Democrats’ future, abortion, legal pot: 5 questions for Florida’s general election

The primary election is over, but the battle for the future of Florida is just getting started.

Republicans and Democrats will slug it out over the next 11 weeks up and down the ballot, from the main attraction showdown between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to putting legal pot and abortion rights in the state constitution.

There’s no shortage of storylines as eyes turn to Nov. 5, with Democrats facing an existential election, for instance, and incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott setting his sights on more than just his reelection.

Here’s a look at five big questions heading into the general election:

Will Democrats show a pulse in Florida elections?

The 21st century hasn’t been kind to Florida Democrats.

For more than 100 years prior to the turn of the millennium, Democrats held sway in the Sunshine State, holding the governor’s mansion for all but eight years between 1877 and 1999.

Since then, despite a few close elections involving recounts, Democrats have been mostly shut out of the reins of power in Tallahassee. The latest low point came earlier this month when Republicans gained a 1 million voter registration advantage over Democrats, which had held the lead over the GOP until 2021.

Republicans have a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the Legislature and hold all statewide elected positions. Gov. Ron DeSantis won a narrow victory in 2018 then blew out Democrat Charlie Crist in 2022 by 20 points. He’s likened the Florida Democratic Party to a “dead carcass on the side of the road.”

Democrats won’t return to their former dominance any time soon but they could take some steps back toward relevance by putting a few cracks in Florida’s “red wall.”

Flipping a few seats in the U.S. House and the state Legislature, and running Trump and Scott close in the President and U.S. Senate races could help convince national donors who’ve given up on Florida to recommit to the Sunshine State.

Otherwise, Democrats could remain an afterthought in Florida, which was considered the ultimate swing state just a few years ago.

Can Kamala Harris break through the red Republican wall?

When Trump won the presidency in 2016, he defeated Hillary Clinton by 1.2% in Florida. In 2020 when he lost, he nonetheless took Florida by 3.3% over President Joe Biden. And DeSantis’ landslide victory in 2022 seemed to cement Florida’s status as a comfortably red state.

But Harris’ entrance into the race in July, after Biden stepped down from the nomination following a disastrous debate performance in June, has reset the campaign. Democrats now believe Harris will at least put Florida in play.

A University of North Florida poll released July 30, though, shows Trump holding a 49%-42% advantage over Harris in Florida.

Democrats also have significant hurdles to overcome to topple the GOP’s dominance at the top of the ticket. The voter registration advantage for Republicans continues to grow, and their get-out-the-vote efforts have consistently surpassed the Democrats’.

If Harris keeps the race close in Florida, it could have significant down ballot effects for Democrats and for the pot and abortion ballot measures.

Will Rick Scott win a second term?

Every single election Rick Scott has contested has been very close.

He’s also won every time.

Democrats know that all too well and will hope former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell can buck the trend and replace him in the U.S. Senate.

Scott served as governor 2011-19, upsetting the GOP establishment at the time by overcoming then-Attorney General Bill McCollum to win the nomination before narrowly defeating Democrat Alex Sink in 2010.

For the U.S. Senate, he defeated incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in 2018 by 0.2% of the vote after a recount.

Mucarsel-Powell was an administrator at Florida International University who won a U.S. House race in Miami in 2018. But she was defeated in her bid for reelection in 2020 by now-Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Miami.

The UNF poll shows Scott in a tighter race than Trump is against Harris, but he’s still leading Mucarsel-Powell 47% to 43%.

National Democratic donors, however, have been hesitant to get involved in Florida races in recent election cycles, opting to put their money into races in more competitive states. Scott, a multi-millionaire former hospital executive, has also never shied away from putting his own money into his elections, meaning Mucarsel-Powell could be significantly outgunned in a state with numerous and expensive media markets.

The race is important not just for Democrats hoping to regain a foothold in Florida, but for Rick Scott’s standing in the Senate. He’s running to replace U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, as Republican Leader. Scott lost to McConnell for the leadership position after the 2022 elections but McConnell is stepping down as leader after the general election.

Should Scott win that race, too, and should Republicans regain control of the Senate, he’d set the agenda for the upper chamber starting in 2025. He’ll have to overcome Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota.

Can GOP and Ron DeSantis take down the abortion amendment?

For DeSantis, the anti-abortion movement in Florida will be effectively squashed if Amendment 4 were to pass. But for abortion rights advocates, access to abortion itself is at stake.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court issued its Dobbs decision in 2022, overturning Roe v. Wade and eliminating a federal right to abortion while putting the issue to the states, Florida passed a series of laws limiting the procedure.

A ban on abortions after 15 weeks was passed by lawmakers in 2022. They followed up with a six-week ban that took effect on May 1, a month after the Florida Supreme Court upheld the 15-week ban.

That same day, however, the court allowed Amendment 4 to go on the November ballot.

DeSantis, who appointed four of the current seven Florida Supreme Court justices, has criticized that decision and vowed to fight the measure. He set up the Florida Freedom Fund political committee to oppose both Amendment 4 and Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for recreational purposes.

Through Aug. 15 the committee has raised $2.5 million and spent $116,000 since it formed in May.

DeSantis’ committee faces an uphill battle to convince voters: The recent UNF poll found 69% support Amendment 4 while 23% are against it, easily clearing the 60% threshold needed to become law.

How will voters feel about the pot amendment?

The first bill DeSantis signed into law in 2019 legalized medical marijuana, a measure he pushed the Legislature to pass. He’s less keen on completely legal weed for recreational use.

DeSantis has consistently slammed Amendment 3, saying it will allow people to carry around large amounts – 80 joints, he said he’s heard from law enforcement officials – and public places will reek of pot, he contends.

Supporters of the amendment have noted the Legislature will still be able to restrict the use of marijuana in public places. Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota, a prominent backer of the measure, has proposed a bill to ban smoking and vaping in outdoor public places, including city streets, sidewalks and public parks.

The amendment is largely bankrolled by Trulieve, a leading medical marijuana company in Florida that has given $64.8 million to Smart & Safe Florida, the political committee that pushed to get the measure on the ballot. That’s 90% of the $71.8 million the committee raised through Aug. 15. It has spent $56.3 million, although $41 million of that was spent just getting it on the ballot through petition signatures.

The UNF poll showed 64% of respondents favored Amendment 3, with 31% opposed, which would be enough support to clear the 60% threshold needed to pass.

Gray Rohrer is a reporter with the USA TODAY Network-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at grohrer@gannett.com . Follow him on X: @GrayRohrer .

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Democrats’ future, abortion, legal pot: 5 questions for Florida’s general election