The Dallas Cowboys always have massive expectations every season, even if they might be unwarranted. The team has gone 12-5 in three consecutive campaigns, but it now has extended its drought of not advancing to the NFC championship game to 28 years.
The Cowboys are still stuck on 1995 as the season they last won the conference title and the Super Bowl. Their recent past and longer history suggest this will be another season of disappointment under Mike McCarthy. Now, consider they don't have the makeup for making the playoffs again, period.
Here's looking at why Dallas not dancing into the NFC playoffs in January and February is a real probability in 2024.
1. The Cowboys didn't have an inspiring offseason in relation to other NFC teams
The Cowboys have big changes at running back and the offensive line around Dak Prescott and couldn't do anything to upgrade his receiving corps. Defensively, they lost a few pieces, but the biggest blow is losing game-changing cornerback DaRon Bland for up to half a season with a fractured foot.
Meanwhile, the Eagles, 49ers, and Lions had some salary-cap room and draft capital to make interesting moves to either take care of their own players or change up personnel where needed. The Packers, who beat the Cowboys in the wild-card playoff round, remain on the upswing. The Rams and Buccaneers will also be challenged to return to the playoffs with intriguing upstarts such as the Bears, Falcons, and Commanders rising in the NFC. The Cowboys, worried about paying CeeDee Lamb (done), Prescott, and Micah Parsons, were a bit handcuffed and pushed more into rebuilding than reloading.
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2. The Cowboys likely will miss Dan Quinn more than any of their players
The Cowboys were a mess defensively under McCarthy in 2021, but with Quinn replacing Mike Nolan, they finished seventh, fifth, and fifth, respectively, in scoring defense the past three seasons. They finished No. 5 in total defense last year, with just fewer than 300 yards allowed on average over 17 games.
Quinn's influence also helped the Cowboys lead the league in takeaways in both 2021 and '22 before dropping a bit to 13th last season. Dallas had some very good talent across the board, but Quinn helped them maximize it, parlaying that into a return to head coaching with the NFC East rival Commanders. Now it doesn't have Quinn calling the plays, and there's no Bland to lead the big plays in the secondary. The Cowboys are bound to have a defensive dropoff that can cost them.
3. The Cowboys are once again putting too much pressure on Dak Prescott
Going from Kellen Moore to McCarthy calling offensive plays caused a significant shift. The Cowboys threw the ball only 52.7 percent of the time in 2022, but that jumped up to 59.3 percent in 2023. They fell from the No. 9 rushing to the No. 14 rushing offense. They also were tied for 20th in yards per attempt (4.1) last season.
Prescott was sacked 39 times at a 6.2-percent rate on dropbacks, the second-worst such season in his career after he was sacked 58 times at a 9.6-percent rate in 2018. He was No. 8 with 46 knockdowns, and he also had a career-high 629 dropbacks, or an average of 37 per game.
The Cowboys' running game minus Tony Pollard — led by a returning Ezekiel Elliott with long-time backup Rico Dowdle still behind him — doesn't seem like it will get much better to support Prescott. He'll need to carry the offense a lot with Lamb, tight end Jake Ferguson, and others. Prescott had a strong regular season going pass-happy, but he succumbed to pressure too often in the Packers game, leading to four sacks and two INTs in a decisive lopsided 48-32 loss.
Prescott has risen to the one-dimensional occasion with big passing, but his best career team results come when he can operate in a balanced attack.
4. The Cowboys are overdue for a rough post-playoff hangover
The Cowboys have been sent packing by the 49ers (twice) and the Packers in three consecutive playoff games. Prescott is 2-5 in the playoffs, marring his raised play from the regular season. He also has battled injuries and a few schematic and personnel transitions.
Credit McCarthy, Prescott, and the Cowboys for showing resilience and getting back to those 12 wins. There's no doubt that kind of disappointment can take its cumulative toll. McCarthy is feeling Super Bowl-or-bust everywhere. Prescott won't get the universal respect of which he's worthy as a top passer until he can lead a playoff breakthrough to the championship game.
The Cowboys' offseason was rough and that recent history is brutal. That confirms the Eagles are division favorites, and it adds up to the opening of the door for some sleeper wild-card teams in the NFC behind them.
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