Why Mitchell Robinson could be the Knicks' biggest X-factor this season

If the New York Knicks have the type of season they're hoping for, they'll need a strong campaign from Mitchell Robinson.

Robinson won't get nearly as much attention as Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, or Mikal Bridges when it comes to projecting the Knicks' season, but he stands to have nearly as big of an impact. He may just be the Knicks' biggest X-factor this season.

At the moment, Robinson is the best and biggest big man on the roster — the Knicks' best rim protector, rebounder, and lob threat. The Knicks don't have any backups who have proven to have Robinson's impact when he's been healthy.

Robinson is set to reassume the starting center role this season after Isaiah Hartenstein's free agency departure . Hartenstein took over as the starter after Robinson suffered an ankle injury in December and the team never looked back . Hartenstein proved to be a perfect defensive anchor and pick-and-roll partner with Brunson, and he helped elevate the Knicks offense with his passing and floater.

But Hartenstein's breakout and Robinson's injury-hampered season (he played just 31 games) has blurred the impact Robinson can have when healthy.

Robinson was one of the Knicks' best player to start last season. In 21 games before his injury, Robinson averaged 6.2 points on 59% shooting, 10.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, and 1.5 steals. His impact went beyond individual stats: he was dominating the glass, cleaning up the Knicks' misses, and making life difficult for opposing players driving into the paint. He was arguably playing the best defense of his career — fouling less, making himself big in the paint, and deterring drivers in a way that's hard to quantify.

Then he injured his ankle. The Knicks never got a prolonged look at that Robinson for the rest of the year, as he was clearly not 100% upon returning late in the season. He re-injured the same ankle in the playoffs and missed most of the second round.

If Robinson can get back to that level, it will be a huge boost for the Knicks.

The team has changed since Robinson was last the starter — in ways that could make Robinson more impactful. There is now more shooting in the starting lineup. If Robinson is rolling down the lane, defenses cannot help off of Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby the same way they helped off RJ Barrett in past years. The spacing will only improve if Randle and Robinson run a pick-and-roll (Randle has shown better ability at finding Robinson on lobs than Brunson), with Brunson, Bridges, and Anunoby spacing the floor.

Robinson doesn't have Hartenstein's court vision or ball skills, but he has publicly yearned for a bigger offensive role. Robinson won't suddenly gain Hartenstein's offensive skills, but with more reps, this could also be the season where Robinson shows more to his game, whether it's passing out of the pick-and-roll or making quicker decisions when he has the ball at the top of the key.

Robinson's job should also be easier on defense with Bridges and Anunoby in the fold. With those two on the floor, the Knicks should allow fewer drives into the paint, so Robinson should have fewer messes to clean up. With Robinson in a drop and Bridges and Anunoby swarming and getting into passing lanes, it's easy to imagine the Knicks getting their hands on the ball frequently and forcing opponents to bail out of drives.

And then there is a matter of depth. Currently, the Knicks only backup centers are Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims, both of whom are slightly undersized for center and relatively unproven over big stretches. If Robinson were to miss extended time, it will be a major test for the Knicks' backup centers.

The Knicks will surely explore deals for another center during the season, but in the meantime, Robinson's availability will be a huge factor in the Knicks' season.

Robinson has played over 70 games just once in his career. Expecting him to play 70-plus this season would be unrealistic. But if Robinson can play 60 or so games and give the Knicks 20-25 minutes per night at his November/December 2023 level, it will make a massive difference in the Knicks' rim protection and rebounding.

Barring a trade for another big man — and that seems unlikely to happen until midseason — the Knicks just don't have a player who can replicate Robinson's skill set. Take away Robinson, and the Knicks will suddenly have major questions at two of the most important facets of the game.