NFL Week 1 Highlights: 3 Most Improbable Catches From The Opening Weekend

There were highlight plays all around the NFL during the opening week of the 2024 NFL season. Games stretched from Thursday night all the way into and past the weekend, and we saw some incredible throws and catches around the league, especially during Sunday’s action.

The NFL keeps track of “catch probability”, the percentage figure that they assign to a certain pass attempt that measures how likely it is that it will end in a completion. Essentially, the lower the catch probability, the more impressive the play.

So which quarterback/receiver combo had made the most improbable plays during the opening week action? Here are three of the best:

#3. Will Levis to Chigoziem Okonkwo – 21.4% Completion Probability

Q2 (3:50) (Shotgun) W.Levis pass deep right to C.Okonkwo for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Walker]

Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans were cruising on Sunday afternoon. They were up 10-0 against the Chicago Bears, and were in the midst of a 73-yard drive that ate up nearly nine minutes of game clock in the second quarter.

The march down the field was capped off by a touchdown throw from Levis that had the third-lowest catch probability from the weekend. On first and goal from the Bears’ 17-yard line, Levis dropped back to throw but was threatened by two Chicago defenders bearing down on his legs as he scanned for targets.

He found third-year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo streaking toward the back corner of the end zone, and made him the intended target with a back-footed throw. The ball arrived a bit underthrown, and it looked as though it would be easy pickings for a Bears defensive back.

But Okonkwo adjusted and made an outstanding catch over the defender, ripping the ball away and keeping possession through hitting the turf. The Titans would take a commanding 17-0 lead, but wouldn’t score again, and allowed Chicago to score 24 unanswered points and steal the victory.

#2. CJ Stroud to Nico Collins – 16.6%

Q2 (12:56) C.Stroud pass deep middle to N.Collins to IND 13 for 55 yards (N.Cross; J.Brents) [G.Stewart]

CJ Stroud completed one of the tougher passes of the weekend during the Houston Texans victory over the Indianapolis Colts.

Down 7-6 during the opening minutes of the second quarter, Stroud and the Texans had a first down at their own 32-yard line, and decided to take a deep shot. The pocket was clean enough for the quarterback to get off a nice throw, which traveled about 60 yards through the air.

But wide receiver Nico Collins had to make an adjustment, coming back for the ball and jumping up between two Colts defenders. He wound up making the circus catch, while the Indianapolis defensive backs staked their own claim for possession of the ball.

The play had a 16.6% chance of success, and wound up putting the Texans in position for the go-ahead score touchdown by Stefon Diggs.

1. Josh Allen to Keon Coleman – 16.2%

Q4 (9:18) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to K.Coleman pushed ob at ARZ 6 for 28 yards (S.Thomas).

The most improbable catch and throw from the NFL weekend was completed by one of the quarterbacks who should be vying for the MVP award this season.

The Buffalo Bills were one of the biggest favorites of the weekend, but ended up facing a 17-3 deficit against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Josh Allen and company were able to mount a large comeback, though, and eventually secured their first win of the season.

The most improbable catch of the opening weekend had a big part in their efforts. Early in the 4th quarter, the Bills were up 24–20 and had possession of the ball, looking to extend their lead. On a 2nd and 12 from the Cardinals’ 35-yard line, Allen set up in shotgun formation and threw a deep ball down the right sideline to rookie Keon Coleman, who had little room to spare. The receiver was able to stay inbounds while making a highly-contested catch, which had a catch probability of 16.3%, the lowest of any pass and catch of the weekend.