Unless they get hotter than the sun the rest of the way, the Chicago Cubs aren't going to make the playoffs. But at least one of their players still has a lot to play for.
Entering play Thursday, the Cubs sit 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, with just 28 games still to play. They have largely been a disappointment this season, especially after their hot 17-9 start. And there's plenty of blame to go around.
While the Cubs' offense has lots of useful players, no one has truly stepped up and carried the load, leaving Chicago around league-average in most team hitting stats. One of the players the Cubs likely expected to be better, perhaps even a true superstar, has a tough decision upcoming.
Former National League Most Valuable Player Cody Bellinger, who re-signed with the Cubs on a three-year deal last winter, has the option to nullify the rest of his contract and pursue free agency. And based on his performance this season, it's looking like a difficult choice.
One Major League Baseball insider believes Bellinger's choice could come down to the final four weeks of the season, making him one of the impeding free agents with the most to play for down the stretch.
Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com listed eight potential free agents "who need strong finishes" on Thursday, including Bellinger among those with the most to gain or lose.
"With the way (Bellinger) has performed this season, his opt-out decision could go either way," Harrigan said. "The 29-year-old has produced a .269/.328/.423 slash with 13 homers, eight steals and 1.5 fWAR, down from .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals and 4.4 fWAR a year ago."
Bellinger is one of the most difficult free agents to evaluate when determining the value of his play for contract purposes. His career got off to a blazing start with the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a 2019 MVP award as the high point, and it looked as though he was a slam-dunk superstar.
But from 2020-2022, Bellinger spiraled downhill, to the point that he had to take a one-year "prove it" deal from the Cubs in 2023. He rebounded and became an All-Star, though he wasn't quite in the MVP discussion, but has now regressed slightly in 2024.
This season, Bellinger is making $30 million, and has a .745 OPS/108 OPS+. That's not quite performing to the value of his deal, but it's also not bad, and it might be enough for a team to take a chance on signing him long-term based on his other accolades.
While the Cubs' playoff hopes may be in vain, Bellinger's hopes to cash out could swing either way with every result. And whether he sinks or swims, the Cubs also have to start thinking about whether they want to take a shot at re-signing him for a third winter in a row.
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