Predicting Each NFL Division Winner

Calling each division winner before the season starts

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

On paper, the Falcons have the best quarterback (Baker is debatable), running back room (Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara are debatably better running backs but no one beats Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier as a duo), offensive line, tight end, and safety duo.

Baker Mayfield just had arguably his best season, but lost his offensive coordinator Dave Canales who helped put together that season. Kirk Cousins played just eight games but had a completion percentage of 69.5% (greater than Mayfield's by over five percent) and a 103.8 rating (greater than Mayfield's by nearly 10 percent). Cousins had a 1.6 interception % compared to Mayfield's 1.8%. Cousins had a 5.8 touchdown % compared to Mayfield's 4.9%. Cousins averaged 7.5 yards per attempt compared to Mayfield's 7.1. Cousins recorded a qbr of 63.2 compared to Mayfield's 54.3. By all the numbers Cousins is better a quarterback and now he is coming to PFF's third-highest-rated offensive line in the NFC (Minnesota was ranked sixth).

The Falcons' have a ton of firepower and if Cousins can stay healthy the offense can be damn near unstoppable.

On the defensive side, the Falcons have been active recently. In the last week, the team has added four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Matthew Judon and four-time all-pro safety Justin Simmons.

Judon is easily the best pass rusher in the NFC South. In his Patriots tenure, he recorded 32 sacks in 38 games and in 2022 he had 15.5 sacks which was good for third most in the NFL. In 2023 the Falcons were not last in the NFL in sacks but last in pass rush win rate. Now they add Judon, who is second best in the NFL in pass rush win rate since 2019.

While Judon bolsters the pass rush tremendously, he will also act like a mentor for the young guys who Falcons' fans have been begging to breakout for years now.

Arnold Ebiketie (25) and Zach Harrison (23) were beginning to figure it out near the end of last season. Now with one of the NFL's best in Matthew Judon showing them the ropes they should be significantly better. While the Falcons do not have the best overall pass rushing group in the South (that would be the Buccaneers) they have enough on that side of the ball to make do.

Lastly the Falcons added Justin Simmons who was named second-team all-pro last season and led the NFL in interceptions in 2022. He will be paired with Jessie Bates who was arguably the best safety in the NFL last year. Although Simmons is not the best tackler the duo of ballhawks will be scary for all NFL offenses.

Overall the Falcons improved the most of any NFC South team. Firstly they lost a bottom-three quarterback in Desmond Ridder. They also lost a bottom-five play-caller in Arthur Smith and added an offensive coordinator from the Sean McVay tree. Then they added a head coach who is building a culture and helped a team win a super bowl just three years ago.

The Buccaneers lost: their best cornerback, a top two line backer on their team, and their offensive coordinator who rejuvenated Baker Mayfield's career.

The Saints did almost nothing besides upgrade their secondary which was already pretty good.

The Panthers upgraded at skill positions, but are still lacking a clear-cut alpha wide receiver. Their offensive line is better on paper and Canales is a great pickup but their defense does not look threatening. Outside of Jaycee Horn, they lack serious cornerback depth, and Horn has been struggling to stay on the field. They lost their best pass rusher in Brian Burns and their best linebacker in Frankie Luvu. They have an elite dc in Eijero Evero but not many pieces to work with outside of Derrick Brown and an older Jadeveon Clowney.

On top of all that the Falcons are tied with the Saints for the easiest schedule in the NFL. If the Falcons do not win the division this year it will be one of the biggest failures in sports.

NFC North: Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions were just in the NFC Championship last season, and now their team has gotten even better. Their cornerback core last year was their biggest weakness and since they have added Carolton Davis (who shut down 2019 OPOY Michael Thomas in 2020) and Terrion Arnold (arguably CB1 in the 2024 NFL draft). They also added Ennis Rakestraw Jr who is a good cb out of Missouri.

Now their biggest weakness is wide receiver depth behind Amon-Ra St Brown. This is not a huge weakness as last season Josh Reynolds (their wr2) had a huge costly drop in the NFC Championship game. Also they have Sam LaPorta who was tight end one in fantasy football metrics last year and Jahmyr Gibbs who is one of the best receiving backs out of the backfield. If Jameson Williams can live up to his potential (which is probably similar to a Deebo Samuel at home) their weapon group is good despite the weak WR depth.

