Knicks season would be major disappointment in ESPN NBA win projections

If the 2024-25 NBA season plays out like ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects , the New York Knicks could end up being a big disappointment.

The Knicks have assembled their deepest, most talented team in years, leading some to think they could significantly build upon last year's 50-win season, which occurred despite numerous injuries to key rotation players .

However, Pelton's projection system has the Knicks coming in way below what many expect: an average of 44.9 wins, seventh-best in the East, and a five-win decrease from last season.

Here's Pelton's explanation for his projections:

"My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system , adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries."

Pelton notes that his system cannot account for roster fit and also leans toward lower win totals because of injury luck.

Injury luck seemingly plays into why he projects the Knicks to win 45 games. Pelton writes:

"The Knicks' projection would have been stronger before this week's news that starting center Mitchell Robinson won't be ready to start the season after offseason surgery and is targeting a return in December or January. Already thin at center, New York will have veterans Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims filling in until Robinson returns. This is another spot where the Knicks could easily improve their projection with a midseason trade."

Robinson's injury is indeed a big concern for the Knicks , as it leaves them thin at center and reliant on players who haven't played many minutes at center.

Of course, depth, versatility, and roster fit is partially why so many in the NBA world are high on the Knicks. Their best player, Jalen Brunson, is a one-time All-Star. Julius Randle is a two-time All-Star, but one who advanced metrics don't love and is coming off an injury.

The Knicks' strength is the depth of their two-way guards and wings. Those players, such as OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart, are impactful players, but don't tend to put up big stats, and in Anunoby's case, are injury-prone.

The Knicks, in other words, are expected to be greater than the sum of their parts.

Nonetheless, injuries are a significant concern already, and the Eastern Conference playoff picture is tight.

If Pelton's projections prove true, the excitement over this Knicks season could fade quickly.

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