Is Notre Dame out of the College Football Playoff after a shocking 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois?
Talk about the most unexpected question possible after Week 2. After all, we penciled Notre Dame into the College Football Playoff after a 23-13 victory at Texas A&M in Week 1. The Irish already cannot earn a first-round bye in the 12-team College Football Playoff because they don’t play in a conference and there is not much prime-cut meat left on the schedule.
Now, Notre Dame needs the rest of its schedule to work in its favor.
That means the four ACC teams – Louisville, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Virginia – have to do their part. Louisville and Virginia are unbeaten, and the Cardinals will be the only ranked team in Week 3 because the Yellow Jackets lost 31-28 to Syracuse. Florida State is 0-2. Notre Dame fans might wish it was Miami or Clemson on the schedule by the end of the year.
USC needs to be a main event at The Coliseum in the regular-season finale, and that is no guarantee. After that, there just is not enough that will impress the College Football Playoff committee in December.
Ultimately, it might come down to the loss itself. Can Notre Dame overcome a loss to a Mid-American Conference team and finish 11-1? That loss might be too much of an eye-sore to ignore. A two-loss SEC or Big Ten team might get the nod instead, and that will only add more credence to the debate the Irish might want to think about joining the Power 4 in the future.
That loss was felt in our College Football Playoff Bracketology for Week 3, where a fifth SEC team moved in and the defending national champions were bumped out.
Moved in: Tennessee, USC
Dropped out: Michigan, Notre Dame
MORE: Michigan, Sherrone Moore get reality check
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Georgia (2-0, SEC champion)
The Bulldogs routed Tennessee Tech 48-3 in Week 2. Carson Beck (18 of 25, 242 yards, 5 TDs) was efficient, Trevor Etienne (92 total yards) made his debut after a one-game suspension, and the Bulldogs have yet to allow a TD through two games. The SEC schedule begins at Kentucky in Week 3, a team UGA hasn't lost to since 2009.
No. 2 Ohio State (2-0, Big Ten champion)
Like Georgia, the Buckeyes have not allowed a TD through two games. Ohio State blanked Western Michigan 56-0, and the Broncos managed just 99 total yards. Will Howard (18 of 26, 292 yards, TD) kept a strong connection with Jeremiah Smith (5-119, TD). Quinshon Judkins (9-108, 2 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (10-66, 2 TDs) powered the running game with new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. The Buckeyes remain the best bet in the Big Ten.
No. 3 Utah (2-0, Big 12 champion)
The Big 12 remains wide open. Oklahoma State needed double overtime to beat Arkansas 39-31, and Kansas State escaped Tulane 34-27. The Utes beat Baylor 23-12, but Cam Rising suffered a hand injury and missed the second half. Rising’s status will need to be monitored ahead of a Week 3 matchup against Utah State, but Utah remains our pick in the Big 12.
No. 4 Miami, Fla. (2-0, ACC champion)
The ACC might not be so wide open if Miami continues to act like this. The Hurricanes beat Florida A&M 56-9, and Cam Ward had 304 passing yards and three TDs. Damien Martinez added 91 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Clemson has our attention after a 66-20 blowout against Appalachian State, but the Hurricanes have the easier schedule. A top-10 ranking in the polls should follow.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 3 of the college football season:
No. 12 Memphis (2-0, American champion) at No. 5 Texas (2-0, SEC at-large)
Texas dominated Michigan 31-12 and would be the consensus first at-large berth given they have allowed just one offensive touchdown through two games. The Longhorns balanced offense would be hard to stop in this matchup, especially with Quinn Ewers at the controls. The Tigers handled their business in a 38-17 victory against Troy ahead of their best non-conference showcase against Florida State in Week 3. Seth Henigan hasn’t thrown an interception through two games. Still, Northern Illinois and Boise State will be in the mix for that Group of 5 bid.
No. 11 USC (2-0, Big Ten at-large) at No. 6 Alabama (2-0, SEC-at large)
Much has changed since Alabama beat USC 52-6 in the season opener on Sept. 3, 2016. Alabama shook off South Florida with a 28-point fourth quarter in a 42-16 victory that at least left a few questions considering how long it took. Kalen DeBoer continues to get efficient play out of Jalen Milroe. Alabama plays at Wisconsin in Week 3. USC cruised to a 48-0 victory against Utah State, and Miller Moss passed for 229 yards. Woody Marks rushed for 103 yards, and the Trojans flexed their defense against the Aggies. Lincoln Riley might have a sleeper team in the Big Ten race, and the Trojans have a bye week to prepare for their new conference opener at Michigan. USC is trending upward.
No. 9 Tennessee (2-0, SEC at-large) at No. 8 Oregon (2-0, Big Ten at-large)
Would this be the most-compelling first-round matchup? The Vols are the fifth SEC team – and we feel comfortable with that after a 51-10 blowout against NC State. Nico Iamaleava had 276 total yards and three TDs, though he did throw two interceptions. Oregon won a thrilling back-and-forth shootout 37-34 against Boise State despite two turnovers and 74 penalty yards. Dillon Gabriel passed for 243 yards, and the Ducks weathered a 192-yard, three-TD performance from Ashton Jeanty. Oregon remains our Big Ten runner up, which maintains their first-round home game.
MORE: Oregon survives upset bid from Boise State
No. 10 Penn State (2-0, Big Ten at-large) at No. 7 Ole Miss (2-0, SEC at-large)
A Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl rematch with real implications between Lane Kiffin and James Franklin. Penn State remains our fourth Big Ten team. The Nittany Lions had to shake off Bowling Green in a 34-27 game that was closer than it should have been. Drew Allar wasn't quite as dynamic, but Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen both topped 100 yards. Look for a more focused team to take on Kent State in Week 3. Ole Miss can run, too. Henry Parrish Jr. rushed for 156 yards and four TDs in a 52-3 blowout against Middle Tennessee. Jaxon Dart (25 of 27, 377 yards, TD) continues to play at a high-efficiency level.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Missouri (2-0, SEC)
The Tigers have outscored Murray State and Buffalo 89-0 the last two weeks – and the 38-0 shutout against the Bulls in Week 2 featured a breakout game from Theo Wease (13 catches, 149 yards). Missouri will get its first test in Week 3 against Boston College. The weak non-conference schedule leaves little room for error, but the Tigers are our first team out.
Oklahoma State (2-0, Big 12)
The Cowboys allowed 648 yards against Arkansas but still managed to pull out a 39-31 double-overtime victory. Oklahoma State has pulled through two trendy upsets the last two weeks and faces a road trip to Tulsa before the Big 12 schedule ramps up.
MORE: Recapping Okie State's wild win over Arkansas
Kansas State (2-0, Big 12)
The Wildcats escaped a tricky road test at Tulane with a 34-27 victory, and we are giving them a slight advantage over Oklahoma State, which beat Arkansas 39-31 in double overtime. The Wildcats were 2 of 10 on third down and allowed 491 total yards – both areas of concerns heading into a Friday night matchup against Arizona.
Oklahoma (2-0, SEC)
The Sooners survived an upset bid in a 16-12 victory against Houston – and the main area of concern is a rushing attack that averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. Jackson Arnold (19 of 32, 174 yards, 2 TDs, INT) is still evolving. The defense allowed 1.7 yards per carry and has forced seven turnovers in two games.
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