Penny And Cassie Pick Week Two Of The 2024 NFL

The Two Dogs Didn’t Start Out Strong, But They Didn’t Disappoint.  Penny And Cassie Nailed The Biggest Upset Of The Week In The NFL, And Delivered Picks That Place Them Around Even For The Season To Date.

A Week Of NFL Games That Included Three Pushes In The Results Have The Dogs Treading Water.  Penny And Cassie Now Look To Make Some Positive Strides With Their Second Round Of Selections Against The Spread.

Cassie and Penny were okay in week one, and have their game faces on for their selections in week two.

The word to use is respectable.  Penny and Cassie did not receive impressive results from the first week of picks.  Penny finished up the week just above, even at 7-6-3.  Cassie was close to that at 6-7-3.  Those records will not earn big wins in a sports book, but they aren’t hideous for a first effort.

My record was stronger, finishing up at 11-2-3.  To give you an idea of why breaking even is respectable for the dogs, I’m just one bad week away from either of them catching and passing me.

Last week’s results and this week’s odds illustrate a few gambling thoughts that should always be considered but seldom are.

First – Never bet on an underdog to cover the spread if you don’t think they can win the game outright.  If something is telling you things aren’t quite right and that the team you’re about to bet on can’t win the game, you should do a bit of investigating.  It’s tempting to believe a team may lose while covering the spread.  It’s not good business to bet that way.  This week, Atlanta is on the road against Philadelphia, with the Eagles favored by 6.   That seems like a lot when the Eagles hardly controlled the Packers, and the Falcons faced a rough Steeler defense to open the year.  If your approach is that Philadelphia wins and Atlanta covers, when the spread is just two field goals, picking them to accomplish that on the road when you see no way of Atlanta winning is a shaky proposition.  There are better places to risk your wager.

Second – There are always events taking place behind the scenes, and some of them are hidden in plain sight.  Cincinnati lost against New England.  The Bengals never looked good during the game.  Tee Higgins wasn’t on the field for the contest.  Ja’Marr Chase played and did fine with six receptions for 62 yards, but he did not provide any storyline-worthy moments in a game where Joe Burrow threw for just 162 total yards.  Burrow and his teammates looked out of rhythm even though he completed more than 72 percent of his passes and wasn’t intercepted.  There should be a large amount of credit given to Jerod Mayo and his staff, along with the performance of the New England defense.  However, evidence was there to suggest that this wouldn’t be a runaway Cincinnati victory.  Chase has been not-so-quietly involved in a contract discussion with the Bengals and had been listed as questionable until hours before kickoff. Burrow is returning from injury, and the Bengals looked lifeless in a matchup everyone expected to be a rout. Something was taking place beyond the Patriots delivering a strong performance on the road.

Third – Expect the unexpected to not only be possible but probable.  Christian McCaffrey was out of practice for several weeks this summer with an injury.  After declaring himself ready to go and a definite to play, he wasn’t in uniform for the season opener, and San Francisco is now being questioned about their injury reports before the game.  The Vikings are up next for the 49ers, in a short-week road game played on a newly installed synthetic surface.  After expressing no doubt he’d be available for game one, expectations should be that McCaffrey will be sidelined again.

Fourth – Beware the early-season emotional roller coasters.  Some teams are not nearly as good as the first game or two may suggest.  New Orleans looked like a Super Bowl contender as they cruised to a victory over Carolina.  They’re not a contender.  They played an awful Carolina team at home in a contest that was quickly out of control and stayed that way.

You should absolutely have fun making wagers.  You should gamble responsibly.  And whenever you have a nagging feeling something isn’t quite right, your best bet is always going to be holding off until you figure out what’s wrong.  Impulse wagers are one of the fastest ways to empty your wallet.  (The predictions below should be viewed as an example of this.  No matter how driven and motivated they are to get the selections right, two out of every three were made by a Golden Retriever looking for a snack.  Consider yourself warned.)

Predictions from Penny and Cassie were handled the same as week one.  Two sheets of paper were designed to reflect the teams in each game.  Those pages were moved around to prevent a bias in the selection process.  The first sheet visited by the dog was used as their pick for that game.

I’m ahead by four and five games against these two puppies.  Let’s see how that lead holds up.

