Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has been one of the most dominant pass rushers in the NFL since his arrival to the league. Aside from his rookie season of 2017, in which he only started nine games, Garrett has eclipsed 10 sacks in every season. He has made five Pro Bowls during his career and three All-Pro teams, and is the defending Defensive Player of the Year.
Despite all the accolades, and despite having four straight seasons of at least 12 sacks, the one thing Garrett hasn’t accomplished as a pass rusher is leading the league in sacks. Three of the last four seasons, that title has gone to his AFC North counterpart, Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt. The one season Watt didn’t take the crown, the title went to San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa.
According to NFL.com data analyst Cynthia Frelund , 2024 is the year that Garrett finally comes out on top. Frelund used her statistical models and simulated the season more than 100K times to come up with her predictive leaders in a number of different categories to come up with the top 5 in each category.
When it came to the sack leader for 2024, the numbers were incredibly close, but the Browns’ star pass rusher finally comes out on top. According to Frelund’s predictive model, Garrett leads the way this season with 12 sacks, owing in large part to his incredible ability to win versus double and triple teams. Frelund points out that “according to computer vision, he (Garrett) ranked second in the league in double/triple-team win rate last season, behind only Aaron Donald.”
Behind Garrett, Frelund’s model has Raiders ’ Maxx Crosby, Cowboys ’ Micah Parsons, and Watt all coming in tied for second with 11 sacks, and Bosa rounds out the top 5 with 10. Frelund also adds a caveat that “sack projections always look low because they are calculated fractionally on a per-game basis, then added together”. She then says to pay more attention to the ranking and order, rather than focusing on the actual number itself.
If Garrett were to finish 2024 with 11.5 sacks or more on the season, he would surpass the 100 sack milestone in just his eighth season in the league. That would move Garrett into the top 50 on the official sack leaders list . Currently, Garrett ranks ninth among active players in sacks. Cleveland will need another big season from Garrett if they have any hopes of contending in an improved AFC North.
Local Cleveland, OH
Most Popular
Comments / 0