MSU official: Fall enrollment has taken a hit from FAFSA troubles but 'rebound' expected

By the time the May board meeting rolls around at Missouri State, the university's top officials typically have a solid projection of how many students — particularly freshman — will likely show up in August. This year, the numbers are murkier than usual.

Zora Mulligan, executive vice president, said there is a level of uncertainty about August 2024 because of glitches and delays associated with the rollout of the updated Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA. The FAFSA is a critical first step for any student seeking financial aid or scholarships.

At the May 9 meeting, Mulligan told the MSU Board of Governors the university has experienced an uptick in undergraduate applications and enrollments but students have been slow to make a deposit, one of the surest signs they plan to show up.

"We're always looking at next year's freshman class or the first-time, new-in-college. This is the number that's really been affected by the FAFSA issues," she said.

As of last week, MSU had received 11,998 applications — a 4.1% increase from fall 2023 — from would-be freshmen wanting to start their higher education journey at the university.

"They put a lot of effort into increasing the number of applications. That is unusual for spring," she said. "Usually, by spring, you feel like you've identified most of the people that are going to come to college in the fall. But this year, admissions, financial aid and (marketing and communications) all worked very, very hard together to get those numbers up."

The number of incoming freshmen students admitted was 9,252, a one-year increase of 2.3%. However, the number of students making deposits was 2,528, down 5.8% compared to last fall.

"We expect that number to continue to rebound. The gap has been closing in the last couple of weeks as we've been able to get financial aid offers out," she said. "We've been having really positive response from people who have been waiting for that information."

The U.S Department of Education unveiled a new FAFSA for the 2024-25 year but the delayed rollout and issues with the form itself have postponed financial aid and scholarship decisions by colleges and universities. Students, in turn, have been reluctant to commit until they know which institutions will give them a better package or how much they will be expected to cover.

MSU President Clif Smart said the university is "well ahead of most other universities" in getting financial aid offers in the hands of students.

"Our team was really on top of it. There are many universities that still have not gotten financial aid offers and that is because of the FAFSA difficulty that we're all dealing with," Smart said.

Smart noted there has been an uptick in students committing to MSU and making deposits for residence halls since the letters started going out. "We're making progress and we're closing the gap."

Mulligan said the glitches with the FAFSA rollout have taken a toll on students graduating from high school this year and trying to figure out where to go for college.

College-bound students have long been encouraged to fill out FAFSA the fall before they plan to enroll or continue in college.

Mulligan said nationally and in Missouri, only about 30% of high school seniors completed the FAFSA as of mid-April. In typical years, it's twice that amount and much earlier.

"It's hard not to be concerned about the long-term implications, not just for our university and the state but the nation," she said.

At Missouri State, the drop is closer to 25%. "We're starting with a much smaller number of students because there are lots of people who haven't even taken the step of filling out the FAFSA."

Flat enrollment likely for graduate, international students

Last fall, Missouri State reported its biggest freshman enrollment increase, from one year to the next, in its history. It was up 504 students or 22.1% over the prior year.

Officials said that influx of new students may help offset some of the trouble caused by FAFSA issues.

At the May 9 meeting, Mulligan said there was an uptick in the number of continuing undergraduate students enrolled this spring, compared to the prior year.

"We feel cautiously optimistic about overall enrollment numbers," she said.

However, the number of graduate and international students projected to enroll this fall is down slightly from a year ago.

She said while a lot of attention is paid to the size of incoming freshmen class each year, the number of continuing students annually is a critical part of the overall enrollment.

"In these numbers, you really see the strength that was created by having such a big freshman year last year," she said.

Mulligan cautioned the board not to read too much into the current projected dip this fall, compared to Fall 2023, for graduate and international students, which are expected to be fairly flat in the fall.

"These are numbers that fluctuate pretty significantly over the course of the late spring and the summer," she said.