The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the prowl and ready to pounce in 2024

The Jacksonville Jaguars found out the hard way that the NFL is a “What have you done for me recently” league. Going 9-8 in 2023 was not the same as going 9-8 in 2022, and the big cats of Duval County were left wondering what could have been when Week 18 reached its conclusion.

But hope isn't lost for the Jaguars - far from it. They locked down Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract, immediately looked at what needed fixing, and got to work.

2023 Collapse

The Jaguars looked like a true contender in the AFC throughout the first three months of the season. By the end of November, they were 8-3 and holding the No. 1 seed in the AFC. From Weeks 1-12 , Lawrence was 10th in the NFL in EPA per play (min. 100 dropbacks), was top 10 in passing yards, and PFF graded him as the eighth best quarterback in the league in that span.

And then he got hurt.

Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain against the Cincinnati Bengals - a game the Jaguars lost 34-31. He somehow played the next week in Cleveland against the Browns, but it was clear that the ankle injury was hampering him. He threw three interceptions, and while he kept Jacksonville in the game with three touchdown passes, the Jaguars lost 31-27 and fell to 8-5.

The ankle was far from the only injury Lawrence dealt with in 2023. He suffered a knee bruise in mid-October, a concussion in mid-December, and a sprained AC joint on Christmas Eve. As the health of Lawrence deteriorated, so too did the Jaguars’ hopes of making the playoffs. This was in large part because the Jaguars' success solely relied on Trevor Lawrence being really good. Why? Well, because they were mediocre to bad at nearly every other position.

For starters, the offensive line couldn’t open up any run lanes. The Jaguars were 31st in rushing success rate and 30th in EPA per rush. This made them very one-dimensional offensively, and didn’t bode well for Lawrence. Of all quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2023, Lawrence had the fourth shortest time to throw, per PFF . And from Weeks 14-18 when he was severely injured, Lawrence had the eighth most dropbacks under pressure in the NFL.

Their defense was also a major problem, especially down the stretch. In four of the Jaguars’ final six games, their opponent scored at least 28 points. In addition to that, Jacksonville ranked 26th in dropback success rate on defense from Weeks 13-18.

So, when you put all of those issues together, you get a big ole’ jambalaya of bad football that ends with your team going 1-5 down the stretch and missing the playoffs.

With that in mind, the Jaguars made a lot of changes over the offseason in light of their struggles in order to help them get better on both sides of the ball, become more explosive offensively, and get back to the playoffs.

2024 Outlook

Despite a ton of slander aimed at Trevor Lawrence over the course of the offseason, he was awesome in 2023, especially when it came to launching it deep. When Lawrence was able to set his feet and throw the ball deep, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at doing so.

He had the third most completions in the NFL of 20+ air yards while throwing with planted feet, per Sports Info Solutions . His 25 catchable passes in that category were also third in the league, and he had the fifth most yards despite facing the third most pressures. All the pressure Lawrence faced is why Jacksonville went out and signed Mitch Morse at center to give them an anchor in the middle of the offensive line. Growth from Anton Harrison will hopefully come, as well, as he allowed 27 pressures and five sacks in 2023.

Another problem the passing game faced was drops. Jaguars’ pass-catchers dropped 26 of Lawrence’s passes, which was tied for the third-most in the league in 2023. Jacksonville addressed that by signing Gabe Davis, who had only four drops a season ago with the Buffalo Bills. They also drafted Brian Thomas Jr. who had just five drops on 87 targets in 2023 at LSU.

Not only did the Jaguars bring in guys with good hands, both Davis and Thomas will allow the Jaguars to lean even further into the deep ball. Davis has been one of the league’s top deep threats over the past several years in Buffalo, and is coming off a year in which he averaged just below 17 yards per catch . Thomas averaged over 17 yards per catch in 2023 and had a contested catch rate of 53.8 percent, which was well above the national average. Davis and Thomas will torment defenses downfield, which will allow Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to eat up the underneath and intermediate portions of the field and give the Jaguars' passing game balance, while also making defenses fear them at every level.

On defense, the Jaguars had one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in former Atlanta Falcons’ defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to replace Mike Caldwell. Nielsen got the absolute most out of the Falcons’ defensive unit in 2023, helping them become a top 10 unit in success rate. Atlanta also allowed the fourth fewest yards per play under Nielsen.

These changes are progressive ones, but the Jaguars also weren’t a team far from success in 2023. They were a team that was held back by a lack of run game, an offensive line that didn’t give their quarterback enough time consistently, and a defense that fell apart late in the season.

By leaning into what they already did well on offense and adding pieces to make them even better in that regard, combined with bringing in a superior defensive mind to help tweak what was broken, the Jaguars will be back in the thick of things in the AFC. Because make no mistake about it - Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterbacks in football, and Jacksonville will ride his right arm as far as he can take them. With new-found protection up front, and more reliable weapons brought in to help compliment the ones they already had, this is a team that will be very dynamic and one you won’t want to see across from you on Sunday.

And while all the hoopla in the AFC South is surrounding the Houston Texans after their tremendous season or the Indianapolis Colts, who seem to be the hipster pick to make it to the playoffs in 2024, the Jaguars are likely fine with being overlooked. That just allows them to hide in the weeds and get ready to pounce.