Everyone Is A Winner, NFL Week Seven Set To Kick Off
By Bob Hocking,
7 hours ago
Bob Goes 11-3, With The Dogs 9-5, And A Competitive Week Six Of NFL Action. All Three Would Be Making Money With Real Wagers Against The Point Spread.
The NFL Features Marquee Games That Aren’t As Expected In Week Seven. There Are Also Some Games With Teams That Have No Chance.
Nine of the fourteen games in week six, 64.2%, featured teams winning by 10 or more points. Baltimore and Philadelphia were the biggest favorites of the week, and neither was in that group of nine.
Point spreads are not set up to predict the final scores of the games. They are designed to create an even amount of wagering on both sides.
Penny, Cassie, and I all delivered solid results.
Week Six:
Bob: 11-3
Penny: 9-5
Cassie: 9-5
The Year To Date:
Bob: 53-34-5 (60.32%)
Penny: 55-32-5 (62.5%)
Cassie: 46-41-5 (52.7%)
Penny and Cassie are focused and ready.
My selections won week six, and Penny improved to 62.5% for the year. All three of us are back above the traditional break-even point of 52.4%.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) At New Orleans Saints
New Orleans opened the season with two outstanding offensive performances. In the four games since, we’ve confirmed the two teams they defeated in those games aren’t that good (Carolina and Dallas).
Denver is on the schedule this week. The Broncos are the better team, but they have been unable to produce a consistent offensive threat with rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Last week, the Chargers got enough from Justin Herbert and J.K. Dobbins to defeat the Broncos. This week, the Saints will get enough from their offense to win.
Bob: New Orleans
Penny: New Orleans
Cassie: Denver
New England Patriots At Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) (In London, England)
On the surface, the spread in this game looks wrong. The reality exposed from a deep dive says otherwise. Only the Miami Dolphins have scored fewer points than New England in 2024. The Patriots’ defense isn’t doing much to keep opposing teams off the scoreboard. There is some merit here supporting the oddsmakers.
Unfortunately, Jacksonville has looked miserable, with Doug Pederson on the cusp of being let go by the Jaguars. A victory over Indianapolis is the only bright spot in a year that appears headed for questions, few answers, and an offseason that involves major changes.
The difference in the game is the beginning of the Drake Maye era in New England. In his first start, Maye and the Patriots were decent on offense. The remainder of the year will have good and bad moments, but the transition to Maye should be enough to win this game.
Bob: New England
Penny: Jacksonville
Cassie: New England
Seattle Seahawks At Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Seattle started the season strong, with three wins. The team has looked anything but strong since, losing three games, including to a struggling San Francisco club. It’s hard to see how the Seahawks improve this week, as they face an Atlanta team that appears to have settled into a rhythm on offense.
Bob: Atlanta
Penny: Seattle
Cassie: Atlanta
Tennessee Titans At Buffalo Bills (-9)
Tennessee scored 31 points against Miami in week four. That is the only game this season where the Titans have scored more than 17 points. That futility will continue this week.
I’ve often said a vague first look at any game should include the idea of whether you believe the underdog has any chance of winning. If not, be careful wagering on them to cover. The Titans cannot defeat the Bills. The point spread is big, but there is no reason to believe Tennessee will be competitive in any way.
Bob: Buffalo
Penny: Buffalo
Cassie: Tennessee
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) At Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati against Cleveland provides us with another example of the underdog theory. The Browns cannot win the game. The Bengals will approach it as one where they never let the Browns believe otherwise.
Bob: Cincinnati
Penny: Cleveland
Cassie: Cleveland
Houston Texans At Green Bay Packers (-3)
Nico Collins missing this game is the biggest difficulty for Houston. His absence sets the stage for a Green Bay win.
Jordan Love has been playing well since his return to the field. The Texans could win this game, but they won’t.
