This year’s New York Knicks are going to teach us a valuable lesson

Key Highlights:

• Many individuals think that you can’t win heliocentrism, but history tells us that this isn’t really the case.
• To date, there have been 32 player seasons that constitute as heliocentric. Only one of those seasons has ended with the player’s team winning the NBA title.
• The 2024-25 New York Knicks may have the best supporting cast of any team that has ever had a heliocentric star (Jalen Brunson).

Diehard NBA fans are likely familiar with the term “heliocentrism.” If you aren’t, it is a philosophical basketball term coined by the great Seth Partnow. According to him, it is an offensive system where “a single star handles the majority of their team’s scoring and playmaking responsibilities.”

If you know what I’m talking about, you have also probably heard something along the lines of how ‘you can’t win’ by playing that playstyle. But is that actually true?

In my opinion, what we have here is a case of argumentum ad ignorantiam (a logical fallacy that occurs when someone assumes something is true or false because it hasn’t been proven otherwise). And I think that this 2024-25 New York Knicks team, led by Jalen Brunson, has a legitimate chance of laying this myth to rest once and for all.

Why Heliocentrism Usually Doesn’t Work?

As any good coach will tell you, it is usually better to play to the strengths of your specific roster (aka know your personnel) than it is to adhere to any hard-and-fast self-imposed rules about the sport. As a result, in a lot of cases, teams rely on one player to take on a lion’s share of the offensive burden because they don’t have any better options.

In 2016-17, Russell Westbrook recorded the highest Offensive Load* on record (74.4). Yet, his team only won 47 games and was swiftly dismissed by the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. Heliocentrism’s (and Westbrook’s) detractors would point to this as an example of the shortcomings of the playstyle. However, a closer look proves that Westbrook didn’t have a good enough supporting cast to make it work.

(*Sidebar #1: Offensive Load is a metric created by Ben Taylor that basically functions as a better version of usage rate. To learn more about the statistic, check out his explanation here).

When you have a heliocentric focal point, you want to flank them with rim-running bigs, three-and-D wings/forwards who can defend/space the floor/attack closeouts, and preferably, a secondary creator who can handle the torch when they’re not bearing it.

On that Oklahoma City Thunder team, Steven Adams was a solid roll man (70th percentile in 2016-17, per Synergy), but they lacked the requisite spacing (30th in 3-point percentage), and their only secondary creation came from Victor Oladipo (who had yet to reach his full form as a player).

If you look at the average Box Plus-Minus (BPM) of Westbrook’s teammates that year (who played at least 1000 minutes for the Thunder), his supporting cast ranks 25th out of the 32 heliocentric seasons we are looking at (more on this in a moment).

Has A Team With A Heliocentric Player Ever Won An NBA Title?

This seems like a good time to create an (admittedly) artificial definition of what is considered heliocentric basketball. For the sake of this exercise, let’s say to be a heliocentric player, you need to have had an Offensive Load of over 55 and have played at least 1800 minutes in that season.

Based on these parameters, we have 31 seasons of heliocentric basketball to look at. However, we will be removing the season had by Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2019-20 because his style is much different than the other players on this list (he is more of a play finisher than a play creator).

Out of those 32 seasons, only one has resulted in an NBA Championship. That was also in 2019-20, when LeBron James led the Los Angeles Lakers to their 17th NBA title. So, you can win with heliocentrism. Article over, right?

On the surface, it is easy for someone to dismiss that championship run. First, it happened during The Bubble – an unprecedented environment we will (hopefully) never see again. Second, James didn’t participate in the “true” heliocentricism that we see with guys like Westbrook, James Harden, and Luka Doncic because he had a superstar running mate in Anthony Davis. And lastly, his ball dominance wasn’t nearly as extreme as many of these other guys (his offensive load that year ranks 21st of the 32 seasons we’re looking at).

That doesn’t really change the fact that the Lakers won with heliocentrism. But let’s just say that it does. Even if you chalk that season up as an anomaly, historically, when a heliocentric player has a great supporting cast, their teams tend to go far in the playoffs.

Earlier, I cited the average BPM (of the non-heliocentric players that played at least 1,000 minutes) of the 2016-17 Thunder. Here is that number for the rest of the 32 seasons.

Heliocentric Supporting Casts

Heliocentric Player Team Year Teammates BPM Season Finish

Harden HOU 2017-18 1.5 Lost WCF

Westbrook OKC 2015-16 1.4 Lost WCF

Morant MEM 2021-22 1.3 Lost WCSF

Brunson NYK 2023-24 1.2 Lost ECSF

Young ATL 2020-21 1.1 Lost ECF

Harden HOU 2016-17 0.6 Lost WCSF

Morant MEM 2022-23 0.6 Lost WCFR

James LAL 2019-20 0.5 Won Finals

James CLE 2008-09 0.4 Lost ECF

Doncic DAL 2020-21 0.3 Lost WCFR

Doncic DAL 2021-22 0.3 Lost WCF

Young ATL 2021-22 0.2 Lost WCFR

Iverson PHI 2001-02 0.2 Lost ECFR

Doncic DAL 2019-20 0.2 Lost WCFR

Westbrook OKC 2017-18 0 Lost WCFR

Young ATL 2022-23 -0.1 Lost ECFR

James CLE 2009-10 -0.1 Lost ECSF

Harden HOU 2018-19 -0.1 Lost WCSF

Wall WAS 2016-17 -0.1 Lost ECSF

Young ATL 2023-24 -0.2 Lost Play-In

Westbrook OKC 2014-15 -0.5 Missed Playoffs

Wade MIA 2009-10 -0.5 Lost ECFR

Bryant LAL 2005-06 -0.7 Lost WCFR

Doncic DAL 2023-24 -0.8 Lost Finals

Doncic DAL 2022-23 -0.9 Missed Playoffs

Harden HOU 2019-20 -0.9 Lost WCSF

Westbrook OKC 2016-17 -0.9 Lost WCFR

Lillard POR 2022-23 -0.9 Missed Playoffs

Iverson PHI 2004-05 -1.4 Lost ECFR

Wade MIA 2008-09 -1.5 Lost ECFR

Iverson PHI 2005-06 -1.5 Missed Playoffs

Young ATL 2019-20 -1.9 Missed Playoffs

Before we analyze this chart, there is something very important that needs to be said. Just because a team didn’t win the NBA Championship does not mean that their team was not good enough to win it. In sports, you need to be good (obviously), but you also need to have some luck.

