The Southern 500 will feature a dogfight for the final NASCAR Cup Playoff spot

Ross Chastain didn’t have this on his BINGO card but here he is. Bubba Wallace has enjoyed his best overall season but feels he hasn’t met the maximum potential of his team, so here he is too.

Here , is being on the outside looking in of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs on the eve of the regular season finale and needing to either win the Southern 500 at Darlington or needing a lot of breaks to fall their way on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Chris Buescher just needs to avoid a new winner from outside of the current provisional 16 and keep Chastain and Wallace well behind him throughout the race.

Martin Truex Jr. + 58
Ty Gibbs + 39
Chris Buescher + 21
—
Bubba Wallace -21
Ross Chastain -27

Chastain

But again, Chastain never saw this coming from a group that has won two races over each of the previous two seasons and is now winless through 25 straight starts.

“This stuff (NASCAR Cup) is so hard and I knew that when I ran my first Truck race in 2011 and climbed through the ranks and in Cup cars here, where we were just here to run the laps and go a single digit number of laps down, nine or less was the goal,” Chastain said.

“I had this dream that it would be so much easier if I just had the funding and the tires, the pit crews, and it has, definitely. I don’t expect to go laps down anymore but it is real that we are in this position.

“If you would had me fill out a BINGO card at the start of the season, I wouldn’t have had this as a block for sure.”

There have been opportunities to win, like Texas, Michigan, Pocono and Nashville, but Chastain doesn’t like to ruminate. This is the only moment right now that he and the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 can control.

And while Chastain thinks there is still a mathematical chance that he advances on points, he and crew chief Phil Surgen are spending more time fixated on how to win one of the crown jewels on Sunday.

“We’ve had chances to win the Southern 500,” he said. “We’ve had chances to win a couple of races, spring and fall here, in different series. That’s my goal. The math says we can do it either way but my mind and preparation is winning.”

Wallace

Wallace is somewhat a victim of circumstance, getting bumped off the playoff grid last week when Harrison Burton won a Daytona crashfest to earn one of the 16 playoff spots at the expense of those in on championship points.

After the race, 23XI Racing co-owner Michael Jordan texted him an inspirational message that told him, the things we want cost more.

He took it to heart.

“All day, in the middle of the night, I’m telling myself you’ve just got to go out there and have best race you’ve ever had in your life,” Wallace said. “It’s just showing up, me doing all that I can. Take out the outside factors. That’s how I’m approaching it.”

Again, on performance and consistency, Wallace has enjoyed a season best run but was derailed earlier in the season by subpar pit stops that were not under his control but some driving decisions that were.

Wallace has four consecutive top-10s at Darlington, including a ninth and seventh over the past two Southern 500s. If something happens to Buescher, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Wallace can make up the points.

“It’s about taking a deep breath, understanding where we’re at,” Wallace said. “We’re not out of it by any means. If you outrun the guys you’re racing, then you should beat them. But we have to do a little extra work and I’m excited to roll the sleeves up and do that.”

Buescher

As for Buescher, he has said all year that he doesn’t count points and isn’t much of a points racer, but also conceded on Saturday that they have been more aware about the situation over the past two months.

With all of that said, he does not want constant updates about what Wallace and Chastain are doing throughout the race on Sunday.

“I’m not going to ask for silence, but no, I don’t need the updates either if it’s not significant,” Buescher said. “Ultimately, it’s just a distraction from what we need to do to go race. It’s just a different mindset going into these scenarios as we look at playoffs here. I feel like every year, we talk about points a little bit earlier in the season, and to the point where I feel like it comes up (in the Daytona 500) now.

“But no, it’s not something I’m going to ask for constant updates. When I’m in the car, I’m not completely aware of the race scenarios and everything that’s playing out, and I don’t really need to be if it’s not something that I can affect the outcome of.

“There will be a time and place for that and maybe that’s towards the end. It’s been a scenario where some of the cars we’re racing have had bad days. If we have a day or we are involved in an accident, it’s kind of updating on that situation and what we need to do to make sure we recover, but no, you’re certainly not going to hear it from my side of the radio asking for updates.”

Buescher nearly won the spring race, having been fed a Tyler Reddick slider inside the final 10 laps , leading to an emotional pit road conversation, but it’s also a reflection that he can win on Sunday.

“This is one of my favorite race tracks and absolutely love coming to Darlington,” Buescher said. “I had a chance to win the last time we were here and ended up in one of my less highlight-worthy moments and for us, it’s all about how do we come down here and win this race.

“I don’t like to be a points racer. I’m aware of our situation so if we can keep doing what we’ve been doing, each and every week, bringing fst race cars to the track, and competing for wins, and days we just need to execute a little better and that’s what we’re looking at this time around.”

Surprise winner?

It’s not the most likely outcome, and it is certainly not as likely as it was last week at Daytona, but it’s not totally out of the question that a surprise winner could eliminate all three of the above bubble drivers.

For example, Erik Jones won the Southern 500 two years ago, his second, when Legacy Motor Club was still operating as Petty GMS Racing. He won this race during his Joe Gibbs Racing tenure too. And while this has been a disappointing campaign for the No. 43 team, this is arguably its driver’s best track.

“It’s just been a long year for a lot of different reasons,” Jones said. “But, I think if I could pick one track other than a superspeedway, I would probably pick Darlington to try to go win. Definitely some confidence in that.

“Anytime you come to a place where you’ve had success with a few different groups, you have notes to dive into, and know you can get around the place and do what you need to do. I’m excited about that but its not going to be easy by any stretch.

“It’s going to be a tough race but we have a good place for what we need out of our race, our strategy, and we need everything to go right but I think this is a great shot for us for sure.”

And while Kyle Busch is mired in a dreadful season, a career worst 46-race winless drought, no one can really count out the two-time champion on any given week if Richard Childress gives him a car and pit stops that are close.

“The whole season has been frustrating and it feels like ‘what next’ but we can’t change it,” Busch said. “We have a lot of questions, and not a lot of answers right now to how our season has gone, but that’s in the past.

“You can use that as a distraction or a motivation tool and I prefer the motivation. We did not run here well in the spring but we don’t come in here with our heads low thinking we won’t run well. We held our heads to the paper and try to figure out why, and said we’re going to come here with the best piece we can, try to win the race and kick their butts.”

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