The Buffalo Bills open up the 2024 NFL season at home vs the Arizona Cardinals. In order to find success in week 1, the Bills defense must limit the Cardinals run game out of 12 and 13 personnel packages.
When quarterback Kyler Murray returned in week 10 last season, the Cardinals offense started to take off. But not necessarily in the way people may have expected.
Once Murray returned, the Cardinals leaned into heavier personnel packages and began mashing teams with their run game. Per Sports Info Solutions, from week 10 through week 18 in 2023 the Cardinals had a 13 personnel usage rate of 11% (1st in the league) and a 12 personnel usage rate of 24% (9th).
When running from 13 personnel, they were 9th in EPA per attempt on all carries, and 7th in EPA per attempt for running back carries only. When running out of 12 personnel, they were tied for 1st in EPA per attempt on all carries and 4th in EPA per attempt for running back carries only. Add in the extremely overlooked season James Conner had , and you have a formidable run game out of personnel groupings that can give the Bills (or any defense) problems.
Success for the Cardinals on the ground from 12 and 13 personnel may force the Bills hand in walking a safety down into the box (leaving first round wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in more 1-on-1 situations outside and limiting coverage structures) and/or having to sub out All-Pro slot cornerback Taron Johnson in favor of another linebacker, further testing their depth there.
The Bills are already missing starting linebacker Matt Milano, and will be starting inexperienced 2nd year linebacker Dorian Williams in his place. Bringing another linebacker on to play alongside Williams and Terrel Bernard means going further down the depth chart there, and having a potentially less skilled player on the field in order to potentially better match body types and/or size. Which isn't ideal.
Also factoring into the mix, is the Cardinals play action and standard passing game from 12 personnel. In that same week 10 to week 18 time frame in 2023, the Cardinals were 7th in play action EPA out of 12 personnel and 2nd in positive play percentage at 65.2%. On all passes from 12 personnel, they were 5th in EPA and 8th in positive play percentage at 54.2%.
Tight end Trey McBride is an emerging star at the position and gives the Cardinals offense a weapon as both a pass catcher and run blocker. What he lacks in refinement and technique, he makes up for by playing at 100 mph. Which is dangerous when paired with his athleticism, size, and strength. Behind him are Elijah Higgins and Tip Reiman. Higgins is a former WR who is more pass catcher than blocker, and Tip Reiman is a monster . All three players combine to form a useful group in the run and pass led by the standout McBride.
Slowing down the Cardinals run game, especially from their 12 and 13 personnel packages, will be paramount for the Bills defense in week 1. Failure to do so could open them up to potential mismatches, coverage limitations, and vulnerabilities vs the pass. If the run game gets going, the play action pass becomes more lethal. As does the RPO and bootleg game with Kyler Murray. It’s a critical element to this game on that side of the ball that will be the start of a chain reaction one way or another.
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