College Football Playoff fact or fiction: Notre Dame out? USC in? Five SEC teams in the bracket?

The 12-team College Football Playoff exists in a whole new world.

What is the cost of a September loss? What is the benefit of a September surge? Through two weeks perhaps no team embodies that more than No. 18 Notre Dame.

The Irish beat Texas A&M 23-13 in Week 1 at Kyle Field, and we penciled them into the 12-team field. Then, Notre Dame became the first top-five team to lose to a Mid-American Conference school in a 16-14 stunner against Northern Illinois. Should we get the eraser out?

The first official projected College Football Playoff field will not be unveiled until Nov. 5, but we're fact-checking some of those questions heading into Week 3 of the college football season.

MORE: Against the spread picks for Week 3 Top 25 games

Fact or fiction? Notre Dame is out of the College Football Playoff

Fiction. This is fiction, but it is part of the stranger-than-fiction world we live in with the 12-team College Football playoff.  In what universe does a Notre Dame team that lost to a MAC school get in the playoff?

The one we live in now. Notre Dame can’t lose again. That much is true. The Irish likely lost any opportunity for a first-round playoff game on campus, too. In the BCS or four-team era, a loss like this would have been the season-killer.

They need everyone else on their schedule to do well. The Irish have five unbeaten teams left on their schedule including Purdue, who is coming off a bye week. No. 19 Louisville, Navy, Virginia and Army won’t move the needle much, but a prime-time showdown against No. 10 USC in the finale might, especially if the Trojans have one loss or less. That could be the ultimate elimination game for the Irish, because a two-loss team would not stand in the scramble with Big Ten and SEC teams for those last few bids.

MORE: Projected CFP field entering Week 3

Fact or fiction: USC and Oregon will both make the CFP

Fact. This will be good for the health of the new-look, 18-team Big Ten conference to get two West Coast schools in that first CFP. The twist? We are more confident in the Trojans after two weeks than the Ducks, which is the real development considering the preseason pecking order.

Oregon is 2-0 heading into a rivalry matchup against Oregon State, and the Ducks need to figure out the running game – which averages 3.0 yards per carry – and the protection – Dillon Gabriel has taken seven sacks in two games. Oregon has not quite looked the part of a national championship contender, but they'll get to prove it against Ohio State (Oct. 12) and Michigan (Nov. 2).

USC has looked better so far. Miller Moss has a 72.7% completion percentage – and that is the key to Lincoln Riley's offense. The defensive has improved, and USC has a bye week to get ready for Michigan on Sept. 21. After that trip to the Big House, Penn State (Oct. 12), Nebraska (Nov. 16) and Notre Dame (Nov. 30) all come to The Coliseum. With that LSU win in hand, the Trojans will get in with a record of 10-2 or better.

As of today, we have Ohio State, Oregon, USC and Penn State in the College Football Playoff. We think that will hold up, too.

Fact or fiction? Five SEC teams will make the CFP

Fiction. It is fiction, but it is not going to stop the narrative. Six SEC teams are in the top seven in the AP Poll -- No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Texas, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 Missouri. The SEC has the best QB play in college football right now, and the Bulldogs, Longhorns and Volunteers beat No. 22 Clemson, No. 17 Michigan and NC State (then-ranked No. 24) by an average total of 30.3 points per game.

Missouri plays No. 24 Boston College, and the Crimson Tide travel to unranked Wisconsin in Week 3. Yes, the SEC has the best teams now, but conference play has not started yet, and there will be attrition among those six teams. Those six schools have six games against each other, and you could argue these are the six best games on the national schedule.

There will be losses, however, and the pressure is on Missouri and Ole Miss to win those games because of their weak non-conference schedules. When all that settles, we think there will be four SEC playoff teams – the two championship game participants and two at-large berths. Five remains a stretch knowing some of these teams have to lose.

MORE: Texas makes a statement with blowout of Michigan

Fact or fiction? The Big 12 champion will have two losses.

Fact. It's happened in three of the last four seasons, and the Big 12 has nine 2-0 teams heading into Week 3. Yet none of those teams are ranked higher than No. 12.

No. 12 Utah has to worry about Cam Rising's latest injuries. No. 13 Oklahoma State needed double overtime to beat Arkansas 39-31, and No. 14 Kansas State survived a road scare at Tulane in a 34-27 nail-biter. No. 20 Arizona and No. 21 Iowa State are the other ranked teams, and Arizona State, BYU, UCF and TCU are the rest of the unbeaten alphabet soup that can only lead to one logical conclusion.

Cannibalization is coming, and it is coming the next three weeks at the top. Kansas State plays Arizona on Friday. Utah travels to Oklahoma State in Week 4. Those four teams switch dance partners in Week 5 when Arizona goes to Utah and Oklahoma State goes to Kansas State. The parity will be great, but the losses are going to pile up when there isn't a wide talent gap from top to bottom.

That is why a team like TCU — which went to the CFP championship in 2022-23 – or UCF – which averages 596.5 yards through two weeks – could win this conference.

Fact or fiction? The ACC champion will have two losses

Fiction. There are nine unbeaten teams and three ranked teams left in the ACC after two weeks – and one of those ranked teams is No. 22 Clemson at 1-1. No. 10 Miami and Louisville have replaced the Tigers and Florida State – which is off to an inexplicable 0-2 start – as the conference favorites after two weeks.

Miami looks for real. For real, this time. Cam Ward is among the Heisman Trophy front-runners after two weeks, and the Hurricanes only have one ranked team left on the schedule in the Cardinals. Louisville faces Notre Dame, but second-year coach Jeff Brohm has a team capable of reaching the ACC championship game for the second straight season.

There are interesting variables. Clemson could win out just as easily as any combination of Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina and Pitt could wind up in the ACC championship game. Cal, Duke and Virginia are unbeaten, too.

Still – pressed for a guess today – we think Miami and Clemson meet in the ACC championship game in a battle of two one-loss teams.

Fact or fiction? Boise State is best Group of 5 playoff bet

Fact. A subjective fact, if such a thing exists. The Broncos might not be in that position right now. There are 17 Group of 5 teams that are still unbeaten. Northern Illinois has the signature victory out of the Mid-American Conference.

Memphis gets the stage this weekend for the American Athletic Conference, albeit against an 0-2 Florida State team. Liberty has the best path in Conference USA, and the Sun Belt has six unbeaten teams.

We still like Boise State with one loss by the end of the season for pragmatic reasons. The Broncos' loss – a 37-34 shootout against Oregon in Week 2 – is an early candidate for best game of the year. Boise State plays the two other unbeaten Mountain West Conference teams – UNLV and San Jose State – on the road. And Ashton Jeanty – who has 459 yards and nine TDs on 10.2 yards per carry – is the most-exciting running back in the country.

It would be fitting if Boise State – which didn't get the chance in the BCS era and won the first New Year's Day Bowl for the Group of 5 in 2014 – would get the first G5 berth in the 12-team playoff era. They will have a compelling case – even against an unbeaten team from another conference – if they win out.