Looking to improve upon her first picks, Cassie likes the Bills over the Dolphins.

Buffalo Bills At Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

The Bills sometimes struggled against the Cardinals, though once they took the lead in the game, it felt like a victory was never in doubt.  The game played out something like a stereotypical Buffalo win in recent years.  The Dolphins looked uncomfortable against the Jaguars and were fortunate they shut out Jacksonville in the second half.  My thoughts say to take Buffalo as the winner in a close game.  My nagging doubts have Miami putting together a game that breaks the scoreboard.  In the past two seasons, the Bills have been 3-1 against the Dolphins, and they have arrived at this contest having won three head-to-head meetings in a row.  Take the Bills.

Bob: Buffalo

Penny: Buffalo

Cassie: Buffalo

Las Vegas Raiders At Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)

The Raiders didn’t look good against the Chargers in week one.  Replay confirming the call or not, the Ravens are using their loss to ramp up the disrespect chip on their shoulders.  There is no way Las Vegas will win this game, and there is no reason to believe Baltimore will have the spread cleared by halftime.

Bob: Baltimore

Penny: Baltimore

Cassie: Las Vegas

Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) At Carolina Panthers

This Los Angeles team is stronger than the New Orleans team that steamrolled Carolina last week.  Bryce Young played horribly, throwing two interceptions and completing only 43 percent of his passes.

Bob: Los Angeles

Penny: Carolina

Cassie: Carolina

New Orleans Saints At Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

The early season emotional roller coaster warning is in play for this game.  The Saints are not that good.  Here’s what you need to know: (1) Dallas always plays well at home during the regular season.  They’ve won their last fifteen games during the regular season at AT&T Stadium.  (2) In 2023, in sweeping the regular season contests in Arlington, they won six of their eight home games by more than twenty points.  (3) Dak Prescott always looks like a most valuable player candidate for the first eight to ten weeks of a season.

Bob: Dallas

Penny: Dallas

Cassie: Dallas

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Detroit Lions (-6.5)

In 2023, Detroit swept the two games between these teams.  Detroit won on the road early in the year and then took the playoff meeting on their field.  Tampa Bay was steady, methodical, and efficient in all aspects of play during a victory over Washington.  Detroit’s effort wasn’t pretty in the first week, but they were able to do enough to secure the win.  I’m wondering about the Lions and whether the expectations for this season caused some jitters that getting the start out of the way, plus defeating the Rams, will put aside.  Can the Bucs catch the Lions sleeping and play a full game that results in a win?

Bob: Tampa Bay

Penny: Tampa Bay

Cassie: Tampa Bay

Indianapolis Colts (-3) At Green Bay Packers

This is a brutal game to pick.  Indianapolis is, at best, one of the better teams residing in the lower half of the NFL power rankings.  They barely sneak into the top twenty.  Green Bay, at full strength, is good enough to play deep into the postseason.  The Colts gave the Texans a scare in a home game against a divisional foe last week.  The Packers lost their starting quarterback for a few weeks and have no one on the roster to replace him.  They say football is a team game.  I don’t think the Green Bay team overcomes the loss of a significant player.

Bob: Indianapolis

Penny: Green Bay

Cassie: Indianapolis

Cleveland Browns At Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Cleveland looked every bit an also-ran in their loss to Dallas last week.  The Browns have a better defense than it showed against the Cowboys, providing room for some optimism moving forward.  If not for a few costly mistakes, Jacksonville lost a game to Miami, which easily could have been a victory.  I like the Jaguars slightly more so to bounce back this week.

Bob: Jacksonville

Penny: Jacksonville

Cassie: Cleveland

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) At Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco has a short week and is on the road to play Minnesota. The Vikings easily defeated the Giants to open their year. Without a healthy and fully prepared starting roster, the 49ers soundly beat a decent team, while the Vikings beat a very bad one.

Bob: San Francisco

Penny: Minnesota

Cassie: San Francisco

Seattle Seahawks (-3) At New England Patriots

This game is one that will cause many people a lot of problems and likely should be avoided when placing wagers.  Against the Broncos, the Seahawks needed a big third quarter to win.  Denver debuted Bo Nix at quarterback, and he threw two interceptions, no touchdowns, and gained 138 yards in the air on incredibly short gains.  Seattle defeated a rookie quarterback playing a safe game plan.  On the road, New England stepped up and played solid defense in a low-scoring game that was still fun to watch.  Don’t sleep on the Patriots just yet.

