Can Fever-Sky top a college football Friday?

In a year of ratings milestones for women’s basketball, another could be on the horizon. Can a WNBA game — on ION, no less — take top honors on the first Friday of the college football season? Signs point to maybe.

Friday night features the season’s final matchup of the Caitlin Clark -led Fever against Angel Reese and the Sky. So far this season, the three matchups of Chicago and Indiana have been tense, closely contested, and highly viewed. The first — an early Saturday window on cable — averaged 1.5 million, but the two subsequent matchups both scored 2.3 million, ranking as the two most-watched games all season outside of the WNBA All-Star Game and Draft.

While Clark has been by far the biggest reason for the WNBA’s ratings bonanza this season, it is no coincidence that the four largest WNBA audiences have also featured Reese, her primary rival in college.

Most-watched WNBA games this season

Their final matchup — barring a highly unlikely playoff meeting — is their first in primetime this season. ION, the “netlet” formerly known as PAX, does not generate the kind of viewership one would expect on ABC, CBS or even cable’s ESPN. Nonetheless, the network has topped the million-viewer mark on four separate occasions this season (all involving Clark and the Fever). Given the matchup, Fever-Sky seems almost certain to be the fifth, and to surpass the network’s current WNBA high-water mark of 1.34 million for Mercury-Fever last month.

One of the questions heading into the home stretch of the WNBA season and looming playoffs is how much Clark’s drawing power can withstand football season. Unlike college basketball, the WNBA season reaches crunch time just as the NFL and college football get started. As a result, the league’s viewership does not rise with the stakes, as is commonplace in other leagues. Will the Clark effect be enough to change that? Friday’s results will be a good sign.

The opening Friday of the college football season is a generally low-wattage affair compared to the opening Thursday — to say nothing of the first full Saturday. This year’s slate includes Oklahoma’s SEC debut on ESPN, a matchup against Temple that is unlikely to be competitive. Louisville-Georgia Tech drew 1.65 million in the same window last year, and a similar result this time around would be a manageable bar for Fever-Sky to surpass. While the combined college football audience across all networks should comfortably surpass the WNBA, there is a realistic chance that the most-watched individual sporting event on the opening Friday of play will be Indiana-Chicago Part IV.

Predictions:

WNBA: Fever-Sky (7:30p Fri ION). Prediction: 1.72 million viewers
CFB: Temple-Oklahoma (7p Fri ESPN). Prediction: 1.69 million viewers.

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