Penn State Football Preview, Best Players, Top Transfers, Season Prediction, Win Total 2024

Penn State College Football Preview 2024

If Michigan could do it …

Penn State has settled into a weird spot of being the No. 1 program in college football that seems like it should be in the club, but the name is spelled wrong on the bouncer’s VIP list.

It’s not a does-least-with-most thing like a Texas A&M, and it’s not a can’t-break-glass-ceiling thing because of a slight lack of talent like a Wisconsin - at least before the last few seasons. And it’s not Oregon, because it already played in a CFP National Championship.

Penn State has been RIGHT there. 2020 was 2020, and 2021 was acknowledged to be a holding pattern season for 2022.

And what popped out of that was a 21-5 run with a Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl loss to Ole Miss which just doesn’t matter - it’s a non-CFP bowl game; whoop-dee-doo - and four losses to …

It’s just this simple - Penn State has a Michigan and Ohio State problem.

It has a downfield-passing-problem - more on that in a moment - but really, it’s been good enough to have nice things and can’t get them.

How good has Penn State been? Had there been a 12-team CFP in place, the Nittany Lions would’ve been in the tournament in six of the last eight seasons with a 4-seed in 2016.

Penn State has lost to Michigan three seasons in a row, and it dropped seven straight to the Buckeyes and 11 of the last 12.

And all of that is why 1) no program in the country should be happier about the expanded College Football Playoff than Penn State, 2) no one welcome in expansion with a bigger more loving hug, and 3) no program has more pressure to FINALLY GET INTO THE CFP.

Ohio State is a home game - and, just a guess, but the school will probably have the wacky idea that Penn State will be better at college football because fans in the stands will be wearing white t-shirts - there’s no Oregon on the slate, and there’s … no … Michigan.

That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy - at USC, at Wisconsin, Ohio State, Washington; try that for your midseason stretch - and there are still a ton of glitches to fix, but remember, it wasn’t all that long ago that 2020 Michigan was Jim-Harbaugh-on-hot-seat mediocre.

No excuses this year. Penn State has to get into the College Football Playoff,

Penn State Football Preview 2024: Offense

- What, you didn’t enjoy Penn State’s brutally painful inability to throw and complete a downfield pass? It’s not that the passing game didn’t work - it did, for the most part, averaging over 200 yards per game - and the O overall was second in the Big Ten behind Michigan’s attack.

But you don’t have a quarterback like Drew Allar and a receiving corps full of Penn State-caliber playmakers and average 11.4 yards per completion.

Kansas averaged 15.6 yards per completion. Why do you care? Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is taking over the Nittany Lion attack.

- Drew Allar was better than you think he was. Yes, he needs to compete more than 60% of his throws, and yes, there has to be more down the field, but part of his job was to not screw up and let the defense clean up the rest.

Allar threw for over 2,600 yards with 25 touchdowns and two picks. Backup Beau Pribula isn’t Allar, but he’s far more dangerous on the move and has enough time logged in to be okay if needed.

The receiving corps lost leading man KeAndre Lambert-Smith to Auburn, but Tyler Warren is an all-star tight end catching 34 passes with seven scores.

There’s no excuse not to start stretching the field with several decent receiver options, and Ohio State’s Julian Fleming will matter on the outside after catching 79 passes for 963 yards and seven scores in four years with the Buckeyes.

- The O line lost some really, really good parts - only one starter is back. You don’t get better after losing tackles Olu Fashanu and Caedan Wallace, but Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci is a nice get for one spot. The interior has to fill in around veteran Sal Wormley at guard.

The running back rotation is as talented as any in the country. The 1-2 punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should combine for 2,000 yards if the passing game keeps defenses from selling out against the run.

Penn State Football Preview 2024: Defense

- The defense might have picked apart by the high-tempo Ole Miss attack in the bowl loss, it still finished No. 1 in the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, was No. 2 behind Michigan in total defense, and third in scoring D.

Even after losing pass rushing Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson, expect more of the same because the pressure comes from everywhere, and …

- Is Abdul Carter ready to blow up into a true superstar? He was already amazing in his outside linebacker role, and now he’ll play more as an end/edge rusher. Turn him loose, and good luck.

Dani Dennis-Sutton should thrive in a bigger role on the other side of Carter, and the tackles who stuffed up everything - Zane Durant and Dvon Ellies - are back in the interior along with a whole lot of depth.

The line will be a brick wall, and the linebackers will once again be great, but in a different configuration. Carter will still effectively be a hybrid, and Kobe King should be one of the team’s leading tackler again in the middle after finishing second on the team with 59 stops.

- The Penn State secondary can hit. Veteran Kevin Winston led the team with 61 tackles, Jaylen Reed came up with 46, and all should be fine at the safety spots with several options to play around with.

