Should Caleb Williams’ Performance Be A Cause For Concern? How Hall Of Famers Fared

For the third time in the last four NFL seasons, we saw three rookie quarterbacks take the field during the Week 1 opener. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix all started for their respective teams this past Sunday, and their results were subpar at best, both statistically and in the win column.

The Rookie QBs Started During NFL Week 1 2024

Williams was the only one of the three that “led” his team to victory. The Bears scored 21 unanswered points in the second half of their comeback win over the Titans, thanks to touchdowns from both the defensive and special teams units. The #1 overall pick completed 14 of his 29 passes, but for an average of just 3.2 yards per attempt, and finished with just 93 yards through the air.

Nix wasn’t much better. The Broncos’ rookie threw the ball 42 times and amassed 138 yards, and added two interceptions to go along with zero touchdown passes. His QBR was 31.3, and Denver lost by 6 to the Seahawks.

Daniels was the most efficient of the three, completing 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards. He didn’t throw any touchdowns, either, and the Commanders lost to the Buccaneers by a score of 37-20.

QB Yards Comp. % TD INT Win/Loss

Caleb Williams 93 48% 0 0 Win

Jayden Daniels 184 71% 0 0 Loss

Bo Nix 138 62% 0 2 Loss

How Hall Of Fame QBs Performed In Their First Starts

Should the lack of production be a cause for concern? The low statistical outputs are certainly below average given the pass-happy nature of the NFL and the big quarterback numbers that we typically see. But there have been plenty of first-year quarterbacks who have struggled in their opening games, and many of them eventually went on to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Peyton Manning famously struggled in his rookie campaign, leading the league with 28 interceptions thrown. He kicked that off with a Week 1 performance against the Miami Dolphins that saw him rack up an impressive 302 yards and a touchdown. But he threw three picks on the day, which dropped his QBR to 58.6 and helped the Dolphins to a 24-15 victory.

QB Yards Comp. % TD INT Win/Loss

Peyton Manning 302 57% 1 3 Loss

Tom Brady 168 57% 0 0 Win

Joe Montana 36 42% 0 0 Loss

Dan Marino 322 66% 3 2 Loss

Brett Favre 210 74% 2 0 Win

Of the ten Hall of Fame quarterbacks who played in the 1990s or later (including Tom Brady), four had 250+ yards in their first game, and they had a respectable overall record of 5-5. That winning percentage is far better than the one put up by recent rookie QBs, though. Including the 1-2 mark from this year’s crop, first-year signal callers are 1-9-1 in their first games over the past 6 seasons.

Joe Montana and John Elway were both benched during their first NFL starts.

If you were to combine the Game 1 performances of those 10 Hall of Fame quarterbacks, it would look something like this:

• 56% Completion Percentage
• 202 Yards
• 1.4 TD
• 0.8 INT
• 50% Chance Of Victory

How The Season Might Play Out For Current Rookies

How did those Hall of Fame quarterbacks perform during their first seasons as NFL starters? Here is a look at the numbers from the Manning, Brady, and others in their first seasons in which they started at least 7 games:

QB Yards Comp. % TD INT Record

Peyton Manning 3,739 57% 26 28 3-13

Tom Brady 2,843 64% 18 12 11-3

Joe Montana 1,795 64% 15 9 2-5

Dan Marino 2,210 59% 20 6 7-2

Brett Favre 3,227 64% 18 13 8-5

AVERAGES 2,762 62% 19.4 13.4 48.4% win pct.

The average of the numbers would produce a mediocre-at-best performance for the season. But the stats have some outliers to them, including Manning’s 28 interceptions. Montana and Marino both had lower final outputs due to playing in limited games, as well.

The trio of Williams, Daniels, and Nix will continue to be the starters for their Week 2 games. The Bears will play in prime-time on Sunday night against the Texans, putting Williams in the spotlight for the first time in his pro career. Nix and the Broncos will take on the Steelers, while Daniels and the Commanders will host the Giants.