Las Vegas Raiders 2024 record predictions from NFL analysts

The Las Vegas Raiders are a tough team to predict ahead of their first full season with head coach Antonio Pierce at the helm.

Coming off a season in which the Raiders finished 8-9 and had a strong run after Pierce took over as the interim head coach, Las Vegas sports a talented defense that could be elite and an offense that has weapons but a question mark at quarterback.

The Raiders are going to be competitive no matter what because of their defense, but how far they go will be determined by what they get out of their quarterback, which will be Gardner Minshew to begin the season.

Let's find out what experts think.

Las Vegas Raiders record predictions

The Athletic: 7.3 wins

The quarterback selection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t move the needle much, so it’s no surprise that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, just clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The defense should be very good, Davante Adams is still one of the best offensive players in the league, and first-round pick Brock Bowers should have a big impact at tight end. Problems could arise if there are any injuries, as the Raiders are not deep and new general manager Tom Telesco is taking the long view with salary-cap space. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start, Adams might call for a trade, so … 7.3 sounds good, but there is some shaky ground. — Vic Tafur

Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated: 6-11

I love Antonio Pierce rolling up on Jim Harbaugh in the opener and stealing a victory with Gardner Minshew II. That is absolutely a season-highlight. While I don’t think the Raiders will be awesome, and the absolute best-case scenario may end up being for them to get bad enough to land a quarterback atop the draft for next year, I am leaning on my new motto for 2024: no tanking. Pierce knows this may be his only crack at a head coaching job. He’s not going to expect Mark Davis and Tom Brady to steer his ship through a handful of learning years. Weeks 6 to 9 and Weeks 11 to 14 are particularly perilous for Las Vegas, the former of which will see the Raiders take on Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in the span of three weeks (two of which are on the road). The Week 11 to 14 slate includes three of four games on the road, plus another against a division rival. These long pockets and relative uncertainty at the QB position will make it difficult for the team to find its stride.

Will Brinson, CBS Sports: 6-11

Tough team to figure out in Las Vegas. I think I may be selling the Raiders short because of their overall roster, but I also have major questions about the quarterback and the issues they're going to face in the division. Is Gardner Minshew really the answer in free agency? I love the Brock Bowers pick, but it also feels a bit redundant with Michael Mayer in the fold, even though there was a new regime in town. Antonio Pierce did an awesome job with this team down the stretch last year, but interim coaches don't often pan out in full-time roles. If the Raiders defense is as opportunistic as it was last year and the run game can be dominant, this team can easily outpace my projection and the Vegas win total. The schedule just has some really tough stretches as a result of playing in the AFC West.

Dakota Zientek, Pro Football Network: 9-8

In the least surprising portion of this simulation, Kansas City wins the AFC West title once again. For as long as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have each other, this is the likely reality.

The Las Vegas Raiders see their first winning season since 2021, as Gardner Minshew II leads L.V. back to the postseason.

Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh bring their squads to an identical 7-10 record as Los Angeles improves and Denver gets worse.

Dan Pizzuta, The 33rd Team: Under 6.5 wins

While playing around with a few season simulators to get an idea of team records, I came out with the Las Vegas Raiders finishing 7-10 a few times. That would indicate the over, but it also always felt like the ceiling for this team.

The defense could be a lot of fun with a dominant defensive line and aggressive secondary, but an offense led by Gardner Minshew feels underwhelming.

Minshew's 39.4 percent success rate last season ranked 29th among quarterbacks. There was enough schematically to make that work in Indianapolis, but Luke Getsy doesn’t get that same level of trust.

Nate Davis, USA TODAY: 4-13