The corner situation isn’t exactly a question mark, but losing Kalen King and Johnny Dixon hurts. Getting AJ Harris from Georgia makes things a whole lot easier, and Cam Miller is more than fine at the other spot.

Key To The Penn State Football Season

Just complete passes.
For all of the screaming and yelling about not being able to hit the deep shots, everything is fine as long as Drew Allar is hitting 65ish%. That was the problem against Michigan and Ohio State - Penn State just couldn’t make a dent in the close games because it couldn’t get the midrange passes working, either.

Yes, playing the Ohio State and Michigan defenses were part of it, but Penn State’s offense should’ve been good enough to convert more than 7% of its third down conversions against the Buckeyes and a mere 29% against Michigan.

Those were the two worst third down performances of the Nittany Lion season. That’s why …

Penn State Key Player

Julian Fleming, WR Sr.
He stepped back a wee bit last year at Ohio State catching just 26 balls and averaging ten yards per grab, but in 2022 he averaged almost 16 yards per catch with six touchdowns.

It helped to have CJ Stroud throwing to him two years ago, and he should be able to shine now on the outside of the Penn State offense. At least that’s the team’s hope.

Penn State Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: AJ Harris, CB Soph.
He only made eight tackles last year in a limited role at Georgia, but talent-wise it’s all there to be special. A superstar prospect last year, he was a monster pickup by a Nittany Lion coaching staff that needed a young option to come in for one of the corner gigs.

Top Transfer Out: Dante Cephas, WR Sr.
Losing KeAndre Lambert-Smith to Auburn was big, but not having Cephas around anymore might turn out to be a bigger deal if the receiving corps can’t do more deep.

Cephas only made 22 catch for 246 yards and two scores, but he’s a flash who averaged close to 15 yards per catch at Kent State and didn’t shine like he was supposed to. Watch what he does this year at Kansas State.

Penn State Key Game

at USC, Oct. 26
Yeah, the Ohio State game will get all the play, but that’s not exactly a MUST win if the Nittany Lions can take care of business before that.

Barring a total biff somewhere, this is a four game regular season. The Washington game is at home after dealing with the Buckeyes, and there’s a week off before going to Wisconsin. Before that, the Nittany Lions go to LA to kick off the four-game stretch.

USC and Penn State have played three times since 2000 - the Trojans won them all.

10 Best Penn State Football Players

1. Abdul Carter, LB/EDGE Jr.
2. Kevin Winston, S Sr.
3. Drew Allar, QB Jr.
4. Dani Dennis-Sutton, DE Jr.
5. Tyler Warren, TE Sr.
6. Nicholas Singleton, RB Jr.
7. Kaytron Allen, RB Jr.
8. Kobe King, LB Jr.
9. Dvon Ellies, DT Sr.
10. Zane Durant, DT Jr.

Penn State 2023 Fun Stats

- 3rd Quarter Points: Penn State 100, Opponents 3

- 2 Point Conversions: Opponents 2-for-3, Penn State 0-for-3

- Sacks: Penn State 41 for 275 yards, Opponents 13 for 107 yards

Penn State Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season

There can’t and shouldn’t be anything less than a ten-win regular season with a shot to get to the Big Ten Championship.

Missing Indiana, Northwestern, and Rutgers hurts, but not playing Michigan State this season isn’t a bad deal and missing Nebraska should matter. But not playing Michigan, Oregon, and Iowa is a really, really big positive.

Yes, Ohio State and Washington are on the slate, but both of them have to come to Happy Valley. The road games at USC and Wisconsin are before dealing with the Buckeyes and Huskies, but there’s a week off to rest up in the middle of the four-game stretch.

Going to Minnesota should be dangerous, Maryland will be okay, and starting out at West Virginia won’t be a breeze, but again, win double-digit games, get into the expanded College Football Playoff.

Set The Penn State Win Total At … 10

Likely Wins: Bowling Green, Kent State, at Purdue, UCLA

50/50 Games: Illinois, Maryland, at Minnesota, Ohio State, at USC, Washington, at West Virginia, at Wisconsin

Likely Losses: No apparent sure-thing losses on the Penn State slate

2024 Penn State Football Schedule

Aug 31 at West Virginia
Sept 7 Bowling Green
Sept 14 OPEN DATE
Sept 21 Kent State
Sept 28 Illinois
Oct 5 UCLA
Oct 12 at USC
Oct 19 OPEN DATE
Oct 26 at Wisconsin
Nov 2 Ohio State
Nov 9 Washington
Nov 16 at Purdue
Nov 23 at Minnesota
Nov 30 Maryland

Missing: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon, Rutgers

Related: College Football Preview 2024: CFN 134 Team Previews, Rankings, Top Players, Win Totals & Schedules