College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 1

Three matchups between ranked teams highlight the Week 1 college football schedule.

That starts at the top with No. 1 Georgia and No. 14 Clemson in the Aflac game at 12 p.m. on Saturday. The Bulldogs are two-TD favorites against the Tigers in a matchup of teams that combined for four national championships in the last eight seasons.

No. 7 Notre Dame travels to No. 20 Texas A&M at 7:30 p.m. in the best prime-time matchup. Last year, Mike Elko was Riley Leonard's coach at Duke. Now, Elko is the coach for the Aggies, and Leonard is the quarterback for Notre Dame. This will be a tough early season test for the Irish.

On Sunday, No. 13 LSU meets No. 23 USC at 7:30 p.m. ET in Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Which team will show more improvement on defense? That will be the focal point for coaches Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley.

There are 12 matchups between FBS teams in the AP Top 25 in Week 1. A total of 10 ranked teams are playing FCS opponents. Each week, we will pick those matchups against the spread. We were 1-1 S/U and 1-1 ATS in Week 0.

Here are our picks against the spread for conference championship weekend.

MORE: What Florida State's loss means in ACC, CFP races

College football Week 1 picks against the spread

Friday, Aug. 30

• Temple at No. 16 Oklahoma (-42.5)  (7 p.m., ESPN)

The Sooners are entering their SEC era with new quarterback Jackson Arnold, and that is a giant spread to start the season with. Oklahoma is 6-0 S/U in non-conference regular-season games under Brent Venables, and they have won those games by an average of 39.3 points per game. Temple has rolled out three straight 3-9 seasons, and they are 3-12 ATS as a road underdog the last three seasons.

Pick: Oklahoma wins 48-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread

Saturday, Aug. 31

• No. 1 Georgia (-13.5) vs. No. 14 Clemson (12 p.m., ABC)

That's a huge spread considering the Bulldogs beat the Tigers 10-3 in their last meeting on Sept. 4, 2021. Georgia could easily blow this game open if Carson Beck is comfortable early, and Clemson did lose its opener 28-7 last season. This line has dropped a half-point at a few books, which seems to indicate Clemson could hang around into the second half. This game is more of a referendum on Dabo Swinney than Kirby Smart, and it should play out that way.

Pick: Georgia wins 27-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

MORE: Sporting News 2024 preseason All-America team

• No. 8 Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia (12 p.m., Fox)

This is one of the trickiest games of the weekend. On one hand, the Mountaineers closed last season on a heater, Garrett Greene is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the FBS, and Milan Puskar Stadium will be rocking with a crowd looking for its first victory against the Nittany Lions since 1989. Still, Penn State won this game 38-15 last season, Drew Allar should be able to have success with a strong running game behind him and James Franklin-coached teams are mystics when it comes to the late cover.

Pick: Penn State wins 31-20 and COVERS the spread.

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• Akron at No. 3 Ohio State (-50.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Can we outlaw these games? Ohio State is more than a seven-TD favorite against the Zips, and with good reason. Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have outscored three Mid-American Conference opponents by a combined score of 212-33. That includes a 59-7 victory against Akron on Sept. 25, 2021. Four of the Zips' first five games are on the road. Can they score a touchdown in this game?

Pick: Ohio State wins 56-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

• No. 19 Miami (-2.5) at Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Florida won the last meeting 24-20 in 2019, and Miami has played twice at The Swamp this century – with a 1-1 record. The Hurricanes are the slight favorite with a backfield that features Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward and Oregon State transfer running back Damien Martinez. The Gators are in a pivotal season with Billy Napier, and quarterback Graham Mertz played well the back half of last season. This could be the best game of the day. Remember when Florida beat Utah in the 2022 opener at The Swamp? Same situation here.

Pick: Florida wins 30-27 in an UPSET.

• Colorado State at No. 4 Texas (-32.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

The Longhorns have injuries at running back, but Quinn Ewers returns and the defense should be solid in Steve Sarkisian's fourth season. Texas failed to cover 30-plus point lines against Wyoming and Rice last season, and the Rams were 3-1 ATS as a road underdog last season. Those trends favor Colorado State, but we still have a feeling the Longhorns will bring their A-game ahead of the Week 2 showdown at Michigan.

Pick: Texas wins 49-14 and COVERS the spread.

• Western Kentucky at No. 5 Alabama (-31.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)

The Kalen DeBoer reign is here, and Alabama is a heavy favorite against the Hilltoppers, and the line has dropped a point. The Crimson Tide won the three previous meetings by an average of 32.3 points per game, and that drop makes it easier to see Alabama roll in the opener. Look at Washington's non-conference scores from last season. If DeBoer can pour it on, he will.

Pick: Alabama wins 42-9 and COVERS the spread.

• No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (-3) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

The Irish are in a tough spot here against the Aggies. Third-year coach Marcus Freeman is 7-4 against ranked opponents with a 2-3 record on the road. Mike Elko is making his debut with Texas A&M, and the quarterback matchup between Conner Weigman and Riley Leonard should be fun. What will be the difference? Defense travels, and the Irish are stacked on that side of the ball. That should be enough to overcome what will be a tough game at hot Kyle Field, if the Irish do not turn the ball over.

Pick: Notre Dame wins 27-19 in an UPSET.

• Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan (-21.5) (7:30 p.m, NBC)

The Bulldogs might perk up as a trendy upset pick this week, and the first-half line could be close. They were a nine-win team that upset Purdue last season, and interim coach Tim Skipper has an experienced defensive coordinator in Kevin Coyle that will challenge first-time QB starter Alex Orji. Michigan still has a nasty defense, too, however, and the Sherrone Moore era will start off in style heading into the Week 2 showdown with Texas. Donovan Edwards puts the game away with two TDs in the second half. That hook makes it a little easier to take Fresno State against the spread.

Pick: Michigan wins 35-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

• New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona (-31.5) (10:30 p.m., ESPN)

This line has ticked down on a few books, and the Lobos were 5-4 ATS as an underdog last season. Given Arizona is in a coaching transition with Brent Brennan, the chance for a late-night cover is possible. Still, we trust Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan to connect for at least two TDs and for the Wildcats to roll in the second half. The Wildcats were 11-2 ATS last season. Will that be as charming as a heavy favorite?

Pick: Arizona wins 42-10 and COVERS the spread.

Sunday, Sept. 1

• No. 13 LSU (-4.5) vs. No. 23 USC (7:30 p.m., ABC)

It's a battle of beleaguered defenses, and LSU is trying to avoid a loss in the season opener for the fifth straight season. The Trojans are closer to home here, and Lincoln Riley can prove the hire of defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn right here. This is the Trojans' first matchup against an SEC opponent since the 52-6 loss to Alabama at Jerry World on Sept. 3, 2016 – a game now best-known for USC's ill-fated entrance to the field . Garrett Nussmeier delivers in the clutch for the Tigers in a back-and-forth thriller that Brian Kelly is now accustomed to.

Pick: LSU wins 35-28 and COVERS the spread.

Monday, Sept. 2

• Boston College at No. 10 Florida State (-17) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

Florida State is coming off a shocking Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech , and Boston College is pressing reset with first-year coach Bill O'Brien. The Seminoles should have more down-field opportunities with DJ Uiagalelei in this game, especially if Hykeem Williams returns. This spread looks high considering the Eagles lost 31-29 last season in a game where quarterback Thomas Castellanos had 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards. The Eagles will try to copy-cat Georgia Tech, but the Seminoles will pull away in the fourth quarter.

Pick: Florida State wins 34-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.