There is no better example of this than the team that leads our list in supporting cast BPM: the 2017-18 Houston Rockets. With Harden as their heliocentric centerpiece, the Rockets soared through the regular season – winning 65 games. They went on to gentlemen sweep their first two series against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz.

Unfortunately, they were rewarded for their success by having to go up against one of the greatest teams ever assembled: the Big Four Golden State Warriors. Not only did they push the Warriors further than anyone did when they were fully healthy, but they should have won the series had it not been for an untimely Chris Paul hamstring injury and 27 consecutive missed threes in a nine-point Game 7 defeat.

Ask anyone, and they’ll tell you that had the Rockets won that game, they would have easily disposed of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals. Was that team not a championship-caliber team just because they didn’t officially win it all? I don’t think so.

If you look at the rest of the top five, you see a similar story. The 2015-16 Thunder were famously up 3-1 against the 72-win Warriors. The 2021-22 Memphis Grizzlies lost to the eventual champions (the Warriors) and lost their heliocentric star (Ja Morant) in the middle of the series. There were hardly any healthy Knicks left by the end of their series against the Indiana Pacers this year (one they surely would have won if healthy). And in 2020-21, Trae Young’s Atlanta Hawks came within two wins of beating the Milwaukee Bucks (who won the title that year).

On the flip side, the heliocentric teams with the worst supporting casts saw the least amount of success. Look at Allen Iverson’s Philadelphia 76ers teams or the 2008-09 Miami Heat team that Dwyane Wade had to practically drag to the playoffs.

Why The 2024-25 New York Knicks Are Important

Now, let’s return to the genesis of this article: next season’s Knicks. To me, the Knicks have arguably the strongest supporting cast around a heliocentric player that we have ever seen. And if they can stay healthy, I think they have a chance to show us just how far heliocentrism can go.

If you look at the average BPM of the Knicks’ projected top eight players outside of Brunson (based on their BPMs from last season), it is a solid, but not spectacular, 0.5. That would put the 2024-25 Knicks in a tie with the 2019-20 Lakers for eighth on the list.

Keep in mind, though, that one-number metrics like BPM are designed to measure how well a player performs in their specific role on their specific team. The Knicks’ marquee offseason addition, Mikal Bridges, spent all of last season in a primary offensive role on the Brooklyn Nets.

Given that his skillset isn’t really suited for that type of assignment, his BPM took a huge hit (-0.4). If we use Bridges BPM from 2021-22 (when he played a role that is more similar to the one he will be playing next season), the Knicks’ supporting cast BPM goes up to 0.8*, which would be the sixth-best on our list.

(*Sidebar #2: Even with our adjustment for Bridges, the 2024-25 Knicks still have a lower supporting cast BPM than the 2023-24 Knicks because of the loss of the invaluable Isaiah Hartenstein.)

However, I think even that ranking still underrates how good this Knicks supporting cast is.* Let’s go back to our checklist for the ideal heliocentric supporting cast.

(*Sidebar #3: As I said, one-number metrics measure how well a player performs in their specific team context. None of the 2024-25 Knicks have played on the 2024-25 Knicks yet (duh). So, we won’t know their true supporting cast BPM until the conclusion of the season.)

Rim Running Big: Mitchell Robinson isn’t as dynamic of a big man as Hartenstein, but he’s still a great roll option for Brunson to work with. According to Synergy, Robinson placed in the 93rd percentile or higher in roll man efficiency every year from 2018 to 2023 (he spent most of 2024 injured).

Secondary Creator: For all the flack Julius Randle has taken over the years for being an inefficient volume scorer, he has really learned how to fit in alongside Brunson. Last year, Randle’s true shooting efficiency was 5.3% higher when he shared the court with Brunson (per PBP Stats). When you add that in with the fact that he’s still scoring at a high rate (93rd percentile in points per possession), Randle makes for a great change of pace back.

Three-and-D Wings/Forwards: This is the part that really makes Brunson’s supporting cast special. Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo spent all of 2023-24 solidifying themselves as head coach Tom Thibodeau’s all-time favorite players. Those two alone are better than most of the starters these heliocentric stars have had to share the court with (these versions of Hart and DiVincenzo probably could have started on the 2017-18 Rockets)*. And the best part is the Knicks have two three-and-D guys who are significantly better than them. Bridges and OG Anunoby have a strong case as being the two best pure role players in the league. Bridges was so sought after that the Knicks had to part with four firsts (and swaps) to get him. Meanwhile, the Knicks were 26-6 (67 win pace) in the games Anunoby suited up for them last year. I challenge anyone to name a heliocentric player who has had two three-and-D wings/forwards that match their level of versatility.

(*Sidebar #4: DiVincenzo posted a BPM of 3.4 last season. That is the 11th-highest BPM of a supporting cast player that we tracked for this article.)

The Knicks will be worth watching this year simply because they are the Knicks, and they are good. But this team will also play a huge part in weaving the story of NBA history. If they stay healthy (of course), they will show us what we should have believed all along. They will show us that you can win with heliocentrism. You just need to put the right pieces in place.