NFL Betting Trends: Underdogs continue to pay bettors in Week 3

To start the 2024 NFL season, the league has seen several major upsets. Week three was no different than the first two. Multiple underdogs won outright bets despite being +5.5 or larger against the spread. ESPN’s Ben Fawkes reported that underdogs of +5.5 or bigger in 2024 are 13-2 against the spread. That includes nine outright wins.

Per Ben Fawkes, the three most bet point spreads in Week 3 were Saints -3, Buccaneers -6, and Raiders -6. All three of those teams lost outright at home in Week 3. New Orleans played a tough game in Week 3 vs. the Eagles. However, they lost 15-12 to Philadelphia. Tampa Bay was at home in Week 3 to face an 0-2 Denver Broncos squad.

Despite the Bucs being 2-0 heading into that matchup, they lost 26-7 to rookie QB Bo Nix. Finally, the Raiders were at home to face the Carolina Panthers. A team that looked like the worst in the NFL. Carolina benched QB Bryce Young and went with veteran Andy Dalton in Week 3. He delivered with 300+ passing yards and three passing touchdowns in a 36-22 win. It was a big weekend for underdogs in the NFL.

How did the public do in Week 3?

It’s been tough sledding in the NFL betting markets to start the 2024 season. In Week 3, all three of the most bet point total overs went under. The public bet Lions-Cardinals Over 51.5, Saints-Eagles Over 49.5, and Broncos-Buccaneers Over 41. Detroit and Arizona finished the game with 43 combined points. Not enough to cash the over for bettors.

New Orleans and Philadelphia finished with 27 combined points, well short of the over 49.5-point total. Lastly, Denver and Tampa Bay finished with 33 combined points. Not enough to cash the over of 41. Under totals were more favorable to the public in Week 3. The Giants and Browns cashed the under of 38.5 in a game that ended 21-7. New York was up 21-7 at halftime but held on to win. Additionally, under 35 points hit in the Steelers vs. Chargers game in Week 3. They finished with 30 combined points in that game.

Did the Sharp bettors have any success?

One of the largest plays for sharp bettors in Week 3 was Panthers +6. That caused the line to move to +5.5 but that number did not matter for those who bet on Carolina. They won that game outright, 36-22 for their first win of the season. However, the public did miss of Chargers +2.5 as Los Angeles lost 20-10 to the Steelers.