The NFL’s preseason is over. Roster cutdown day has come and gone. Teams have mostly solidified their rosters and now, all we have to do is wait. The regular season kicks off next week, and with it comes one final win/loss projection from The Athletic and their statistical analysis department.
Staff writer and data analyst Austin Mock ran 10,000 simulations of the 2024 NFL season to come up with win/loss projections for every team. It should come as no surprise that the San Francisco 49ers come in as the top overall team, with a projected 11.4 wins. It may not surprise many that the Washington Commanders come in last in Mock’s simulations, with just 5.9 wins.
What may surprise some – at least some diehard Dolphins fans – is what the simulation spit out for the Dolphins and their win total on the season. Right now, most Vegas oddsmakers have the over/under for the Dolphins sitting at 9.5 wins, and that’s the exact total that Mock’s simulations spit out. That’s not the surprising part. What is, is that those 9.5 wins are only the third-highest total in the AFC East, beating out only the New England Patriots .
Unsurprisingly the simulation has the Buffalo Bills coming out on top of the AFC East. Josh Allen and company have had a veritable stranglehold on the division since Tom Brady left and the Patriots dynasty crumbled. The simulations called for the Bills to win 9.7 games this season, putting them behind the Kansas City Chiefs , Baltimore Ravens , and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC.
Just behind the Bills in the projection is not the Dolphins, but instead the New York Jets , coming in just slightly behind the Bills with a projected win total of 9.6. The Jets have been a trendy team since the arrival of former MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers . Rodgers missed effectively the entire season last year with a torn Achilles tendon, but he’s back and healthy for a second chance at his first season with the Jets.
While on paper it may seem like the Dolphins have the better offense, the Jets aren’t far behind with the likes of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Where the two teams may separate is on defense, where the Jets likely have a clear advantage. The Jets added a key piece to an already strong defense with the acquisition of Haason Reddick -- assuming the two sides come together on a contract extension and Reddick ends his holdout. On the flip side, the Dolphins lost a key piece to a less strong defense with Christian Wilkins leaving in free agency for the Las Vegas Raiders .
Not much separates these three teams, either on paper or in the simulations. It should be a fun season to watch play out.
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