Not only that but the Lions added Kevin Zeitler, a good guard to an already great offensive line.

The Packers had a good offseason adding safety Xavier Mckinney and replacing Darnell Savage who was a liability. However, Jaire Alexander was showing signs of regression last season, not being able to keep up with WRs, and they still do not have a clear-cut WR1. The Packer's also lost one of their best LBers in De'Vondre Campbell, and they struggled mightily against the run already last season. The Packers should comfortably finish second in the North.

The Bears had arguably the best offseason in the entire NFL, adding Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Keenan Allen to their offenses. Williams has been showing elite flashes in preseason along with Odunze, but the concern is Allen. Reports out of camp are that Allen has put on weight and looks to be struggling to run his routes. The Bears also lack CB depth outside of Jaylon Johnson and picked up Kevin Byard who looked as if Father Time had caught up with him last year. The Bears could win the division, but it is very unlikely.

The Vikings have had one of the worst off-seasons ever. They took QB JJ McCarthy 10th overall, who ended up injured for the entire season. The next day Jordan Addison got injured, and he also was arrested for a DUI earlier this offseason. Vikings rookie CB Khyree Jackson also sadly passed away earlier this offseason due to a drunk driver.

The Lions should win this division handily.

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers probably have the best roster in the entire NFC. The Brandon Aiyuk drama of this offseason will seemingly end with him back in San Francisco. The only slight concern for this team is CMC suffered a small calf injury in camp but he should be good to go by week one.

The 49ers lost returner and wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud but replaced him with elite YAC guy Ricky Pearsall out of Florida. They added an elite LB in De'Vondre Campbell and replaced Chase Young with Leonard Floyd. They added Rock-Ya Sin and Isaac Yidiom (who were very solid last year) to bolster their CB depth (which was already pretty good).

They have arguably no flaws on their roster and should win the division handily.

The Seahawks had a great offseason and should finish second in the division. Geno Smith did regress last season, throwing 10 less touchdowns, 600 less yards, and seeing his completion percentage dip by five percent, along with his passer rating dipping by eight. They added a new HC in Mike Macdonald who was the DC of the Ravens last year, who were statistically the best regular season defense in 2023 (they also held the Chiefs to 17 points and just seven in the second half of the AFC Championship). They have an elite WR core with JSN looking to see way more volume this year and an elite CB tandem. They added an elite DT in the draft (something they desperately needed) and had a better offseason than the Rams which should lead to them vaulting them in the standings.

The Rams lose DT Aaron Donald, who is debatably the best defensive player of all time. Even in his last season, he was still getting double and triple-teamed and still ended up with eight sacks, his departure will be huge, although the Rams do have a great DT in now second-year Kobie Turner, who was PFF's 11th-ranked DT last season. The Rams also lost DC Raheem Morris who is now HC of the Atlanta Falcons. Although the Rams offense still looks good, the defense should regress without Donald and Morris.

The Cardinals are building something slowly but surely around Kyler Murray, but 2024 is not their year to compete for the division. They are lacking too much on the defensive side of the ball and the offense outside of Murray, Harrison JR, and Mcbride is weak.

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles had a generational fall-off after starting 10-1 they ended the season 11-6. The reason for their fall off was their secondary and LB core. After an all-pro season in 2022, James Bradberry did not come close to maintaining said play. He was one of the worst defenders in the NFL according to PFF. Safety Kevin Byard was also not playing up to his usual standards and the Eagles had a washed Darius Leonard leading their LB Core. Now the Eagles have added Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper Dejean, Devin White, and CJ Gardner Johnston to their defense. On top of that, they add Saquon Barkley to an offense stacked with weapons.

The Cowboys were humiliated in the playoffs by the Packers at home and Jerry Jones responded by doing nothing. He won't even pay Ceedee Lamb who was just second in the NFL in receiving yards last season. The Eagles improved massively at their weakest positions (lb, safety, and cb) while the Cowboys stood put and did nothing.

