The Indianapolis Colts will be on the road for the first time this season with a trip to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in Week 2.
The two franchises don’t face that often with the last meeting coming in 2020 when the Colts won a 34-31 game in overtime.
Indianapolis is riding a three-game winning streak against the Packers with Green Bay’s last win in this series back in 2008.
Both teams are looking to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start to their seasons. Here are five things to watch when they hit the field on Sunday afternoon:
Colts vs. Packers preview: Things to watch
1. Can the Colts make the Packers offense one-dimensional?
With Jordan Love questionable but expected to miss this contest , it creates an opportunity for the Colts to make a Malik Willis-led offense beat them. The first step in this plan is not letting Josh Jacobs and their rushing attack find success on the ground like Joe Mixon and the Houston Texans did against Indianapolis in Week 1.
This was concerning with even with Grover Stewart in the lineup, the Texans still found success on the ground. Per Next Gen Stats , the Colts' defense allowed 4.0 yards per carry and a 42.3% rushing success rate when Stewart was on the field (26 carries) but allowed 7.8 yards per carry and a 78.6% rushing success rate when Stewart was off the field (14 carries).
Of the 26 runs faced with Stewart on the field, six resulted in a loss or no gain (23.1%). All 14 runs faced with Stewart off the field gained positive yardage.
Jacobs is coming off a solid first game in his Packer debut, rushing for 84 yards while averaging 5.3 YPC. Gus Bradley can’t allow this success on the ground otherwise it will set up for an easy day for Willis. The more often his defense can force the Green Bay in third-and-long situations the less they should be on the field and the opportunity to create turnovers will be there.
The second step to making their offense one-dimensional is on the offense. The sooner they can make this a two-plus score game, it will put pressure on the Green Bay offense to put up points and start to abandon the game, especially if Indianapolis can have that type of lead in the second half.
It will take a team effort but if the Colts can accomplish this, then they should be in a position to win this game in the fourth quarter.
2. Anthony Richardson's next step
Week 1 was a great look into how explosive the Indy passing attack can be this season with Richardson back in the lineup. Per Next Gen Stats, Richardson completed two passes that traveled at least 60 yards of air distance in Week 1, becoming the first quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to record two such completions in the same game.
Richardson averaged 16.5 air yards per attempt, the most by any quarterback since Week 3, 2021 (Lamar Jackson, 19.3). Richardson also averaged 17.3 air yards per completion, the fifth-most by any quarterback in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (min. five completions).
He also targeted a vertical route on 5-of-19 attempts (26%), good for the third-highest rate by a Colts quarterback in the Shane Steichen era. Those numbers could have been better if he was able to hit Adonai Mitchell on a couple of missed opportunities.
The next step for Richardson is not only hitting on those missed opportunities down the field but also making the layups to help move the chains. Improving his accuracy is an expected work in progress for him and once he can get that area of his game down, then what he can do as a passer will be limitless.
The positive is that while Richardson works on improving his accuracy, he will always be able to create plays like his 60-yard touchdown to Alec Pierce.
3. How will the secondary look without JuJu Brents, Julian Blackmon?
There was some unfortunate news for the Colts this week when it was announced that the 2023 second-round pick was headed to injured reserve and that his season is potentially over. Losing Brents at this point of the season is a major blow to a defense that was heavily depending on him taking a leap in Year 2 and helping stabilize a cornerback room that lacked proven depth.
This puts a lot of pressure on Jaylon Jones and likely Dallis Flowers to step up in his absence. There is the possibility that Gus Bradley could utilize Samual Womack III or Chris Lammons as the nickel corner and move Kenny Moore II to the boundary but the question is, would that be a detriment to move Moore II from a position that he thrives in?
Another part of the secondary to keep an eye on is safety. Blackmon didn’t practice all week with the same shoulder injury he suffered late in 2023. He was ruled out on Friday. This is another major blow to the defense because he and Nick Cross could help out in the nickel spot if Bradley wanted to put Rodney Thomas II or call up Rodney Harrison Jr. from the practice squad this week.
There are a lot of questions about the Indy secondary heading into Sunday but the good news is that they likely won’t have to face Jordan Love, who would have a field day with all the concerns about the backend of the Colts defense.
4. Can the rushing attack dominate?
The potential of what the Indy rushing attack can be with Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and this offensive line was what analysts were excited about for the Colts entering the season. Taylor and the offensive line just couldn’t get anything positive going in Week 1.
He averaged 3.0 yards per carry, which was mostly because he had limited rushing lanes to work with and the Houston defenders keying on not allowing him to take over the game. But the positive is that Taylor’s presence helped open up wide lanes for Richardson when he decided to pull it on QB reads.
How the Packers defend the rushing attack will be something to monitor. In Week 1, they allowed Saquon Barkley to run for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay’s new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will want to avoid letting Taylor have similar success but if he decides to take a similar approach as the Texans did, does that allow Richardson to create those explosive plays through the air?
The great thing about Richardson's arm is that opposing defenses will have to respect it so they won’t be able to load the box to stop the run which can help the offensive line open up rushing lanes for their back.
If Indianapolis can get the rushing attack going on Sunday, that also will help the play-action attack, something that Richardson thrived in during Week 1. Per Next Gen Stats, Richardson used play action on 11-of-24 dropbacks in Week 1 against the Texans (46%), good for the highest play action dropback rate by a Colts quarterback under head coach Shane Steichen.
Richardson completed 6-of-11 such passes for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns (13.0 avg). If Indy can get Taylor going early, that can help get that two-plus score lead and help make the Green Bay offense one-dimensional as I alluded to.
5. Can Gus Bradley confuse Malik Willis?
If the Colts are successful in making the Packers one-dimensional on offense, will Bradley’s defense take advantage of the opportunity? Green Bay traded for Willis two weeks ago so he is still fresh within Matt LaFleur’s scheme. This will be the first week he gets real practice reps with the starting pass catchers so you would think there will be timing issues when they pass the ball.
The first area that Bradley can get after Willis is with his defensive front. Per Next Gen Stats, across Willis’ 67 career pass attempts, he has recorded an average time to throw of 3.24 seconds, the longest average time among 78 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts since 2022.
Willis has been pressured on a league-high 52.1% of his dropbacks since 2022. He has been sacked on 15 of his 49 pressured dropbacks (30.6%), good for the second-highest sack rate when under pressure since 2022. He also has recorded a league-low 18.4% dropback success rate when under pressure since 2022, the only quarterback under 20%.
This sets up a great day for the Indy defensive front. While they did struggle to defend the run in Week 1, they were active in their pass rush, and one would think that Willis wouldn’t be able to make the plays under pressure like C.J. Stroud did against this defense.
There is faith that the defensive front will succeed on Sunday but what about the backend of the defense? With the shuffling of the secondary, Bradley may want to stick to the basics of his defensive scheme but based on a limited sample size, he may want to change up his coverages if his front four can’t get consistent pressure on Willis.
Per Next Gen Stats, Willis has completed 10-of-15 career passes against Cover 3 for 84 yards, resulting in a 38.1% dropback success rate. Against all other coverages, he has completed 25-of-52 career passes for 266 yards and three interceptions, resulting in a 27.4% dropback success rate. Indy's defense utilized Cover 3 at a top-four rate in both 2022 (40.1%) and 2023 (50.1%) under Bradley.
Odds say that Bradley will stick with what he does, but you would like to at least see his defense not show what they are doing in the backend during pre-snap while confusing Willis on who is coming after him from the front seven.
There is a lot of pressure on Bradley following Week 1, the noise will only get louder if his defense allows Willis to have the best game of his career on Sunday.
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