The Best Value Picks In Your 2024 Fantasy Drafts- Running Backs
By tjgeraghty2450,
2024-07-18
In just 53 days, the 2024-2025 NFL season will begin, which means over the next 50 or so days, a plethora of fantasy drafts will occur. There are so many keys that go into building a championship team in fantasy football such as trades, free-agent signings, and some luck with injuries and matchups. It's the draft, however, where the foundation of every team is built, and hitting on mid to late-round draft picks goes a long way in creating a championship team.
At one point in time, running backs ran fantasy football with players such as Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, and Le'Veon Bell dominating fantasy. In recent years the league has become a pass-first league and the running back position has lost some value in fantasy drafts. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and a few others, there are not many running backs that fantasy players feel comfortable drafting for one reason or another. Despite the fact most running backs come with some caution, there are always running backs that outplay their average draft position and finish the season as an RB 1 or RB 2.
For example, last year according to Fantasy Pros , Rachaad White was drafted as the RB 24 and Rhaheem Mostert was drafted as the RB 41. Despite their low draft slots, White finished as the RB 5 in PPR leagues and Mostert as the RB 6 . Every year there will be running backs, and players in general, drafted much lower than where they end up finishing, and these are some of the players who have the chance to outperform their ADP.
Jahmyr Gibbs- Detroit Lions, ADP - RB 6, 14th overall:
The first player on the list is Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs doesn't fit the label of a mid to late-round selection, as he is going off the board in the early 2nd round . He does have the potential and path to finish as the RB 1 this season.
Gibbs is coming off an RB 10 finish despite a slow start to the season in which he failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards (945 yards and 10 touchdowns). Splitting carries with David Montgomery is a big reason for that. While Montgomery still exists in the backfield, Gibbs is primed to take on a larger workload this season in both the running and the passing games. Last year as a runner, Gibbs showed explosiveness, as he was 2nd to only James Conner in 20+ yard runs with 10 . Gibbs hit that total on only 182 attempts, which means 1 out of every 18 carries went for at least 20 yards for Gibbs.
While Gibbs is primed to earn more volume on the ground, the area he should receive a major boost is the passing game. The Lions are running things back on offense for the most part, but lost Josh Reynolds in free agency and have a total of 91 vacated targets from last year's offense. Coming out of the draft, Gibbs was viewed as a dual-threat running back with strength as a receiver due to his speed and quickness. Last year, Gibbs received 71 targets and hauled in 52 of them for 316 yards and 1 touchdown. With an extra 91 targets up for grabs and Jameson Williams as the only new full-time player, Gibbs should get plenty of extra looks out of the backfield.
Between an anticipated increase in volume on the ground and through the air, Gibbs should clear last year's production with ease, making an RB 1 finish feasible. Even if Gibbs doesn't finish as the RB 1, finishing higher than the RB 6 seems like it should be a lock as long as he stays healthy.
While Gibbs is viewed as an elite fantasy running back based on his draft capital, Conner is not, with his ADP of RB 23 . Conner is coming off an RB 18 finish last season despite missing 4 games and leaving another game. Even with the missed time, Conner still had 208 carries for 1,040 yards and 7 touchdowns on a bad Cardinals offense that was missing Kyler Murray for most of the season.
In the portion of the draft Conner is being selected, fantasy players are looking for 1 of 3 things in a running back- high usage, touchdown upside, or passing game work. Of those three, Conner fits the mold of two, as Conner is the typical bell cow at running back and is the clear goal-line back for the Cardinals. Conner is coming off back-to-back seasons with 7 touchdowns but back in 2021, Conner had 15 touchdowns in 15 games for a dynamic Cardinals offense.
The worry around Conner is a combination of injury concerns as Conner has never played a full season, and the Cardinals selecting Florida State's Trey Benson in the third round of the NFL Draft. Of the 2 concerns, the injuries are the one that makes more sense as Conner is prone to missing some time. Benson is not as much of a worry, as the staff has talked up Conner multiple times as their guy. Additionally, Conner is still a productive back who is more than capable of leading the Cardinals backfield while Benson gets adjusted to the NFL. Benson also doesn't cause much concern for this season because Conner is an unrestricted free agent following the 2024 season . This allows the Cardinals to let Benson work his way into the offense throughout the season and take over as the full-time back in 2025.
There is worry the Cardinals won't be a good team, which could be true but seems unlikely. With Kyler Murray returning and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinal's offense should be vastly improved. A better offense will lead to more scoring opportunities for Conner. He has a chance to be this year's David Montgomery for fantasy with more upside. Montgomery was the definition of consistent last year but had almost no production in the passing games as he split time with Jahmyr Gibbs. Conner will certainly lose some work to Trey Benson but will still dominate snap percentage, and more importantly the goal-line work. If all goes well, Conner could easily finish as a top-12 back this season.
Last year's RB 6 in PPR formats and RB 2 in half PPR formats is being drafted at the RB 31 despite the situation being the same as it was last year. It makes no sense at all because his teammate De'Von Achane is being drafted as the RB 9 and 21st overall player in drafts.
Achane has every right to be viewed as a top 10 running back for this upcoming season due to his home run ability that he showcased last season. Achane ran for 800 yards in just 103 attempts with 8 touchdowns . Meanwhile, Mostert put up 1,012 rushing yards last season with 21 total touchdowns with 18 on the ground and 3 through the air . While it is unlikely Mostert duplicates his 21-touchdown season, he is still the Dolphins starting running back, and will at the very least split carries with Achane. The Dolphins are one of the league's most explosive offenses and Mostert is a big part of that. Due to his speed and power out of the backfield, and signing a 2-year extension over the off-season, it is very unlikely his role will decrease.
