Will neutral-site openers like Georgia-Clemson, LSU-USC keep value in 12-team CFP era?

Two schools that combined for four national championships in the last 10 years meet in Week 1.

No. 1 Georgia and No. 14 Clemson face off in a neutral-site opener at the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. In the BCS and four-team College Football Playoff, these matchups were early-season essentials.

Will they have the same value in the 12-team CFP era?

"That is the question that we will answer the most at the end of the year based on the CFP selection committee and how they react and how they vote," Peach Bowl CEO Gary Stokan told Sporting News. "In the four-team playoff what we learned is that scheduling non-conference tough games was important to get in."

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Why neutral-site openers still have value in 12-team CFP era

There are five matchups between ranked teams in the first two weeks of the season, and three of those games are on neutral sites. In addition to Georgia-Clemson, No. 13 LSU plays No. 23 USC at Allegiant Stadium in the Vegas Kickoff Classic on Sunday. In Week 2, No. 15 Tennessee takes on No. 24 NC State at Bank Of America Stadium in Charlotte.

No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M in Week 1. A top-10 matchup between No. 9 Texas and No. 4 Michigan is the highlight of Week 2.

Stokan recalled a conversation with former ESPN president John Skipper at the then-Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in 2008 – when No. 24 Alabama beat No. 9 Clemson 34-10. That game launched the Nick Saban dynasty, but it also helped popularize neutral-site shadows in the CFP era. Stokan credits No. 1 Alabama’s 24-7 victory against No. 3 Florida State in the 2017 opener as the playoff separator.

"Alabama wins that game, but they didn't win the SEC," Stokan said. "In a four-team playoff, the selection committee looked at the schedule and because they beat Florida State they put them in at No. 4 and they wound up winning the national championship."

Will the coaches have the same incentive in these neutral-site openers in the future? USC was criticized for reportedly trying to back out of the LSU opener. The Trojans now have a nine-game Big Ten schedule and a rivalry matchup with Notre Dame.

"If the playoff stays the way, that is right now, I think you will see less and less of those, especially with us and the SEC," USC coach Lincoln Riley said at Big Ten Media Days. "Just because our schedule is already going to be so good you're going to be like all right, 'Is the juice worth the squeeze?' in terms of playing these games. As competitors, we all want to play these games."

Stokan believes these non-conference games will have a different impact in the 12-team College Football Playoff era – and will be more talked about in terms of bubble teams instead of conference champions.

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"When you get to teams 9, 10, 11 and 12, this type of game is going to be crucial," Stokan said.  "I still think it will carry the weight that it has in the past with the four-team playoff and maybe even more – I think you are going to have more teams in that 9-10-11-12 area where the decisions are going to be made by the committee, and it's going to be a tougher decision because you may have four 10-2 teams or four 9-3 teams. How are you going to differentiate them?"

Stokan also said the ACC and the Big 12 might need these matchups more than the Big Ten and SEC for the next several years. No. 19 Miami plays Florida, and West Virginia hosts No. 8 Penn State in Week 1.

"If you look back at the Media Days, the (ACC)  promoted the fact that they had the toughest non-conference schedule of any conference," Stokan said. "Now, you can debate that they need to do that because they don't have as many teams that the Big Ten and SEC have that are highly ranked."

Will future SEC, Big Ten non-conference stay on schedule

No. 4 Texas takes on No. 9 Michigan in Week 2. No. 5 Alabama travels to Wisconsin in Week 3. These Big Ten-SEC matchups are fun for the September calendar, but in a sense they could be playoff matchups later.

Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell is hopeful the realignment and 12-team College Football Playoff honor that marquee game in the non-conference schedule.

"I do believe the 12-team playoff where we're headed with our league and the SEC is that it's advantageous for you to continue to schedule games like this," Fickell said. "I know you have an incredibly tough nine-game league schedule, but how else do you measure yourself?"

The question now is whether schools keep those scheduled home-and-home games in the future. Auburn and Georgia canceled home-and-home matchups with UCLA.

Ohio State has a home-and-home with Texas in 2025 and 2026 and a home-and-home with Alabama in 2027 and 2028. Michigan plays Oklahoma in 2025 and 2026 and a return game with Texas in 2027. Keep an eye on those games in the near future.

"The difficulty in the future of these games is, 'What does the SEC do in 2026 with its conference schedule?'" Stokan asked before a hypothetical answer. "If they decide to play nine conference games and ESPN is willing to step up and right the check, then it is going to be very difficult to schedule these games."

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The future of neutral-site non-conference games

In the short term, the neutral-site openers will stick. In 2025, the AFLAC Kickoff Game is a two-day event with Tennessee playing Syracuse on Aug. 30 and South Carolina taking on Virginia Tech on Aug. 31. Miami plays Utah in the Vegas Kickoff Classic in 2027. There still is value in the neutral-site opener.

Iowa State and Kansas State will play in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Ireland next season – a conference twist on the neutral-site opener. Georgia Tech beat Florida State 24-21 in Week 0 this season.

These neutral site openers are fun, to say the least.

"We don't want to go back to the days of playing directional schools and it is 35-0 at halftime because when we started this in 2008, that was the case," Stokan said.

Fickell believes the non-conference matchups will still have that benefit of the doubt factor with the playoff committee for those willing to play in those games.

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"If there is not a big consequence if things do not go well, like it's always been in college football in one of those first three games, if it's not as big a consequence then the benefit far outweighs it,” Fickell said.

Riley said part of the issue was the schedules were made in advance of the seismic changes in college football the last few seasons. He wonders whether these games will increase in value if the playoff expands or the format is changed – which could happen after the next two seasons.

"Now, if and when the playoff shifts again –  if something would happen where there were even  more guaranteed spots in some of these conferences and all of that then it would lend itself to games like this being back," Riley said. "That would be good for the game, because games like this are awesome.”

Stokan – who is preparing for that blockbuster matchup between Georgia and Clemson – is hoping to keep it that way.

"It is going to be really interesting what the tell-tale signs are in this first year, and it might take two years before we get to the new CFP contracts to see what shakes out when it comes to scheduling," Stokan said.