What The Metrics Had To Say About Richmond

The world of sports data is constantly changing, with more information available to teams, athletes, and even the common fan that can be used to predict performance trends. NASCAR is no different, and the author of this post has built a number of analytical metrics to help give race fans a more advanced view of the action on the track—because, as any driver can attest to, auto racing isn't always a fair sport.

The following numbers – explained in full detail here – are designed to measure driver performance in various aspects of each race, many of which come from NASCAR’s Loop Data . They are ranked by True Driver Rating (TDR), a variation on NASCAR’s Driver Rating , which incorporates factors such as speed, track position, passing, luck, and equipment strength in order to best estimate how well each driver performed during an event.

The metrics from Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway are as shown below:

Lost in the calamity of Austin Dillon's downright dirty win was that he did legitimately run a great race. Dillon, 32nd in points entering the event, would win on merit in one of the most improbable performances NASCAR has seen in years before a late caution set up the overtime shootout in which he wrecked Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin.

Because of that, Dillon ended up with the fourth-best TDR rating on Sunday, behind only the two drivers he wrecked and Christopher Bell. Bell had arguably the fastest car but took himself out of contention for the win with a speeding penalty late in the going, ultimately finishing sixth.

Behind those front four, several shoutouts are in order. First off is Carson Hocevar, who has been impressive all season but was especially so on Sunday night. Driving for a struggling Spire Motorsports team, Hocevar ran near the top 10 all race long and finished eighth, earning himself the fifth-best TDR rating largely due to how badly he crushed his teammates Zane Smith and Corey LaJoie.

In sixth is Daniel Suarez, who enjoyed one of the best runs of his career after using some tire strategy to get to the front early on. Credit to him for staying there, though, leading 93 laps and finishing 10th, while Michael McDowell -- who used the same strategy as Suarez -- finished 15th with a ninth-place TDR score.

It was an unpredictable race with an even more unpredictable finish, yet all things considered, the Fairness Rating of .7352 isn't too bad. The only non-stage caution during the race was for Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.'s crash with two laps to go, so there were few opportunities for the running order to be shuffled.

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