Bob: New England

Penny: Seattle

Cassie: Seattle

New York Jets (-4) At Tennessee Titans

Chicago got nothing from Caleb Williams and needed just about everything to break right for them to steal a victory over Tennessee in week one.  Williams completed 48 percent of his passes for less than 100 yards.  The Bears still won.  New York ran into a stacked San Francisco club that puts one of the best defenses in the league on the field.  I could see the Titans making a defensive statement in this game.  If they can frustrate Aaron Rodgers the way they shut down Williams, the game could be there for them.  Coming off a week where Will Levis somehow looked worse than Williams; however, I just don’t see how they can.

Bob: New York

Penny: Tennessee

Cassie: Tennessee

New York Giants At Washington Commanders (-2.5)

New York is awful.  Even with Washington losing, Jayden Daniels ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns while completing more than 70 percent of his passes.

Bob: Washington

Penny: New York

Cassie: New York

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) At Arizona Cardinals

Arizona put up a good fight against Buffalo. It wasn’t by any means a fantastic game for Kyler Murray, and he’ll need to improve this week so that the Cardinals have a chance against the Rams.  Los Angeles was impressive playing Detroit and keeping the game somewhat close, but they are dealing with many injuries to key players.

Bob: Arizona

Penny: Arizona

Cassie: Arizona

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) At Denver Broncos

Who would have thought that Chris Boswell kicking six field goals would provide all of the scoring for Pittsburgh?  If anyone did, were they also of the opinion that the Steelers would have enough from that performance to defeat the Falcons?  Later in the season, Nix and the Broncos might be better positioned to challenge Pittsburgh.

Bob: Pittsburgh

Penny: Pittsburgh

Cassie: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

The Bengals and Joe Burrows have historically fared well against the Chiefs.  History can be misleading.  Last season, when these two teams met, Burrows didn’t play.  The clubs didn’t face each other in 2022 at all.  Yes, the Bengals swept the regular season and AFC Championship matchups against the Chiefs in the 2021 season.  Kansas City has two Super Bowl wins since then.  The Bengals looked disorganized against the Patriots to open the year.  The Chiefs delivered some strong play in taking out the Ravens, who are a tough conference foe.

Bob: Kansas City

Penny: Cincinnati

Cassie: Cincinnati

Chicago Bears At Houston Texans (-6.5)

Bill. Parcells delivered one of the greatest and most applicable NFL summations of all time with this: “You are what your record says you are.”  While the idea can be picked apart and challenged, the simplicity of it is brilliant.  Good teams win the games they are supposed to win, even if they look ugly.  You get the mark and move on.  Houston started the 2024 season with enormous expectations, went on the road, faced a divisional opponent, and won.  C. J. Stroud looked comfortable and composed, even if he didn’t control the game alone.  How did Chicago and Caleb Williams do?  A few paragraphs back to the review of Tennessee’s performance against him last week: “Chicago got nothing from Caleb Williams and needed just about everything to break right for them to steal a victory over Tennessee in week one.  Williams completed 48 percent of his passes for less than 100 yards.”  To overcome such terrible production and earn a victory, you might think the Bears had a solid running game.  You’d be wrong, as D’Andre Swift averaged 3 yards a carry to lead Chicago with 30 yards gained.

Bob: Houston

Penny: Houston

Cassie: Chicago

Atlanta Falcons At Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Does anyone remember how the talk about Atlanta on the rise greeted the signing of Kirk Cousins?  Does anyone remember all the rumors and intrigue surrounding Atlanta drafting Michael Penix Jr.?  Did anyone see Cousins get intercepted twice and throw for just 155 yards in a game where Pittsburgh only scored field goals for points and still won by 8?  Did anyone notice Saquon Barkley providing a terrific running game?

Bob: Philadelphia

Penny: Philadelphia

Cassie: Atlanta

Penny is dressed for the job, locked in and ready for the challenge of round two.

The Year To Date:

Bob: 11-2-3

Penny: 7-6-3

Cassie 6-7-3

Odds sourced from USA Today

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