Extreme heat days are becoming more common. Is Wilmington ready?

August in Wilmington began like the last few weeks of July in the Cape Fear region ended − under a heat advisory.

With heat indexes away from the coast pushing well into the triple digits, residents were advised by the National Weather Service's Wilmington office to "limit prolonged outdoor exposure and drink plenty of water."

Aside from a soaking by Tropical Storm Debby in early August, temperatures have remained toasty for much of spring and summer. The searing heat was mixed with extended periods of dry weather that started in late spring mixed with a few strong thunderstorms, which was enough to pull most of the Wilmington area out of an extended summer drought by the start of August.

Experts say North Carolinians better get used to summers being hotter and more challenging to handle, and that's going to bring with it a host of problems that can largely go unnoticed because they often build slowly over time.

"You can't look out your window and say it's an extreme heat day like you can with a hurricane, tornado or bad storm," said Dr. Jordan Clark, senior policy associate at Duke University's Heat Policy Innovation Hub . "It's very subtle and somewhat invisible, but incredibly impactful."

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Heating up

The world is warming. Federal researchers said that 2023 represented the hottest year recorded on Earth since record-keeping started, and 2024 is already on pace to smash that. Climatologists said July 22 was the Earth's hottest day on record .

The rising temperatures − and their impact on fueling unnatural disasters − aren't just being seen in far-flung parts of the globe, but in the United States and close to home here in North Carolina.

According to NOAA, there were 28 weather and climate disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 22 in 2020, tallying a price tag of at least $92.9 billion. The costliest 2023 event was the Southern/Midwestern drought and heat wave that caused an estimated $14.5 billion in damages.

Researchers say the rising number of big-cost disasters the United States is experiencing is largely a result of the impacts of human-induced climate change on the environment and foreshadows a trend that's going to get worse in coming years.

In the Tar Heel State, climate change is leading to more intense hurricanes and expanded areas that can support these stronger storms. As the planet and particularly the oceans warm, scientists warn that tropical storms will grow in size, strength and reach as they draw fuel from increasingly hot waters. Ironically, along with the heavier storm impacts, the changing weather also means North Carolina is likely to see extended periods of hot weather and drought between intense rain events.

According to the 2020 N.C. Climate Science Report , most parts of the Tar Heel State are projected to see at least two to three additional weeks of very hot days − maximum temperature of 95 degrees or higher − by 2040.

The First Street Foundation, a New York-based research and technology group focused on climate change risk, forecasts that hot days in Wilmington − any day above a “feels like” temperature of 104 degrees − are expected to increase from about seven a year in the early 2020s to 19 in 30 years. And 30 years ago, the likelihood of a three day or longer heat wave in Wilmington was 14%. Today, it's 50%, and First Street estimates that number will rise to 86% in 2050.

"The evidence is overwhelming that the world is warming, and we're going to have to learn how to best mitigate some of those impacts," Clark said.

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Not built to handle the heat

But dealing with unnatural disasters like scorching temperatures isn't as easy as it sounds, especially as communities weren't designed to handle extreme heat events − even in a place like North Carolina where enduring heat and humidity is considered a time-honored tradition.

The development of post-World War II neighborhoods that embraced suburbia and the automobile have created wide swathes of heat-sucking asphalt and other materials that retain heat during the day and then radiate it back out at night, limiting the time areas have to cool down. A lack of investment in urban forests and green spaces, especially in lower-income areas, has exacerbated the problem and created urban heat islands , where temperatures can be significantly higher than other parts of a community.

Workers in outdoor work activities like agriculture and construction also are feeling the impacts of the rising temperatures and more frequent excessively hot days.

Some states, like California, have implemented rules to help farm workers and those employed in other outdoor activities to deal with the increasing danger of warmer temperatures, with common requirements including shade, hydration access and mandatory rest breaks.

But other states, like Florida, have rejected such moves, with the Sunshine State going as far as adopting a new law July 1 that bans local governments from implementing mandatory heat breaks and other measures for workers. Florida doesn't have any state-level rules to help protect outdoor workers.

North Carolina doesn't have any mandatory regulations to help outdoor workers deal with the heat, beyond "recommendations" to create and maintain a safe and habitable work environment.

According to the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, emergency department visits for heat-related illnesses surged between mid-June and mid-July as the extreme heat that had gripped much of the nation moved into the Southeast. In the Wilmington area for the week of July 21-27, Brunswick County saw the most heat-related medical visits at 4.3 per 100,000 people. The state average this summer is 2.3 per 100,000 people.

Developing responses to extreme heat

Heat already kills more people in the United States each year than hurricanes, floods and tornadoes combined, according to the National Weather Service. But while the damage caused by extreme heat is well known, the tools in the toolbox for states and local communities to deal with it are still being developed.

Part of the problem is quantifying the cost of prolonged heat waves. Heat-related losses don't qualify for a federal disaster declaration under the 1988 Stafford Act, although dozens of environmental, health and labor groups recently banded together to petition the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to change that.

Such a move could free up federal financial resources to help communities better prepare to handle climate change, such as retrofitting older buildings to make them more energy efficient, building additional cooling centers, providing more fans to low-income residents, or offering more heat-related medical treatments and services.

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While not the financial windfall of a FEMA disaster declaration, other federal agencies are developing programs to help fund policies, programs and projects to counter the impacts of climate change.

State governments also are stepping up, with several North Carolina agencies teaming up with Duke to develop a heat action plan toolkit to help communities adapt and build resilience to extreme heat

"It offers communities a wide variety of options on how to mitigate heat over the long term and respond to extended heat crises and the health impacts they can cause," Clark said of the toolkit, noting that it also includes ways to establish early warning systems of an impending heat crisis for vulnerable populations.

At the community level, many local governments − including Wilmington − are actively or planning to create urban "temperature" maps that show where the hottest neighborhoods are located and what can be done to lower their temperatures. In many cases, that involves looking to Mother Nature's to help cool areas off by planting more trees and creating additional green spaces.

The private sector also is getting involved, with architects and developers − often with prodding and sometimes incentives from local officials − integrating heat-dissipating measures like shaded paths, cool surface materials, and features that optimize airflow into their projects.

But extreme heat remains a slow-moving disaster that isn't as "sexy" when it comes to securing disaster funding as a roof-ripping tornado or a hurricane that's impacted multiple states.

"It's not as prominent or has that public face of human resilience that other disasters have," Clark said. "But we're already seeing a lot of impacts from extreme heat, and people are acutely aware of that, and that's prompting a lot of the interest and push for change that we're now seeing."

Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMcGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from the Green South Foundation and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.

This article originally appeared on Wilmington StarNews: Extreme heat days are becoming more common. Is Wilmington ready?