Bob: Green Bay
Penny: Green Bay
Cassie: Houston
Miami Dolphins At Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
There’s a reason the Colts are favored. Miami has been awful this season. On offense, no team has performed as poorly as the Dolphins.
Coming off a bye week, Miami has a chance to reach a 3-3 record with a win over Indianapolis. The Dolphins still have weapons in place, presenting a dangerous opponent on the field.
Bob: Miami
Penny: Indianapolis
Cassie: Miami
Detroit Lions At Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
This is easily the most exciting game of the season to date. The NFC North teams have been brilliant so far, and here we have the top two teams in the division facing each other.
Minnesota has proven they have a well-balanced team, strong defense, and a game plan that stresses ball control and patience. The Vikings should not lose the game by making mistakes.
Detroit lost to a good Tampa Bay team. They enter this contest 4-1 and play well in all areas.
Bob: Detroit
Penny: Minnesota
Cassie: Detroit
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) At New York Giants
Philadelphia is facing critiques and outcries calling for the dismissal of their head coach. Consider that when looking over a season where they defeated Green Bay, and their two losses are to division-leading Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The Eagles have been so inconsistent and ineffective that 3-2 with a good win and two understandable losses has their head coach on the hot seat.
The Giants are not as bad as many are claiming. They are also not good. Take the Eagles.
Bob: Philadelphia
Penny: Philadelphia
Cassie: Philadelphia
Las Vegas Raiders At Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
How bad is Las Vegas? The list would take too long to review. The Raiders shocked the Ravens in week two and have only beaten the Browns since. All four losses have been by at least 12 points.
Bob: Los Angeles
Penny: Las Vegas
Cassie: Los Angeles
Carolina Panthers At Washington Commanders (-7.5)
This is another game where the underdog has no chance of winning. Washington has been playing well all season and is the better team.
Bob: Washington
Penny: Carolina
Cassie: Carolina
Kansas City Chiefs At San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
When everyone is getting on a bandwagon, you should consider getting off. Andy Reid’s record coming off a bye week is being trumpeted in all corners. It is impressive, at 21-4. It is also the reason I’m selecting San Francisco.
When the 2024 season began, this was a marquee matchup. It remains a great contest, with reasons to select either team. The 49ers have too many injuries to confidently know who may be playing. The Chiefs have been underwhelming on offense so far and are facing problems with their depth.
Bob: San Francisco
Penny: Kansas City
Cassie: Kansas City
New York Jets (-1.5) At Pittsburgh Steelers
The questions at quarterback for Pittsburgh hint at more being wrong under the surface than you might expect from a 4-2 team tied for its division lead. Russell Wilson is expected to get the start at quarterback for the Steelers.
The Jets will be disappointing for the remainder of the season. This week, however, the reunion of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will take advantage of an opponent looking for answers.
Bob: New York
Penny: Pittsburgh
Cassie: Pittsburgh
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The matchup provides an interesting conflict in strengths and weaknesses.
Baltimore thrives on the running game. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry form a superb rushing tandem. The Ravens’ defense is one of the best at stopping the run.
Tampa Bay has a weak defense overall, though it does ok against the run. The Buccaneers on offense present their best weapons in the passing attack.
Bob: Tampa Bay
Penny: Baltimore
Cassie: Tampa Bay
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) At Arizona Cardinals
If you review the season, you’ll see that the Chargers present no surprises. Injuries, specifically to quarterback Justin Herbert, have limited the club on offense. The Los Angeles defense has been phenomenal in keeping points off the board. It doesn’t feel like they should be 3-2, but when the schedule and results are presented, it makes sense.
Marvin Harrison Jr. may miss this game as he recovers from a concussion. His absence provides a big obstacle for an offense that has continuously been unable to find a leader. Kyler Murray is acceptably accurate as a quarterback, but all his completions tend to be for short yardage.
Bob: Los Angeles
Penny: Arizona
Cassie: Arizona
Outside playtime has become a bit more serious in recent weeks.
Odds sourced from USA Today
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