The Giants lost their best weapon in Barkley and their best safety in Xavier Mckinney. They added Brian Burns which will help their defensive line, and Malik Nabers but outside of that they have little to work with. Darren Waller retired and the Giants have no CB depth at all. This team will be bad.

The Commanders lost out on Ben Johnson and had to settle for Dan Quinn. They signed corners who are all old, have a bad offensive line, lack WR depth (Jahan Dotson regressed mightily) and lost Curtis Samuel, and have a rookie QB. This is not a good recipe to win games.

AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans won the division last year but it was only by one game and the Jaguars had one of the worst DCs in the NFL last season. Now they add Ryan Nielson who had the Falcons defense as a top 10 defense statistically and was the DC for Jessie Bates best season.

The Jaguars added weapons to their offense namely Brian Thomas Jr who led the entire SEC in touchdowns last season. He has been impressing in camp and should make up for Calvin Ridley who had about eight dropped touchdowns from Trevor Lawrence last year. The Jags also added Gabe Davis who is a very streaky WR but is a pretty solid deep threat.

The biggest difference is Nielson, as it was the Jaguars defense falling off a cliff which lead to their late season demise.

The Texans are a great team that had a great offseason, however, they don't seem primed to win the division. CJ Stroud had only five interceptions last season, and this number should go up this season. In 20 years Brady only had two seasons with five or fewer ints, and one was a season in which he played 12 games. Brees also only has two such seasons and one was a season in which he played 11 games. Stafford has one such season, but he only played nine games. Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Russel Wilson etc have never had such a season. Unless he's Aaron Rodger's level of not turning the ball over he will see more ints, and interception luck is so volatile and fluctuates heavily from year to year. Stroud also had at least three dropped interceptions last season alone.

The addition of Diggs will cause more harm than benefit. The Texans offense chemistry will be ruined now as Diggs demands to be wr1. Both Tank Dell and Nico Collins did not demand targets and because of this the offense flowed smoothly. Now it won't proceed as smoothly, and that along with Stroud interception luck regressing to the mean will be enough for the Jaguars to win the division.

The Colts are a very good football team. They have three elite wrs, a great qb, and an elite rb in Johnathon Taylor. However it all hinges on AR's ability to stay healthy and he suffered two injuries in just five games last season.

The Titans have a good offense on paper. They bolstered their offensive line in the draft and they added a top 10 corner in the offseason. But Levis is not a good enough QB to keep pace with the other three in this division.

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens added King Henry which is huge but lost Jadeveon Clowney, Kevin Ziegler, Ronald Darby, Kevin Patrick Queen, and Geno Stone who signed with their rivals over in Cincinnati. Stone had eight interceptions last season which was second in the NFL only one behind NFL leader Daron Bland. The Ravens also lose DC Mike Macdonald who called the plays to make the Ravens the best defense in the regular season last year.

The Bengals add the aforementioned Stone along with another good safety in Vonn Bell. They added a big guy to plug the middle who had six sacks along with a force fumble last year. They lost Tyler Boyd but add Jermaine Burton who has been tearing it up in camp and preseason. Tee Higgins requested a trade, but played in the Bengals first preseason game. Trey Hendrickson who had 17.5 sacks last season had requested a trade earlier in the offseason but ended up committing to the Bengals. The Bengals won the division in 2021 and 2022, and now with Burrow healthy again and a revamped defense they look primed to win it again in 2023.

The Browns made the playoffs last year but that was after Deshaun Watson got hurt on the backs of Joe Flacco. They added Jerry Jeudy to their wr core this season, but it all hinges on how well Watson plays. Chubb will also be coming back this season, although he is currently on the PUP list. Watson has not been very good since arriving in Cleveland and the ravens and Bengals just have far better QBs to warrant putting the Browns above them.