Along with the extension and production last year, Achane is another reason Mostert is likely to see a similar volume. Achane only played in 11 games as a rookie last season and was always an injury risk due to his size. If Miami wants to have Achane available for the whole season, they need to keep his workload limited. Achane showed last season he doesn't need many touches to be productive, and while he should see more work this year, it shouldn't ruin Mostert's value like it has been thus far. Mostert will still be the goal line back for one of the league's most prolific offenses, he'll see plenty of work, and he should easily clear his ADP once again.
Last season the Brown dealt with so many injuries all over the field and one of their biggest losses was star running back Nick Chubb. As soon as Chubb went down for the year, everyone started to question if the Browns should make a trade for a running back, or if they sign a vet off the free-agent market. They ended up bringing back Kareem Hunt, but he was there to be the backup. Instead of looking at the outside for help, the Browns turned to the 2nd year back in Ford. While he didn't dominate, he was more than serviceable and helped the Browns offense stay afloat.
Chubb is expected to return this season, but there has not been much talk about his recovery timeline, or how healthy he will be by the start of the season. Regardless of when Chubb returns, it is highly unlikely he will return to his normal workload after coming off a gruesome injury where he tore both his MCL and ACL . With Chubb likely moving into a reduced role to preserve his health, there's a clear role for Ford. At the minimum, Ford should be the team's third-down back and could even rotate every series on 1st and 2nd down with Chubb. If Ford does end up with a shared workload and possibly more, he will outperform his RB 40 draft slot.
Chandler is the first player on the list who is slotted as the clear backup but has RB 1 potential if he were to become the team's starter. Last season, Chandler began the year as the backup to Alexander Mattison, and as the season went on, all fans wanted was for Chandler to get on the field more. Chandler is a young explosive back who is a threat out of the backfield and needs to see the field more entering his third season. It was clear last season he was the better back between he and Alexander Mattison, but this year he has a proven star in front of him in Aaron Jones.
Jones will enter the season as Minnesota's leading rusher as he should but Minnesota should monitor his snaps. Between Jones's injury history and Chandler's strong finish to last season Jones should lose some work to Chandler to keep himself fresh for the whole season. If Jones stays healthy for the entire season and records 65% of the carries then Chandler probably won't have much fantasy value. Considering that Jones has only played an entire season twice in his career it seems likely that he will miss some time. If Jones ends up missing an extended period, then Chandler should explode.
Before his injury in week 10 Mattison was seeing all of the work out of the backfield for the Vikings. Once exiting in week 10, Chandler stepped in and secured a full-time role for the rest of the season. In the 8 games after Mattison's injury, Chandler put up 419 yards and 3 touchdowns. 132 of those yards came in their week 15 game vs the Bengals where Alexander Mattison missed the entire game. In that week 15 game, Chandler showed what he could if given the full workload with 132 yards and 1 touchdown. If Chandler gets a chance to be the team's starter this season over multiple weeks, he could be a true stud for fantasy and even a league winner.
Drafting Chandler does not require a large investment as he is being taken between the 11th and 12th rounds in twelve-team leagues. If Chandler hits, whether that be by an injury to Jones or just maximizing his opportunities, he could wind up being the steal of the draft.
6. Marshawn Lloyd- Green Bay Packers, ADP - RB 47, 145th overall:
This off-season the Packers signed a former Pro Bowl running back in the Raiders Josh Jacobs to seemingly be the team's lead back of the future. They handed him a 4-year deal worth $48M after 5 seasons with the Raiders. Despite signing Jacobs, the Packers still felt the need to bring in another back, and they decided to draft Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL draft out of USC. Lloyd bodes well as a nice compliment to Jacobs as Lloyd is more of a home run hitter, as Jacobs is a power back with a 3-down skill set. Despite Llyod appearing to be the clear backup, it appears this could be more of a split backfield than it first appeared.
The Packers for a long time wanted to pair Aaron Jones with another back to keep him healthy. They tried A.J. Dillon who had flashes, but he never became the consistent compliment they wanted. Now with Jacobs and Lloyd, there could be a Jones and Dillon dynamic, but with Lloyd playing Jones's role and Jacobs playing Dillon's role. Even if the two split the backfield Jacobs will still lead in snap percentage as he is the better back and was viewed as a priority for Green Bay. If Lloyd winds up getting 35%-40% of the snaps then he could be a steal in your drafts. If Lloyd eventually surpasses Jacobs and becomes the lead back for Green Bay, then Lloyd will undoubtedly smash his ADP.
The reason there appears to be a chance that Lloyd sees more work than expected is that Jacobs is coming off of a down season. Last season Jacobs only averaged 3.5 yards per carry and only 805 yards . The previous season(2022-2023), Jacobs led the league in rushing, with 1,653 on 340 attempts averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Jacobs has been a bellcow back since he entered the league and there's a chance it caught up with him last season. If so, it makes sense Green Bay would want to ease his workload and keep him fresh throughout the season.
Due to Jacob's large workload throughout his career and Lloyd's day 2 draft capital, there is good reason to believe Lloyd will be more involved than anticipated. Lloyd could find himself being at least a weekly flex play with top-20 upside at the running back position. If you can find that kind of value in the 12th round that is an absolute steal.
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