Milky Way has 50-50 chance of colliding with neighboring galaxy

By Dean Murray via SWNS

Scientists say the Milky Way has a 50/50 chance of smashing into our neighboring galaxy.

Researchers have challenged the standing belief that our galaxy is on a collision course with the Andromeda galaxy.

Previously, scientists, including NASAs, thought it was certain that in around five billion years our galaxies would merge into a combined elliptical galaxy.

However, a new study has considered the latest and most accurate observations by the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes, along with recent consensus mass estimates to derive possible future scenarios.

The team, which includes members from Durham University and the University of Helsinki , has revealed that other galaxies - namely, M33 and the Large Magellanic Cloud - distinctly and radically affect the Milky Way -Andromeda orbit.

The paper says: "While including M33 increases the merger probability, the orbit of the Large Magellanic Cloud runs perpendicular to the Milky Way-Andromeda orbit and makes their merger less likely."

They add: "In the full system, we find that uncertainties in the present positions, motions, and masses of all galaxies leave room for drastically different outcomes and a probability of close to 50% that there is no Milky Way-Andromeda merger during the next 10 billion years."

NASA had previously said: "Travelling at 250,000 mph, the neighboring giant spiral is scheduled to make a head-on encounter with our galaxy about 4 billion years from now. Subsequent clashes over 2 billion years will give rise to a combined elliptical galaxy, replete with stars scattered in new orbits. It seems Earth, the sun and planets in our solar system will survive the crash but take on new coordinates in the cosmos."

The paper - "Apocalypse When? No Certainty of a Milky Way - Andromeda Collision" - is yet to be peer-reviewed.

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