The Steelers got rid of one bad OC to add another bad one. Arthur Smith struggled to get his weapons involved in Atlanta and he does not have many weapons to work with in Pittsburgh. George Pickens is great but they have virtually no WR depth behind him. Their QB's are middling and they also lack CB depth outside of Joey Porter Jr. They will be fighting with the Browns for third in the division.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

This is a no-brainer, the back-to-back Super Bowl champions will win the division handily. The Chiefs won the super bowl last year despite a WR core that led the NFL in drops. To combat this they added Xavier Worthy (the WR with the fastest 40 time in NFL history) and Marquise (Hollywood) Brown two great deep threats, something the Chiefs have lacked since Tyreek Hill left.

The Chiefs lose Mike Edwards and Ljarius Sneed. Sneed is a huge loss and Edwards is pretty significant but they have starters lined up to take over their spots. Keeping Chris Jones is huge and they have Patrick Mahomes the best QB in the NFL.

The rest of the division is a mess. The Chargers should finish second, finally adding a good HC in Michigan's John Harbaugh who just won the National Championship, but there are a lot of holes on that roster. They have an elite QB in Justin Herbert, a solid offensive line, a good slot WR in Ladd McConkey and two good RBs in JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards alongside a potential diamond in the rough in sixth-round RB Kimani Vidal. They have no good tight ends and WRs outside of McConkey (Josh Palmer is solid) and lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the same offseason. Derwin James regressed mightily last season and injuries have seemed to caught up to Joey Bosa. Their CB depth is weak, but they should be better than both Denver and Las Vegas.

The Raiders have a lot of things going for them. They have a plethora of weapons in Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Zamir White, Brock Bowers, and Michael Mayer. On the defensive side of the ball they have a stacked defensive line featuring Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. Where they struggle is CB depth and QB. Gardner Minshew has been named their starting QB and despite the elite weapons in place, the career journey man probably won't be able to unlock the best of their abilities. It is a similar case to what we saw in Atlanta last year, with Desmond Ridder struggling despite being surrounded by talent.

The Broncos are clearly rebuilding. They lost an all-pro safety and their starting QB who they traded a haul for just two years ago. They lost a starting WR in Jerry Jeudy and have minimal WR talent behind that. They have a QB battle between Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, and Zach Wilson that has not been won yet, but despite who wins it they will have at best the third best QB in the division. They lack CB depth behind Patrick Surtain (who might be traded) and have almost no pass rush. It will be an ugly year in Denver.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills

Many people don't believe in the Bills because they lost Stefon Diggs and both their starting safety's from last year, but they are still the best team in the division.

Diggs was actually outplayed by Khalil Shakir to end the season, and Shakir showed up in the playoffs while Diggs went ghost. On top of that the Bills added Keon Coleman, a contested catching beast out of Florida State University, and Curtis Samuel a YAC machine. Dalton Kincaid played well as a rookie and should only get better.

They added Mike Edwards who started for a Chiefs defense that was statistically better than the 2015 No-Fly-Zone Broncos defense (by ppg metrics) in the playoffs. Both the safety's they lost were on the older side and Taylor Rapp is solid. Rasul Douglas was playing well to end the season and their pass rush is still good anchored by Ed Oliver, Aj Epenesa, and Greg Rousseau.

The Dolphins probably have a better roster but Tua has yet to prove he can win big games, case in point week 18 against the Bills in 2023 in which they lost and lost the division.

The Jets have a 41 year old Aaron Rodgers coming off a season ending injury. They have a middling offensive line, and their best WR after Garrett Wilson is Mike Williams who can barely stay on the field. Tyler Conklin is their starting tight end. Their defense is of course stacked aside from their LB core which is weak. Josh Allen in 2024 will be better than Rodgers (Tua might be better too) and their offense is just too weak to keep up with the Bills.

Drake Maye is a great pickup for the Patriots but outside of him they lack good players at almost every position and just traded their best player (Matthew Judon) for a third round pick.

Read More NFL News From Stadium Rant Here: NFL News

MORE FROM STADIUM RANT:

If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to our newsletter here . Check out Stadium Rant Original shows on our Youtube channel and subscribe! Give our socials Facebook , Twitter , Instagram , TikTok a follow for more great content!

Follow me on social media:

X/Twitter:

@ATLFalconsMuse

@Arkeshrayyyy

@ATLHiveOOC

Tiktok/Youtube: @ARSPORTSDynamic