in international CTK, registering 14.8 percent year over year, the IATA said.

As for the ocean capacity limitations assisting in the growth of air bookings, cargo-carrying vessels throughout the late summer cramped up amid a flurry of factors including the ongoing avoidance of the Red Sea, ensuing port congestion and a pulling forward of the peak shipping season. Much of the earlier ordering by shippers has been attributed to concerns of a looming East and Gulf Coast port strike , which ended up lasting three days.

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Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 6.2 percent compared to August 2023, and 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis. International air cargo capacity grew 8.2 percent.

This was largely related to the growth in international belly capacity, which rose 10.9 percent on the strength of passenger markets. Industry-wide capacity has reached an all-time high.

While industry capacity reached a record high, total capacity growth accelerated at the lowest rate since January 2023. Similarly, the latest belly-hold capacity growth statistic was the lowest recorded since the 2021 spring season.

“We continue to see very good news in air cargo markets. The sector recorded a second consecutive month of record high demand year-to-date,” said Willie Walsh, director general of the IATA. “Even with record levels of capacity, yields are up 11.7 percent on 2023, 2 percent on the previous month, and 46 percent above pre-pandemic levels. This strong performance is underpinned by slow but steady growth in global trade, booming e-commerce, and continuing capacity constraints on maritime shipping.”

The increase in global air cargo yield marked the highest in more than two years, the IATA said.

“Even though the rising annual growth rates are partially related to a rapidly decreasing base in 2023, the fact that the average yield is refusing to drop to pre-Covid levels is remarkable, especially given the peak capacity during the summer season,” the association in its monthly market analysis.

The rates are expanding even amid a decline in fuel prices. In August, the global jet fuel price fell by 7.9 percent over the previous month and 24.4 percent year over year closing at $94 per barrel.

The IATA didn’t explicitly identify the port strike as a driver for the sea-to-air shift in August, it again pointed the finger at capacity limitations in ocean shipping and the associated rise in ocean freight rates as contributors to the sea-to-air conversions.

September numbers could reflect a bigger shift in sea-to-air cargo as more shippers made last-minute switches ahead of the strike.

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