Hurricane Milton likely caused $60 billion in insured losses, early estimate shows

Hurricane Milton was a one-in-1,000-year rainfall event for the Tampa, Florida, area, with wind gusts around 100 miles per hour. The roof blew off the Tampa Bay Rays’ Tropicana Field, which was supposed to house hurricane workers. Hurricane Milton has torn through Florida, and now comes the recovery .

A Morningstar analysis ahead of the storm estimated Milton’s damage could cause between $60 billion to $100 billion in insured losses . For reference, Hurricane Katrina’s insured losses totaled $100 billion in today’s dollars.

In an interview with Straight Arrow News Thursday, Oct. 10, Morningstar Senior Vice President Nadja Dreff said based on Milton's landfall, the investment research company expects the resulting losses to be on the lower end of the range.

"Instead of the hurricane hitting head on to Tampa, we know that it actually hit slightly below, which does make a difference to what our insured loss estimates are going to be and does lower them," Dreff, who is sector lead for Global Insurance and Pension Ratings, said.

At this point, Dreff estimates insured losses may reach $60 billion, given the forceful winds and flooding Milton brought through the state of Florida. That includes about $10 billion from the federal flood insurance program for "substantial" damages from flooding.

Insured losses from Hurricane Helene , which made landfall two weeks before Milton and devastated inland communities, will be much smaller than Milton, according to Dreff. She said insured losses there may reach up to $10 billion but are much less in comparison due to the population density in Milton's path.

Katrina, which devastated the South in 2004, remains the largest insured-loss hurricane in the U.S.

Hurricane Ian, from 2022, is second, with about $60 billion in insured losses . Dreff expects Milton could be on par with Ian.

As a result, despite insurance prices stabilizing in Florida and surrounding areas as of late, the latest storms will likely lead to higher reinsurance rates , Dreff said.

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